June 20, 2001
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Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Comfort Index stands at +4 on its scale of -100 to +100, up from +3 for each of the past two weeks. (ABCNEWS.com)
Rays of Hope
More See Economic Improvement
Than at Any Time This Year

 By Kate Miltner
ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, June 21 — One in six Americans says the economy is improving — not many, but the most this year.


According to the latest ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll, nearly 17 percent think the economy is getting better. That's up from 12 percent or 13 percent ratings in each the last five months and eight points better than it was in July 1990, at the start of the last recession.

Still, a plurality, 45 percent, says the economy is getting worse, comparable to readings over the past few months. And 38 percent think the economy is treading water.

Despite this very slight uptick in expectations, evaluations of current economic conditions remain in a slump. Forty-three percent say it's a good time to buy things they want or need, the most since March but down five points from February.

Fifty-one percent say the national economy is in good shape, unchanged during the last month. And 62 percent rate their personal finances positively, the same as last week.

The Consumer Confidence Index, made up of these three gauges, stands this week at +4 on a scale of -100 to +100, up one point from a week ago.


Ratings of the Economy
  6/17/01 1/7/01 Record high 15-year average
National Economy 51% 71% 80% 41%
Buying Climate 43% 47% 57% 38%
Personal Finances 62% 66% 70% 57%

The index fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March, and another five points in one week in April. Nonetheless, all three gauges are still above their averages in the 15-year history of ABCNEWS/Money magazine polls.

 Interactive Look at Confidence Data


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today + 4
Last week + 3
Four months ago +19
Jan. 7, 2001 +23
Jan 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 9

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +37 in higher-income households compared to -51 in the lowest, +26 among college graduates but -38 among high-school dropouts, +10 among whites but -26 among blacks, and +13 among men and -4 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Fifty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, also unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up two points from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,030 interviews in the month ending June 17 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.


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