Buying Climate Ratings Rise as Holiday Season Begins

Americans' ratings of the buying climate advanced this week to their best level in four and a half years -- encouraging news for retailers at the start of the holiday sales season.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at +1 on its scale of +100 to -100, matching its high for the year -- likewise, its best since April 2002. It's risen sharply from a recent low of -19 in late August.

Among the components of the index, 44 percent call it a good time to spend money -- not a majority (it very rarely is) but up four points just this week, up 10 points since mid-September and eight points better than at this time last year. As many rate the national economy positively, and as usual more, 64 percent, say their own finances are good.

Each of these is above its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985. The index overall, at +1, is well above its average of -11 this year and its long-term average of -9 in weekly polls since December 1985.

Ratings of the economy, buying climate and personal finances are, respectively, 11, 12 and seven points higher than at the index's recent low in late August.

A variety of factors have likely contributed to improved confidence -- lower oil and gasoline prices, higher wages, mild inflation and a higher stock market, among them.

TREND -- The index is 20 points above its low for the year, reached in May and again in August amid soaring gasoline prices. It's been much better -- a high of +38 in January 2000 -- as well as, much worse, a low of -50 in February 1992.

Its standing above 0, in any case, is a notable event. The index was in positive territory in the go-go days from spring 1997 to fall 2001, but otherwise only briefly in mid-1986 and in spring 2002.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +56 among higher-income Americans while -33 among those with the lowest incomes, +16 among college graduates while -21 among people who haven't finished high school, +10 among whites while -48 among blacks and +8 among men while -5 among women.

The index is strongest, +16, in the West, and weakest, -14, in the Midwest. It's +1 and +2 in the Northeast and South, respectively.