POLL: Confidence Ends 2007 With a Tough 4th Quarter

Jan. 2, 2008 — -- Consumer confidence closes 2007 on a negative note overall, ending the year far lower than the high hopes with which it began.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -20 on its scale of +100 to -100, near its fourth-quarter average, -18. That compares to -12 in the third quarter, -9 in the second and -2 in the first — worsening at each step.

The CCI's path this year, while down overall, has not been a smooth one, with several unusual ups and downs, including an unprecedented 6-point zigzag earlier this month. It ends 2007 just 4 points above its low for the year, continuing a 21-week stretch in negative double digits, last exceeded in 2002-03.

The CCI's gyrations have accompanied a range of economic pressures this year, notably the troubled housing and credit markets, volatile stocks and $3 gasoline.

INDEX – The ABC/Post index is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. This week just 31 percent rate the economy positively, up 4 points from its four-year low last week, but still a steep 9 points below its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985.

Thirty-two percent rate the buying climate positively, the same as last week; that's 2 points from its 2007 low a month ago and 6 points below its long-term average. Ratings of personal finances, typically the best of the three components, remain steady, matching their long-term average.

TREND – Across the year as a whole the CCI averaged -11, slipping under its 2006 average (-10) at the last minute, and 2 points below its long-term average. It had been running above that average as recently as mid-October; the poor fourth quarter took care of that.

This year has been unusually volatile in terms of weekly change, with the largest- and second-largest one-week drops, and two of the second-biggest one-week gains, in the index's 22-year history.

The CCI is far below its record high, +38 in January 2000, but also much better than its record low, -50 in February 1992.