The decline in confidence has been held in check, however, by relatively positive assessments of personal finances.
Just 37 percent of Americans now say the national economy's in good shape, down nine points in October and 34 points since the start of the year. Only 44 percent say it's a good time to buy things, unchanged over the past three weeks. But a steady 62 percent say their own finances are good, within eight points of this indicator's all-time high in nearly 16 years of polling.
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on all three gauges, rallied in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorism attacks before resuming a decline that began in August. Confidence this week slipped below its pre-Sept. 11 level.
The ABCNEWS/Money index inched down to -5 this week, its lowest since March 16, 1997. While sharply lower this year, the index indicates more confidence than there was at the start of the last recession. The index was at -25 in July 1990. Consumer sentiment was the single best predictor of that recession.
The ABCNEWS/Money index started the year at +23. The gauge fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. The index reversed another slide to gain ground following the Sept. 11 attacks, before losing another five points last week.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
- 5 |
| Last week |
- 3 |
| Sept. 9 |
- 4 |
| Jan.
7, 2001 |
+ 23 |
| 2001 Average |
+ 6 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+ 38
Record high |
| 2000
average |
+ 29
Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +21 in higher-income households compared to -30 in the lowest, +6 among college graduates while -34 among high-school dropouts, +1 among whites but -33 among blacks and -2 among men while -7 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down two points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-four percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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