Election-time Confidence Lower than Last Year

Candidates in 2005 elections around the country are facing an electorate that's noticeably crabbier about the economy than at this time in 2004: Consumer confidence, just above its long-term average a year ago, is well below it now.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -19 on its scale of +100 to -100, near its low for the year, -23 in mid-September. It was -5 at this time in 2004, good enough not to stand in the way of George W. Bush's re-election.

Indeed, a year ago consumer confidence was above its 2004 average. Today by contrast it's below its averages for 2005 and 2004 alike.

Confidence is somewhat less partisan than before the 2004 election, chiefly because it's worsened among Republicans while staying dismal among Democrats. Then, there was a 71-point gap in the ABC/Post CCI between Republicans (index of +35) and Democrats (-36). Today it's a 54-point gap: Republicans are less sanguine than a year ago, with an index of +15, while Democrats are about the same, -39. Independents have grown glummer, too.

INDEX -- The weekly ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, buying climate and personal finances. Just 33 percent now rate the economy positively and 32 percent call it a good time to spend money, respectively nine and 11 points below their levels a year ago.

Ratings of personal finances have been counterbalancing those views. They're 56 percent positive, about the same as before the 2004 vote.

TREND -- The overall index has wobbled slightly between -17 and -21 since October, when it settled down after dropping dramatically from -7 in mid-August to -23 in mid-September in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and $3 gas. Gas since has recovered to $2.38 -- its lowest since Aug. 8 -- but overall consumer confidence has not.

GROUPS -- As usual, the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +24 among higher-income Americans while -43 among those with the lowest incomes, -8 among college graduates while -38 among those who haven't finished high school, and -15 among whites but -44 among blacks. The index is -36 among women, compared with -1 among men.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-three percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-six percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 55 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 31 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Nov. 6, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as cosponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

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