Hurricane Gustav's blown through, but the Republican National Convention still faces a more long-running storm: Consumer confidence, in the tank all year, is its lowest since the GOP lost the White House in 1992.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -47 on its scale of +100 to -100, off the -50 floor but still a dismal reading. Its record low in 22 years of weekly polls was -51 in late May; compare these to its long-term average, -10.
The challenge is how the Republicans respond. George W. Bush this weekend suggested the economy's improving, citing GDP growth. But GDP was up in 1992, only then -- as now -- in a way that wasn't much felt on Main Street. Financial concerns clearly are still stressing consumers (the Commerce Department Friday reported the biggest drop in personal incomes in nearly three years) and the economy remains the top election issue.
In an ABC News/Washington Post poll last week, John McCain trailed Barack Obama in trust to handle the economy by 11 points, 50-39 percent. That's some of the ground McCain may hope to make up in St. Paul this week.
INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. Fewer than half have rated their personal finances positively for six weeks straight; this week's 45 percent ties the 2008 low set May 25, and it's only 3 points better than the record low in March 1993.
Far fewer, 21 percent, say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, fewer than 25 percent for a record 21st straight week, down 10 points on the year and 17 points off the long-term average.
Fewer still, 13 percent, say the national economy's in good shape, at or below 15 percent also for the 21st straight week. These are down 18 points this year and 26 points off the long-term average.
TREND -- The index spiraled down from -20 at the start of the year to -51 in May, recovered somewhat to -41 in July, then fell back to -50 three weeks ago and again last week. Today's -47 is its best since the end of July, if very far from good.
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