Confidence Shows Some Resilience

Consumer confidence showed some of its trademark resilience this week, holding its own after a recent fall despite a fresh spike in gasoline prices.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -20 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared to -22 last week and -23, its lowest since May 2003, the week before. The index had dived by 16 points from mid-August to mid-September, pushed by the rise in gas prices that accelerated after Hurricane Katrina.

Hurricane Rita delivered more of the same, with gas soaring by 13 cents a gallon in just the last week to $2.93 in U.S. Department of Energy data, the third-highest nominal price on record. The highest was $3.07 on Sept. 5.

The new spike threatens to turn confidence sour again: It hit its recent low two weeks after the Sept. 5 record.

While it's stiffened its spine in the last two weeks, confidence still is not good. At -20 the ABC/Post CCI is eight points below its 2005 average, 11 points below its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985 and 37 points below its level when George W. Bush was inaugurated in January 2001.

The index is based on ratings of the economy, the buying climate and personal finances. This week 32 percent rate the economy positively and 31 percent call it a good time to buy things, each eight points below its long-term average. Ratings of personal finances are doing better -- 57 percent say theirs are OK, matching the nearly 20-year average.

TREND -- The CCI started the year at -9 and reached -7 in March but has been battling gas prices ever since. It dipped to -19 in May, fought back to -7 in July and mid-August, then took its latest dive before stabilizing in the last two weeks.

While it's been much better -- an all-time high of +38 in January 2000 -- the CCI also has been far worse, averaging -44 across 1992, including a record low -50 that February.

GROUPS -- As usual, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +18 among higher-income Americans while -67 among those with the lowest incomes, -4 among college graduates while -40 among those who haven't finished high school, -13 among whites but -53 among blacks and -9 among men while -29 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-two percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 30 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-seven percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 56 percent from last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Oct. 2, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

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