But Americans give better ratings to economic forces they experience more personally — their incomes and the buying climate — and that's keeping confidence well above its level in the dark days of the early 1990s.
Only 37 percent of adults say the economy is in good shape, 15 points below the average this year. But 61 percent still say their own finances are OK, just two points below the year's average. And 45 percent rate the buying climate positively — two points above the '01 average.
While a 37-percent positive rating for the economy isn't pretty — down from 71 percent last January — it isn't dismal, either. Back in early 1992 just 7 percent rated the economy positively, the worst ever in this nearly 16-year-old weekly poll.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again today, by a half point, in a further attempt to stimulate the economy. Low interest rates — as well as low inflation — have leavened the otherwise bleak economic news all year.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort index, based on these gauges, stands at -5 on its scale of +100 to -100, the same as last week and its lowest since March 1997. It was -25 in July 1990, at the start of the last recession; and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992.
The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 didn't push confidence into its recent decline, it had been falling all year, including a steep drop that began in mid-August. A post-Sept. 11 rally briefly halted that decline, but it subsequently resumed.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
- 5 |
| Last week |
- 5 |
| Oct. 7 |
+2 |
| Sept. 9 |
-4 |
| Jan. 7 |
+23 |
| 2001 Average |
+ 6 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+ 38
Record high |
| 2000
average |
+ 29
Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
The ABCNEWS/Money index started 2001 at +23, fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. The index reversed another slide to gain ground following the Sept. 11 attacks, before losing another five points three weeks ago.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +19 in higher-income households compared to -23 in the lowest, +5 among college graduates while -33 among high-school dropouts, and 0 among whites but -22 among blacks. It's about the same this week among men and women; usually the index is lower among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-one percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down one point. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up one point. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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