Consumer Confidence Exactly Average

Consumer confidence is exactly average this week, as ratings of the national economy, while still negative, are at a four-month high.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -9 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared with -11 last week. That matches its overall average since this weekly survey began in December 1985, and is just above its average so far this year, -12.

The ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 40 percent say the economy's in good shape, the most since March 6 and up from as low as 33 percent in mid-May to match its overall average.

About as many, 39 percent, call it a good time to buy things, while most, 57 percent, say their own finances are OK. Both also now match their long-term averages.

In a sign of expected continued growth, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter-point last week, noting that, "Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually."

TREND -- At -9, the index is back to where it was at the start of the year, and is much closer to its best so far this year, -7 on March 6, than to its low of the year, -19 on May 1. The index reached an all-time high of +38 in January 2000 and a low of -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS -- Confidence as usual is stronger among better-off groups. It's +22 among higher-income Americans while -52 among those with the lowest incomes, +6 among college graduates while -50 among those who haven't finished high school, -2 among whites but -51 among blacks and -2 among men while -16 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Forty percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 38 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Fifty-seven percent say their own finances are excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 38 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending July 3, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

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