July 27, 2001
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Money Poll
The Consumer Comfort Index stands at +6 on its scale of -100 to +100. It was at +4 for the preceding two weeks. (ABCNEWS.com)
Beginning to Feel Better
Consumer Confidence at Three-Month High

 By Kate Miltner
ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, July 26 — Consumer confidence edged up this week to its highest level in three months, breaking out of the narrow band it's occupied since April. But it's still down sharply since the start of the year.



The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort Index, measured on a scale of +100 to -100, crept up to +6 this week, breaking out of the rut it has occupied since the end of April. The index dropped from +23 at the beginning of the year, and then leveled near its four-year low.

The index is based on views of personal finances, the buying climate and the economy. Sixty-five percent say their personal finances are in good shape, the most since April and close to where it was in January. And 43 percent say it's a good time to buy things, down four points since January.

Confidence has been hit the hardest this year by steeply declining ratings of the economy. This week, 51 percent of Americans rate the economy positively, down 20 points since January.


Ratings of the Economy
  7/22/01 1/7/01 Record high 15-year average
National Economy 51% 71% 80% 41%
Buying Climate 43% 47% 57% 38%
Personal Finances 65% 66% 70% 57%

The index fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March, and another five points in one week in April. Nonetheless, all three gauges are still above their 15-year averages.

 Interactive Look at Confidence Data


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today + 6
Last week + 4
Five months ago +13
Jan. 7, 2001 +23
Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 9

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +34 in higher-income households but -29 in the lowest. It's +21 among college graduates but -28 among high-school dropouts. It's +11 among whites and -24 among blacks. For men, it's +9, while it's +3 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Fifty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down one point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-five percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up two points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up two points from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,032 interviews in the month ending July 22 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.


Consumer Confidence

 


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