Confidence Flat as Gas Prices Rise

After advancing steadily over the past month, consumer confidence settled this week as gasoline prices rose for a third week straight.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -10 on its scale of +100 to -100, essentially flat from -9 last week. It had gained nine points from mid-May to mid-June as gas prices abated. With prices edging back up (now at an average $2.16 per gallon), the index's recent ascent has halted.

Separately, economic pessimism, which had reached a two-year peak in May, has eased. A month ago 51 percent of Americans thought the national economy was getting worse; that's down to 43 percent now. But more think it's staying the same, not getting better.

INDEX -- The ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 38 percent rate the economy positively, and about as many, 39 percent, call it a good time to buy things. Most, 58 percent, say their own finances are in good shape. Each is within a point or two of its average in weekly polls since 1985.

TREND -- The index started the year at -9, matching its long-term average. It hit its 2005 peak, -7, on March 6, before dropping to a year-low of -19 on May 1. As noted, the index rebounded steadily from May 15 until last week before settling this week at -10.

The index peaked at +38 in January 2000 and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS -- The ABC/Post CCI is higher overall in better-off groups. It's +25 among higher-income Americans while -52 among those with the lowest incomes, +6 among college graduates while -48 among those who haven't finished high school, -5 among whites but -48 among blacks and -2 among men while -18 among women.

In terms of expectations, economic pessimism has dropped over the past month among those aged 45 and up, while it's remained relatively stable among those under 45. Pessimism has dropped equally among men and women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-eight percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-eight percent say their own finances are excellent or good; last week it was 59 percent. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, which is unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending June 19, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents June 1-19; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

Click here for PDF version with charts and data table.

Click here for more ABC News polls in our Poll Vault.