POLL: Confidence Spikes after Three-Month Slump

July 24, 2007 — -- Consumer Confidence rebounded sharply this week, again rallying out of a slump that started last spring.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index jumped to -5 on its scale of +100 to -100, up six points from last week -- the seventh time in the index's 21-year history that it's risen by six or more points in a single week.

Of the index's three components, increasingly healthy ratings of the buying climate and a turnaround in views of personal finances fueled its jump. Ratings of the national economy held about steady.

The advance coincides with a 9-cent decrease in the price of gas in this week's U.S. Department of Energy survey. Gas dropped to $2.96, 1.5 percent below where it was a year ago. Gas hasn't been below its year-ago level since the index began its dry spell three months ago.

INDEX – Consumers may at last have hit their summer stride: Positive ratings of the buying climate have climbed steadily, from 33 percent on June 3 to 39 percent now. Fifty-nine percent now rate their personal finances positively; last week's 55 percent was a 2007 low.

At 44 percent positive, ratings of the national economy are essentially unchanged from last week. But the measure has increased by seven points since June and is inching toward its 2007 high of 48 percent on February 19.

TREND – The CCI is situated comfortably between its 2007 high and low, only seven points from its high of +2 on March 11 and 10 points from its low of -15 on June 3. It's essentially the same as its 2007 average of -6, but it's four points above its lifelong average of -9.

The CCI saw a similar spike three weeks ago when it increased by five points on July 1. Altogether, the index has increased by 10 points since it hit its 2007 low seven weeks ago.

GROUPS – As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +46 among higher-income people while -41 among those with the lowest incomes, +10 among those who've been to college while -34 among high school dropouts and -3 among whites but -29 among blacks. It's -4 among men compared with -6 among women, an unusually narrow gap for the third week in a row.