Forty-eight percent in the latest ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll say the nation's economy is deteriorating, while 16 percent say it's improving. While hardly inspiring, it's been far worse: In October 1990, as the last recession gathered steam, 77 percent said the economy was worsening.
Views of current economic conditions were stable this week, with 62 percent of Americans saying their own finances are in good shape, but just 37 percent saying the same of the national economy. Ratings of the buying climate were 45 percent positive.
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort index, based on these gauges, stands at -4 on its scale of +100 to -100; it was -5 last week, its lowest since March 1997. The index fell to -25 in July 1990, at the start of the last recession, and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992. It soared with the economic recovery in the second half of the 1990s, peaking at +38 in January 2000.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-4 |
| Last week |
- 5 |
| Oct. 14 |
-3 |
| Oct. 7 |
+2 |
| Sept.
9 |
-4
|
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 5 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 didn't push confidence into its recent decline — it had been falling all year, from a high of +23 last Jan. 7.
The index fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost another five points the week of Oct. 14.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +20 in higher-income households compared to -27 in the lowest, +9 among college graduates while -33 among high-school dropouts, and -1 among whites but -12 among blacks. It's about the same this week among men and women; usually the index is lower among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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