Twenty-five percent say the economy's getting better, about where it was last month, but up nine points since November, and nearly double what it was at the start of the recession last March.
Still, pessimism lingers: Thirty-six percent think the economy is getting worse. Another 39 percent say it's staying the same.
Recent polls that ask about expectations in a different way have gotten different results. While 25 percent in this poll say the economy "is getting better," 53 percent in a recent Bloomberg poll said they expect it "to get better over the next 12 months." That suggests that many more people expect improvement than have yet seen it.
Sentiment of current economic conditions, meanwhile, continues to languish in a trough, unchanged over the last four weeks at its 5 1/2 year low.
Ratings of the national economy stand at a meager 33 percent positive, while just 40 percent rate the buying climate positively, the fewest since mid-September. Best are ratings of personal finances, now at 58 percent positive.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these three gauges, stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100 for the fourth consecutive week. It last saw this level in August 1996.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-13 |
| Last week |
-13 |
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 4 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
It was a grim year for consumer confidence in 2001. The index started the year at +23, and finished it at -13. Overall, it averaged +4 in 2001, down from a record setting +29 in 2000 - the largest year-to-year drop since this weekly poll began in late 1985. But it's been far worse, averaging just -44 in 1992.
The index fell seven points in one week last January (tying the one-week record), six points in a week in February, five points in a week in March (when the recession officially began) and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost five points in mid-October and another five points in a week in December.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +16 in higher-income households compared to -47 in the lowest, +2 among college graduates while -48 among high-school dropouts, -7 among whites but -36 among blacks and -6 among men while -17 among women.
Expectations show similar differences. Men are 12 points more apt than women to say the economy's getting better; optimism also peaks among higher-income and better educated people. Optimism is highest, by a considerable margin, among Republicans, and lowest in the South.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-three percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-eight percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up a point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down a point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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