Softer Buying Climate Ratings Push Confidence off its Perch

Softer ratings of the buying climate pushed consumer confidence off its perch this week, but as 2006 draws to a close, consumer views still remain within sight of their best in the last 4½ years.

One year-end letdown is a slight decline in positive ratings of the buying climate: A month ago 44 percent of Americans called it a good time to buy things. Today, perhaps shopped out by the Christmas holiday, 39 percent say so. And positive ratings of the national economy slipped this week from the more than five-year high they hit last week.

All told, the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -2 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared with +1 last week. That's still better than both its 2006 average, -10, and its recent low, -19, amid soaring gasoline prices last August.

INDEX -- The CCI survey, conducted weekly since late 1985, is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, buying climate and personal finances. This week, 46 percent say the economy's in good shape, six points above the long-term average. Last week's 48 percent was the most since August 2001.

As noted, 39 percent call it a good time to buy things, almost matching the long-term average of 38 percent. Sixty-two percent say their own finances are in good shape, five points above average.

TREND -- The CCI's average of -10 this year puts 2006 on track to be its best (narrowly) since 2001, thanks in large part to its rally since August. It's still a long way from its glory days, an average of +29 in 2000 (peaking at +38 in January 2000). But it's also been vastly worse -- an average of -44 in 1992, cratering at -50 that February.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups -- far better, for example, among whites, higher-income Americans and college graduates. It's +17 among men while -20 among women. And huge partisan differences remain: The CCI is +44 among Republicans, but -18 among independents and -20 among Democrats.