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     September 30, 2004
 
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  Page 3 of 4

  Debate Effects
  As Bush and Kerry Prepare for Their First Match-Up, What’s at Stake?  Continued  

This is a different kind of animal. Debate-reaction polls do not measure the race overall, among all registered or likely voters. They're done only among registered voters who watched the debate. This group does not necessarily look like the broader voting public; in 2000, for instance, Republicans tuned in disproportionately.

If the horse race among debate watchers does not look like recent likely voter horse races, do not be surprised.

Debate-watcher polls are "panel" surveys. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll we reported Monday, we asked people if they'd be watching the debate, and if yes, whether we could call back after and ask what they thought. That is what we'll be doing tonight: Around 125 interviewers jumping on the phones, calling back debate watchers from our random national sample, and asking three questions: Did you watch, who won, whom do you support? In 20 or 25 minutes, we should have the results.

One caution: Different debate-reaction polls can get different answers, because they ask different questions. Our ABC News poll asks: "Who, in your opinion, won the debate?" The answer can be Kerry, Bush, or "tie."

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