June 14, 2001
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The Consumer Comfort Index stands at +3 on its scale of -100 to +100, unchanged from last week. Two weeks ago it was at +1. (ABCNEWS.com)
Confidence Languishes
Sentiment Hovers Near 4-Year Low

 By Kate Miltner
ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, June 14 — Consumer confidence is languishing in a trough, with sentiment flat for the last seven weeks, hovering at or near its four-year low.


Consumer confidence plunged from January through March, leveled in April and then dipped to an even lower plane. The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index has ranged between +3 to +1 since late Apri, down from +23 at the start of the year and well off a peak of +38 in January 2000.

This lackluster confidence corresponds with Wednesday's data from the Commerce Department showing that consumer spending grew a scant 0.1 percent in May. Spending by consumers represents two-thirds of the country's economic activity.


Ratings of the Economy
  6/10/01 1/7/01 Record high 15-year average
National Economy 51% 71% 80% 41%
Buying Climate 41% 47% 57% 38%
Personal Finances 62% 66% 70% 57%
The index is based on ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate. Fifty-one percent now say the economy is good, down from 71 percent in January. Forty-one percent say it's a good time to buy, down six points since the start of the year. And 62 percent rate their personal finances positively, down four points in the period.

While down from their highs, these views are still well above their levels at the start of the last recession, in July 1990, when the index stood at -25.

Today, the index is at +3, the same as last week.

The index fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. Nonetheless, all three gauges are still above their 15-year averages.

 Interactive Look at Confidence Data


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today + 3
Last week + 3
Three months ago +10
Jan. 7, 2001 +23
Jan 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 9

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +32 in higher-income households compared to -46 in the lowest, +23 among college graduates while -44 among high-school dropouts, +7 among whites but -20 among blacks and +9 among men but -3 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Fifty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down one point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,041 interviews in the month ending June 10 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.


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