That could reflect positive consumer reaction to holiday sales.
Forty-eight percent say it's a good time to buy things, up eight points this fall to its highest level since Feb. 18. It's an important measure because of the crucial role of consumer spending in the economy, especially in the holiday shopping season.
The number of people who rate their own finances positively also is holding tough, 63 percent this week. But views of the national economy — the gauge that's dragged confidence down all year — remain much weaker, just 36 percent positive.
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort index, based on these gauges, stands at -2 on its scale of +100 to -100. It's fallen sharply this year, including a steep decline late last winter, when the current recession now officially began.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (or NBER), declared Monday that the economy fell into recession last March after a decade of growth. The ABCNEWS/Money Index plummeted just at that time, from +20 on Feb. 11 to +4 on March 25, a 16-point drop. The index recorded a similar drop at the start of the last recession in July 1990, when it fell by 13 points.
But confidence is much higher than it was in 1990, which holds out at least the chance that this recession could be a mild one.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-2 |
| Last week |
-5 |
| Oct. 14 |
-3 |
| Oct. 7 |
+2 |
| Sept.
9 |
-4
|
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 5 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
One difference is the performance of real income, which, as the NBER noted, has held up this year despite the broader downturn. So have other factors that affect consumers directly, including interest rates; inflation in general and gasoline prices in particular; and even unemployment, which is its highest in five years but still better than it was the 1980s and early 1990s.
The nearly 16-year-old ABCNEWS/Money index bottomed out at -50 in early 1992 as consumers still labored in the aftermath of the last recession. It soared starting in the mid-90s, peaking at +38 on Jan. 16, 2000. But confidence flattened, and then tumbled in 2001.
Starting at a year's high of +23 last Jan. 7, the index lost seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in a week in February, five points in a week in March and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost another five points the week of Oct. 14.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +18 in higher-income households compared to -36 in the lowest, +7 among college graduates while -18 among high-school dropouts, and +4 among men but -7 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-six percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good; it was 35 percent last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-three percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 62 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-eight percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up three points this week and up eight points since Sept. 16. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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