Confidence Stable

Consumer confidence is virtually unchanged from last week despite the country's single biggest one-week increase in the price of gasoline, suggesting either that consumers are toughing it out -- or that the shock hasn't hit home yet.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, about what it was last week, -8, and up from -11 two weeks ago. Gasoline prices, by contrast, have spiked in the past two weeks, up 26 cents a gallon to a nominal record of $2.55 for unleaded regular.

Gas prices, however, aren't the only game in town. Incomes have risen and overall consumer prices remain largely in check, with new car prices down by their biggest margin since 1975. Indeed, the gauge in the ABC/Post CCI most sensitive to inflation -- ratings of the buying climate -- has gained five points over the last two weeks, despite the gas price jump. And ratings of personal finances are four points better than their long-term average in this 19-year-old weekly survey.

EXPECTATIONS -- Consumers' expectations for the economy, measured separately from the current-conditions sentiment in the CCI, remain pessimistic overall. Just 16 percent of Americans say the economy is getting better, down a slight five points from last month, and also five points fewer than the long-term average.

Forty-one percent, meanwhile, say the economy is worsening. But pessimism was higher -- a two-year-peak of 51 percent -- in May.

INDEX -- The ABC/Post CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week, 41 percent rate the economy positively and 38 percent call it a good time to buy things, each within a point of its long-term average. More, 61 percent, say their own finances are in good shape, compared with an average of 57 percent.

TREND -- At -7, the index matches its best of the year, reached first March 6 and then again three weeks ago. It's been a lot better, peaking at an all-time high of +38 in January 2000; but also much worse, a low of -50 in February 1992. The index averages -9 in weekly polls since 1985.

GROUPS -- As usual, the CCI is higher overall in better-off groups. It's +45 among higher-income Americans while -55 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -24 among those who haven't finished high school, -1 among whites but -33 among blacks and +3 among men while -15 among women.

There's a regional component to expectations. Compared with peak pessimism three months ago, views that the economy is worsening have dropped significantly in the Midwest and South, while holding more stable in the West and Northeast.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty-one percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 42 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty-one percent say their own finances are excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-eight percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 35 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending August 14, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents August 3-14; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as cosponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

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