It's A Risk, But Bill Clinton's Visit Could Help Hillary

July 3, 2007 — -- So will campaigning by former President Bill Clinton for his wife in Iowa do her much good?

Yes, but there could be some downsides as well. Her campaign hopes his three-day tour will:

- Boost her positive ratings. She has some of the highest negative ratings of any American politician. For example, according to the Register's Iowa Poll, John Edwards is seen favorably by 79 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, while only 18 percent view him unfavorably. Barack Obama is viewed in a positive light by 74 percent and unfavorably by 22 percent.

By contrast, Clinton is viewed favorably by 66 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent. In a close caucus fight - as this one is shaping up to be - the difference between a 31 percent unfavorable rating and an 18 percent one could be the margin of her loss in the state.

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According to the Washington Post, Clinton's campaign also plans to bombard Iowa Democrats in coming days with a fancy mailing to highlight her biography. Copies weren't immediately provided to The Des Moines Register, but reporter Anne Kornblut of the Post said in her story Monday that "in a series of 12 photos, the mailing lays out her biography, from her days growing up in 'a middle-class family in neighboring Illinois' to 'working her way through law school.' "

- Net her some names. If you presume a turnout of 150,000 Democrats on caucus night, and if you presume they will be split among three or four viable contenders, all you need to win the thing is 50,000 votes spread across the state. For all the unfavorables Clinton has, she can surely find 50,000 people in Iowa who are for her.

But the profile of many Clinton supporters isn't conducive to their caucus attendance. For example, she tends to get good marks from blue-collar women. Yet many of these women have never been to a caucus. That means Clinton's campaign must first find this supporter, then show her how to find her caucus, then get her to show up on a cold January night. (And then not be rolled or intimidated by supporters of other candidates before the public voting takes place.)