EXIT POLLS: Economy Looms Over Obama-McCain Presidential Race
Voters Anxious Over the Economy, Health Care Costs and Iraq War
ANALYSIS By MOLLYANNE BRODIE, SCOTT CLEMENT, PEYTON CRAIGHILL, CLAUDIA DEANE, BRIAN HARTMAN, GARY LANGER, RICH MORIN, PATRICK MOYNIHAN, and ROBERT SHAPIRO
An astonishing number of voters went to the polls anxious -- worried about health care, upset with the current president, opposed to the war in Iraq and deeply concerned that the nation's economy is veering off the rails.
Preliminary exit poll data finds a remarkable 75 percent say the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track. That's up from 46 percent in 2004, 31 percent in 2000 and 43 percent in 1996.
Eighty-five percent of voters said they were worried about direction of the nation's economy, and half of them were very very worried. Why are they worried? Because 81 percent worry the economic crisis is going to harm their family finances. If there's any optimism in these numbers, it's that a lucky few -- 24 percent -- say they're better off than four years ago.
But worries extend beyond the economy. Nearly seven in 10 voters say they're worried about being able to afford health care. Six in 10 disapprove of the war in Iraq. Seven in 10 disapprove of how both President Bush and the Congress are doing their jobs.
That's a strong headwind for John McCain, the flagbearer of the incumbent party. And it's not helped by the 60 percent of voters who say his vice presidential pick, Sarah Palin, is not qualified to be president.
Voters were also more likely to say McCain attacked Barack Obama unfairly -- 65 percent said so, though about half said Obama's hands were dirty on this front as well.
And many voters are expecting to government to dig deeper into their pocketbooks no matter who wines. About half -- 48 percent -- say their taxes will rise under either Obama or McCain. Despite McCain's push on the issue, just 22 percent think only Obama would raise their taxes.
There's a real enthusiasm gap. More than half -- 56 percent --of Obama's supporters are "excited" about the prospect of his becoming president. Among McCain's supporters, just 28 percent are excited.
With that weighing on their minds, about one in 10 voters waited til nearly the last minute -- making their decision in just the last week. The campaigns fought hard to win their votes. A third of all voters say they were contacted by one or both campaigns.
With a black candidate running for the president, turnout of black voters as a percentage of the national vote was at 13 percent, slightly higher than in 2004.
We've also had a chance to review some the exit poll data in the most hard-fought states. Note this is preliminary exit poll data and will be updated throughout the evening. Here's a look at what we're seeing so far. The analyses are organized below by poll close.
- Exit Polls 2008: Results and Breakdown
- Explainer: How Exit Polls Work
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Keep checking back throughout the evening. We'll update each state with a more detailed look at the voters and their motivations of voters in a state after the polls close and more up-to-date exit poll data comes in.
Our list of battleground exit polls to watch is ordered by poll close.
Polls Closing at 7 p.m. ET:
Indiana, Virginia
Polls Closing at 7:30 p.m. ET:
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
Polls Closing at 8 p.m. ET:
Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Polls Closing at 9 p.m. ET:
Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin
Polls Closing at 10 p.m. ET:
Iowa, Nevada
Polls Closing at 7 p.m. ET
| Virginia | ||
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Neither candidate has pulled many punches in this bruising campaign, particularly not in battlegrounds like Virginia.
But more voters said John McCain's attacks seemed more unfair. Almost three quarters of voters, according to preliminary exit poll data, say McCain unfairly attacked Barack Obama while half said Obama unfairly attacked McCain. The campaigns also covered a lot of ground in the Old Dominion. More than half of voters were personally contacted by an Obama campaign worker while a third were contacted by the McCain campaign. A quarter of voters were contacted by both. And in keeping with pre-election polls throughout the country, economic troubles dominated voters' minds as they voted today. In Virginia, six in 10 said the economy was their top voting issue, followed far behind by Iraq and terrorism, the major concern of just one in 10 voters. This election also has proved exciting enough to draw new voters into the process. First time voters made up about a tenth of the electorate. The 'Real' Virginia: The Obama campaign seized on a John McCain operative's dismissal of the area near the nation's capital in the north of the state as somehow removed from "the real Virginia" -- the more conservative areas in other parts of the state. How deeply these divisions play out will be telling. Voter Contact: The campaigns also covered a lot of ground in the Old Dominion. More than half of voters were personally contacted by an Obama campaign worker while a third were contacted by the McCain campaign. A quarter of voters were contacted by both. Economy: And in keeping with pre-election polls throughout the country, economic troubles dominated voters' minds as they voted today. In Virginia, six in 10 said the economy was their top voting issue, followed far behind by Iraq and terrorism, the major concern of just one in 10 voters.
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| Indiana | ||
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In the past a reliably Republican state, pre-election polls this fall showed John McCain in a tough fight here. This is in part the result of a competitive Democratic primary in the state which energized the party.
But Democrats made a real effort in Indiana this year, with four in 10 voters saying they were contacted by Barack Obama's campaign compared with one in five contacted by McCain. Indiana is just one of the hotly contested states in this election that form the industrial backbone of the nation, but it's the first of these rust belt states to finish voting tonight. Nine in ten Hoosiers give the current economy bad ratings, and just as many worry about direction of economy over next year. Economy: Indiana is just one of the hotly contested states in this election that form the industrial backbone of the nation, but it's the first of these rust belt states to finish voting tonight. Nine in ten Hoosiers give the current economy bad ratings, and just as many worry about direction of economy over next year. Working Class White Voters: Nine out of 10 voters have been white in recent elections, and here in the heartland of manufacturing a good number of them are working class, earning less than $50,000 a year. In 2004, working class whites were 36 percent of voters and they favored Bush over Kerry by 16 points -- 58 percent to 42 percent. But will these voters cast their lot with a black candidate? In the Democratic primaries, one in 10 said race was important and 78 percent of them voted against Obama. Conservatives: Voters have been more conservative here than in the rest of the country. In 2004, 42 percent conservative, compared with 34 percent nationally. It will be worth watching whether McCain, who was not exciting this GOP base group before he picked Sarah Palin, will draw his wing men (and women) to the polls. | ||
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