Weather Forecasting: Myth or Reality
Is it Possible to Accurately Forecast the Weather Months in Advance?
Regardless of the controversy surrounding the science behind the almanac, nearly all meteorologists agree that forecasting long range, or any time frame further than 10 days ahead, is possible. The difficult part is getting the forecasts correct.
Knight explained the different criteria between long-range and short-range forecasts: "The information that's available in a longer term is much more of the trend variety, so ... the temperatures will average above or below normal, or a heat wave or a cold wave. It's nothing specific, as in short-range."
Predicting Weather for Big Name Corporations
Yet, giving specifics is exactly what a handful of meteorologists are daring to do by predicting next year's weather right now. For Bill Kirk, CEO of Weather Trends International, forecasting general weather trends a year from now is only the beginning. His predictions already include daily temperatures, weekly amounts of rain and monthly amounts of snow one year from now.
His clientele list reads like a who's who of name brand products. "We work with huge corporations: Wal-Mart, Khol's, Anheiser Busch, Duraflame, I mean these are huge corporations that, for six years ... for the fees we charge if we were wrong, they wouldn't subscribe next year," he said.
Kirk is quick to defend the data and techniques behind his company's results. "Traditional meteorology, as you know, does not work beyond 14 days. You cannot use that to project next year's weather. So, we have a proprietary process — statistics, math, climate, secret formula, if you will — that projects these trends."
But why would companies selling beer, first aid or even orange juice be so concerned about weather in the first place? Kirk said that what's happening outside affects when and how much we dig into our wallets.
"We consume more orange juice — 60,000 more bottles of orange juice — for every one degree colder it is nationally," he said. "So, this week, here, is 13 degrees colder than it was a year ago. We're talking about hundreds of thousands, if not millions of boxes of orange juice that are being sold because of weather."
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