Consumer Confidence Stalls

Consumer confidence held essentially flat this week, stalling as gas prices continue to edge higher.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -11 on its scale of +100 to -100, about the same as its -10 last week. Before this pause the index steadily gained from -18 in mid-May to -9 by mid-June. It's now very near its 2005 average, -12, compared with an average of -9 since this weekly survey began in December 1985.

The average price of gasoline jumped 5 cents this week, to $2.22 a gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. That marks the fourth-straight weekly increase after seven weeks of declines.

INDEX -- The ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 38 percent rate the economy and the buying climate positively; more, 57 percent, say their own finances are in good shape. Each is at or very near its average this year and long term.

TREND -- The index peaked this year at -7 on March 6, but fell to its low of the year, -19, on May 1, before picking up again. It reached an all-time high of +38 in January 2000 and a low of -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS -- The ABC/Post CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +27 among higher-income Americans while -55 among those with the lowest incomes, +3 among college graduates while -54 among those who haven't finished high school, -5 among whites but -56 among blacks and -4 among men while -18 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-eight percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-seven percent say their own finances are excellent or good; last week it was 58 percent. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-eight percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 39 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending June 26, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

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