Confidence Stable as Shopping Season Begins

Consumer confidence, which suffered significantly through soaring gas prices after the Gulf Coast hurricanes, has stabilized in negative but not uncomfortable territory -- better than it might have been for retailers in the holiday shopping season.

Skyrocketing gas prices after Hurricane Katrina brought confidence to its worst level in more than two years. But the tide turned in October as gas prices eased; they're back to $2.20 a gallon, down from more than $3, and confidence has steadied.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index now stands at -17 on its scale of +100 to -100, about the same as last week's -18. While lower than it was last year at this time, -4, the CCI has managed to stay in a narrow band between -17 and -21 since early October, after bottoming out at -23 on Sept. 18.

INDEX -- The weekly index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 36 percent rate the economy positively, 33 percent call it a good time to buy things and 55 percent say their personal finances are in good shape, each near its average for the year.

TREND -- At -17, the index is below its long-term average, -9 in weekly polls since December 1985, and far below its high, +38 in January 2000. But it's also been far worse, as low of -50 in February 1992 and an average of -44 in 1992 as a whole.

GROUPS -- As usual, confidence is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +36 among higher-income people while -57 among those with the lowest incomes, 0 among college graduates while -54 among those who haven't finished high school, -14 among whites but -40 among blacks and -3 among men but -31 among women.

There's also a huge partisan gap: The index is far higher among Republicans (+28) than it is among independents (-23) and particularly among Democrats (-43).

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-six percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good; unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 32 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Nov. 20, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as cosponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

Click here for PDF version with charts and data table.

Click here for more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.