June 7, 2001
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HOMEPAGE MONEYSCOPE FEATURE
confidence
The Consumer Comfort Index stands at +3 on its scale of -100 to +100. Last week it was at +1, unchanged from the previous week. (ABCNEWS.com)
Confidence Nearly Flat
Passage of Tax Cut Fails to Buoy Sentiment

 
ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, June 7 — The prospect of a tax rebate and a rate cut hasn't had an immediate impact on consumer confidence: Sentiment remained essentially flat this week, near its four-year low.


Fifty-one percent of Americans view the economy positively, 61 percent say their finances are sound and 42 percent say it's a good time to buy things — all well above their levels at the start of the last recession in 1990 but down from their highs.


Ratings of the Economy:
  6/3/01 1/7/01 Highest Average
National Economy 51% 71% 80% 41%
Buying Climate 42% 47% 57% 38%
Personal Finances 61% 66% 70% 57%
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these views, stands at +3 on its scale of +100 to -100, up two points from last week. It was +23 at the start of the year, +38 in January 2000 but -25 in July 1990, at the start of the last recession.

The index fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. Nonetheless, all three gauges remain above their 15-year averages.

 Interactive Look at Confidence Data


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today + 3
Last week + 1
Three months ago +12
Jan. 7, 2001 +23
Jan 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 9
President Bush is to sign tax-cut legislation today that provides rebates of $300 to $600 intended to provide a quick boost to the moribund economy. However, an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll this week found that just about one-quarter of Americans say that they'll spend the rebate, which raises the question of just how much economic stimulus it will provide.

 Get the Numbers on Rebate Poll

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +31 in higher-income households compared to -40 in the lowest, +20 among college graduates while -42 among high-school dropouts, +7 among whites but -21 among blacks and +8 among men but -3 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Fifty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-one percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up one point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,032 interviews in the month ending June 3 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.


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 RELATED STORIES

Poll: Majority Won't Spend Tax Rebates

Poll: Consumer Confidence Steady


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