October 2, 2001
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consumer confidence
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort Index stands at +1 on its scale of -100 to +100. Last week it was at -1, unchanged from the preceding week. (ABCNEWS.com)
Confidence Stands Firm
Consumer Sentiment Improves a Bit

 By Gary Langer
ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, Oct. 3 — Consumer confidence continues to hold steady, showing no deterioration — and perhaps a slight gain — since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, according to the latest ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll.


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The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index advanced two points this week to +1 on its scale of +100 to -100, its best since Aug. 26. It was -4, its lowest since March 1997, on Sept. 9, two days before the terrorists struck targets in New York and Washington.

The index is based on ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate. Today, 46 percent of Americans rate the economy positively (it was 43 percent before the attacks), 43 percent rate the buying climate positively (up from 40 percent before the terrorist attacks) and 62 percent rate their own finances positively (a slight gain since Sept. 11).

Those changes are slight, but it's significant that consumer confidence is hanging tough. Indeed, it has not lost ground since Sept. 11 and has even halted a pre-attack slide — the index had fallen by 11 points from Aug. 12 until Sept. 9. Since then it's gained five points.

The ABC/Money poll is based on a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, with 250 new interviews added each week. This week's results include 750 interviews in the three weeks since the attacks, plus 250 interviews from the preceding week. Many other post-attack polls also show public ratings of the economy steady or slightly improved from their pre-Sept. 11 levels.


Positive Ratings of …
  9/30/01 9/23/01 9/16/01 9/9/01
National Economy 46% 44% 46% 43%
Buying Climate 43% 42% 40% 40%
Personal Finances 62% 62% 62% 61%

Confidence was having a tough year before the attacks, with the ABC/Money index falling sharply from +23 on Jan. 7. But it's still well above the levels associated with the last recession, in 1990-91, and its aftermath. It bottomed out at -50 in February 1992.

Part of the post-attack result could reflect an "optimism rally" within the public's broader closing of the ranks. But other elements of positive confidence — low inflation and interest rates and improved personal finances — also remain in place. The Fed's latest action couldn't hurt: It cut interest rates by another half-point on Tuesday.


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today  + 1
Last week   - 1
Sept. 9   - 4
Jan. 7, 2001  + 23
2001 Average  + 7
Jan. 16, 2000 + 38 Record high
2000 average + 29  Best full year
1992 average  - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85  - 8

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +18 in higher-income households compared to -28 in the lowest, +13 among college graduates while -29 among high-school dropouts, +6 among whites but -28 among blacks and +5 among men while -3 among women..

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Forty-six percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up two points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up one point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,013 interviews in the month ending Sept. 30 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Fieldwork was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

 

 
 
 
 
 















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