Confidence Remains Stable

Consumer confidence remained steady this week, solidifying its recovery from its post-Katrina lows. After falling to its lowest level of the year in the aftermath of two devastating hurricanes, it's now returned close to its average for the year.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -14 on its scale of +100 to -100, essentially the same as last week, but up nine points since its low for the year, -23 on Sept. 18. It's now a scant point away from its 2005 average.

After spiking over $3 a gallon, gasoline prices have fallen to $2.15 a gallon. That's still 12 percent higher than a year ago, when this confidence index was six points better, -8, than it is this week.

INDEX -- The weekly ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the current national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 36 percent rate the economy positively, 37 percent call it a good time to buy things and 56 percent say their personal finances are in good shape, each near its average for the year.

TREND -- At -14 it's below its long-term average, -9, in weekly polls since December 1985. It reached an all-time high of +38 in January 2000 and an all-time low of -50 in February 1992. This year it's been as high as -7, most recently in mid-August.

GROUPS -- As usual, confidence is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +50 among higher-income people while -64 among those with the lowest incomes, +6 among college graduates while -63 among those who haven't finished high school, -10 among whites but -40 among blacks and -2 among men but -23 among women.

As has been the case all year, the index is far higher among Republicans (+34) than it is among independents (-24) and particularly among Democrats (-36).

Regionally, the index this week is best in the West (-5), compared with -19 in the Northeast, -15 in the Midwest and -14 in the South.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-six percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-six percent say their own finances are excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-seven percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 36 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Dec. 4, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as cosponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

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