It's the first time in nine years, moreover, that confidence across the year was lower on average than the year before.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index has finished 2001 at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100, down steeply from +23 last January. Confidence has had an unusually rocky holiday season, with the index down 10 points in just the last month.
The index averaged +4 in 2001, compared to +29 in 2000, its best year on record - the largest year-to-year drop in this poll's 16-year history. It has been much worse, though, averaging a dismal -44 in 1992. That suggests this recession may be milder than the last.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is based on views of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate. Ratings of the economy have suffered most, diving from 71 percent positive last January to 31 percent today. Positive ratings of personal finances lost 10 points; the buying climate, just three.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-13 |
| Last week |
-11 |
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 4 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
The index fell seven points in one week last January (tying the one-week record), six points in a week in February, five points in a week in March (when the recession now officially began) and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost five points in mid-October and another five points last week.
The ABCNEWS/Money index gauges Americans' views of current economic conditions; expectations for the future, measured separately each month, have been looking brighter. (On Dec. 9 expectations were their least negative of the year.) Some consumer polls combine measures of current sentiment and expectations alike; some also are less timely than this survey, which is comprised of 1,000 interviews over the last month, including 250 in the last week.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +3 in higher-income households compared to -44 in the lowest, -1 among college graduates while -41 among high-school dropouts, -8 among whites but -45 among blacks and -6 among men while -19 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down two points from last week and the fewest since Jan. 21, 1996. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, unchanged from last week and the fewest since March 16, 1997. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-four percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down one point from last week but better than it was last spring and late summer. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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