The risk to retailers is that fewer Americans are in a buying mood. Forty-seven percent say it is a good time to shop, down seven points since early September and 10 points below the record high in the 15-year-old ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll. The record was established in January.
     Ratings of the buying climate are seven points lower than at this point in 1999 and five points below their level in early December 1998, two strong retail seasons.
     But this year is not a guaranteed bust for retailers. The buying mood is still better than it was at this point in any year from 1985 to 1997. And, as reported last week, Americans expected to spend an average of $798 on holiday gifts this year — down from the record-high $869 reported last year but higher than in any other year since 1989.
     Other ratings, moreover, are strong: Seventy-six percent rate the national economy positively, four points from the high set in January, and 65 percent say their own finances are in good shape, five points from the peak.
    
    

Ratings of the Economy
	Today	Highest	Lowest	Average
National Economy	76%	80%	7%	41%
Personal Finances	65%	70%	42%	57%
Buying Climate	47%	57%	20%	38%

     INDEX — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these ratings, stands at +25 on its scale of +100 to -100. That’s down four points from last week to its lowest since July 2.
     The index peaked at +38 in January. It has averaged +29 this year, a point above its record 1999 average. Its lifetime average, depressed by recession in the early 1990s, is -9.
    

ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today	+25
Jan. 16, 2000	+38  Record high
2000 average	+29
1999 average	+28  Best full year
1992 average	- 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992	- 50  Record low
Average since 12/85	-9

A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans: The index is +60 in higher-income households compared to -15 in the lowest; +38 among college graduates but -15 among high-school dropouts; +29 among whites but +10 among blacks; and +28 among men and +22 among women.
     Here’s a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:
     NATIONAL ECONOMY — The poll asks: Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? Seventy-six percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good, down a point from last week. The best was 80 percent on Jan. 16. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
     PERSONAL FINANCES — The poll asks: Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? Sixty-five percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down three points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
     BUYING CLIMATE — The poll asks: Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say now is an excellent time, a good time, a not-so-good time or a poor time to buy the things you want and need? Forty-seven percent say it is an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down two points from last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16. The worst was 20 percent in 1990.

Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,026 interviews in the week ending Dec.10 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
     The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by 3. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.