March 21, 2002
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Confidence Steady
Poll Finds Consumer Confidence Holding at Year’s High


ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, March 6 — Consumer confidence held steady in the latest ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll, matching its best level in 2 ½ months.



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Poll Vault: ABCNEWS 2001 Poll Archives
IN DETAIL
Consumer Comfort Index - March 21
 
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort Index had gained six points in two weeks, reaching -7 on a scale of +100 to -100. The index measures views of current economic conditions. Expectations for the future, measured separately, have been improving since last fall.

In the index, 60 percent of Americans this week call their own finances excellent or good, and 42 percent call it a good time to buy things. While just 37 percent say the economy's in good shape, that looks to be slowly improving, up six points since the start of the year.

Some other economic news has been encouraging. Last week, the Commerce Department reported a rise in Americans' incomes and spending in January, and said the economy grew by 1.4 percent in the last quarter of 2001.

 TREND — The weekly index has averaged -11 since the start of the year, slightly below its 16-year average of -8 but still much higher than its worst year, 1992, when it averaged -44. The index averaged +4 in 2001, down from a record +29 in 2000 - the largest year-to-year drop in this poll's history.

 GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +14 in higher-income households compared to -51 in the lowest, 0 among college graduates while -36 among high-school dropouts, -2 among whites but -47 among blacks and +3 among men while -17 among women.


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today -7
Last week -7
Three weeks ago -13
2002 Average - 11
2001 Average + 4
Jan. 16, 2000 + 38 Record high
2000 average + 29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 8

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up two points from last week. The best was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down two points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,020 interviews in the month ending March 3 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

 

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