POLL: Surge in Confidence Abates, But its Overall Trend is Up

Last week's surge in consumer confidence abated this week, but its gradual advance from an early June low remains on course. Zagging where it last zigged, the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index now stands at -8 on its scale of +100 to -100 this week, after an unusual six-point gain to -5 last week. July was bouncy for the CCI, -5 to -11, but better than its -15 June 3.

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The index has averaged -6 for the year, enough, if it holds through December, to be its best year since 2001, when it averaged +4. That was down from +29 in the go-go year 2000.

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INDEX -- The ABC/Post index is based on views of the buying climate, now rated positively by 38 percent of Americans; the national economy, 42 percent; and personal finances, higher than usual at 58 percent positive.

The CCI's improvement since June has been in positive ratings of the buying climate and the economy overall, each up five points from June 3. Personal finance ratings, while higher overall, have remained flat in the last two months.

TREND -- The CCI about matches its 2007 average, -6, but is 10 points below its high for the year, +2 March 11. It's averaged -9 in weekly polls since December 1985, ranging from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February 1992

GROUPS -- As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +49 among higher-income people while -53 among those with the lowest incomes, +4 among those who've been to college while -32 among high school dropouts and -5 among whites but -37 among blacks. Unusually, the index is essentially the same among men and women, -8 and -9 respectively; and is customarily lower among women.