Confidence Stable Overall

Overall consumer confidence held steady this week, but with changes across regions: Confidence has improved in the South since the Gulf Coast hurricanes, but has slipped to its worst in more than two years in the Northeast.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -19 on its scale of +100 to -100, virtually unchanged from last week, but up from its low of the year, -23 three weeks ago. The modest improvement parallels new federal data finding lower than expected post-hurricane job losses and gas prices that, while still high ($2.85 a gallon), are down eight cents this week and 22 cents lower than their Sept. 5 peak, $3.07.

REGIONS -- Confidence spiked downward in the South after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, with the index there losing 29 points from mid-August to mid-September, from +2 to -27, the lowest in more than two years. In the past few weeks it's inched back to -19, still worse than the 2005 average, -11.

The index meanwhile has dropped to -32 in the Northeast, much worse than its 2005 average there, -16, and its lowest in the region since June 2003. The index is -15 in the Midwest and -10 in the West, essentially matching its 2005 averages.

INDEX -- The index is based on ratings of the economy, the buying climate and personal finances. This week 32 percent nationwide rate the economy positively and as many call it a good time to buy things, respectively five and four points below their 2005 averages.

With inflation, consumer interest rates and unemployment still relatively low, personal finances are an important stabilizer in consumer views. Many more people, 58 percent, say their personal finances are OK, matching the 2005 average.

TREND -- The index fell dramatically, by 16 points from mid-August to mid-September, before leveling off lately. It's still six points off its 2005 average, -13, and 10 points below its long-term average, -9 in weekly polls since 1985.

The CCI started the year at -9 and reached -7 in March but has been battling gas prices ever since. It dipped to -19 in May, fought back to -7 in July and mid-August, then took its latest dive before stabilizing in the last three weeks.

While it's been much better in the past -- an all-time high of +38 in January 2000 -- the CCI also has been far worse, averaging -44 across 1992, including a record low -50 that February.

GROUPS -- As usual, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +25 among higher-income Americans while -71 among those with the lowest incomes, -3 among college graduates while -40 among those who haven't finished high school, -15 among whites but -44 among blacks and -10 among men while -26 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-two percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-eight percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 57 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 31 percent a week ago. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Oct. 9, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

Click here for PDF version with charts and data table.

Click here for more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.