Thirty-seven percent in the latest ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll say the economy is getting worse, down 11 points in just the last month. Meanwhile, 24 percent say the economy is getting better — the most of the year, and up eight points from a month ago.
While expectations for the future look somewhat brighter, ratings of current economic conditions remain flat. Worst are ratings of the national economy, at just 37 percent positive. More, 47 percent, call it a good time to buy things, and more still, 62 percent, say their own finances are in good shape.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these views, stands at -3 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged from last week. The index has hovered at -2 to -5 since mid-October. (The index is updated weekly; the first release each month reflects the previous full month's results.)
The number of Americans saying the economy's getting better has been as low as 9 percent this year (in September), making today's 24 percent almost cheery by contrast. And while 37 percent say it's getting worse, that compares to a whopping 77 percent in October and November 1990, during the last recession.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-3 |
| Last week |
-3 |
| Oct. 14 |
-3 |
| Oct. 7 |
+2 |
| Sept.
9 |
-4
|
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 5 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
For its part, the index of current sentiment started this year at +23, but went on to lose seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in a week in February, five points in a week in March and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost another five points the week of Oct. 14.
But confidence is still holding much stronger than it was at the start of the last recession, -25 in July 1990. One reason is that factors that directly affect consumers, such as personal income, interest rates and inflation, have all stayed in good shape. The Fed cut interest rates Tuesday for the 11th time since January.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +16 in higher-income households compared to -45 in the lowest, +5 among college graduates while -16 among high-school dropouts, 0 among whites but -29 among blacks and +6 among men while -11 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up a point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-seven percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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