Lagging Economy, Impending War Shake Public Confidence
Analysis By Gary Langer
Jan. 21
— President Bush faces a two-front war in public opinion, confronted with increasingly striking divisions on how to deal with Iraq, and a sharp jump in economic discontent at home — including first-time majority disapproval for his economic stewardship.
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Support for attacking Iraq has slipped under 60 percent, its lowest since summer. And in counterpoint to the U.S. military buildup, Americans divide evenly on whether the United States should be working more on diplomacy, or on military confrontation, with Baghdad.
Compunctions about how to proceed with Iraq are matched by deepening economic discontent at home. Consumer confidence this week took one of its steepest falls in the 17-year history of the weekly ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll, landing at its worst level since December 1993.
And for the first time in his presidency, most Americans, 53 percent, now disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy.
Bush's tax-cut solution hasn't helped, with six in 10 in this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll saying it favors the rich. And his overall job approval rating is down seven points in the last month to 59 percent, almost back to its level just before Sept. 11, 2001.
On Iraq, 57 percent support U.S. military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power; it was 62 percent in mid-December and as high as 78 percent a few months after the 9/11 attacks. While still a majority, support today is a far cry from the near-unanimity that accompanied the start of the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan just over a year ago.
The intensity of opinion still tilts toward action: Those who "strongly" support attacking Iraq, at 40 percent, outnumber those who strongly oppose it, 25 percent. Yet most also urge caution: Fifty-five percent say their greater concern is that the Bush administration will move too quickly, rather than not quickly enough, in taking military action.
Other results underscore the conflicted nature of public opinion on Iraq, and some indicate greater ambivalence about Bush's approach. His approval rating for handling the situation is down eight points in the last month to nearly an even split — 50 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove. It was 58 percent to 37 percent in mid-December.
An Even Split on Diplomatic Action
In a further division on this issue, the public also splits about evenly on whether the United States should work more on trying diplomacy and negotiation with Iraq (50 percent), or preparing for a military confrontation (47 percent). That's even though most, 61 percent, give diplomacy little or no chance of success.
One significant factor is Bush's broader popularity: It corresponds closely with views on Iraq, and at 59 percent it's his lowest in ABC/Post polls since 9/11. As usual when presidential approval suffers, the economy's the chief culprit: Three-quarters say it's in bad shape.
Another factor in views of Iraq is a desire for evidence. Seventy-one percent of Americans say that if U.N. inspectors can't find hard evidence of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, the United States should have to present its own evidence before attacking.
But these views are also equivocal. Fewer — 47 percent — say the United States should have to present evidence if doing so would expose sensitive intelligence sources.
Nor do most favor an open-ended inspection schedule. Fifty-four percent say the United States should set a deadline on the U.N. inspections, while 43 percent say it should give the inspectors as much time as they want. Among those who favor a time limit, eight in 10 say it should be a few months or less, as opposed to several months or more.
The public divides evenly, 48 percent to 47 percent, on whether as of now the administration has presented enough evidence showing why an attack is justified. In another formulation, though, more, 58 percent, say they "would like" more evidence.
Polling over the last several months has shown that support for attacking Iraq depends on the circumstances posited. In some (lack of allied support, lack of evidence, high-casualty ground war) support falls sharply. In others (presence of evidence, or to destroy a nuclear weapons-making capability) support rises.
In sum these data show the unsettled nature of views on the level of threat Iraq poses — a central component of support for war. Most see Iraq as a threat, but there's less consensus on the size and immediacy of that threat. That fuels a desire for evidence before action.
Views on North Korea are considerably less conflicted. Eighty percent say the United States should focus more on diplomacy and negotiation with Pyongyang than on a military buildup. And in stark contrast to views on Iraq, eight in 10 think diplomacy with North Korea has a decent chance of success.
Economy Determines Popularity
Absent war, it's domestic concerns, chiefly the economy, that drive a president's popularity. And after riding a long wave of support for his still-popular response to terrorism, Bush's popularity today clearly is showing the effects of economic concerns.
Only 25 percent of Americans in this poll say the economy's in good shape, down 10 points from a month ago; 74 percent say it's hurting. And, perhaps worse for Bush, just 18 percent say economic conditions are getting better.
Fifty-three percent now disapprove of Bush's work on the economy, up 10 points in the last two weeks — meaning, since the announcement of his recovery plan — and a majority for the first time since he took office. Forty-three percent approve.
Response to Bush's recovery plan is negative. Sixty-one percent believe his proposals on cutting taxes favor the wealthy.
Sixty-seven percent say they'd rather see the government spend more on domestic programs than to have the tax cut Bush has proposed; 56 percent also say they'd prefer deficit-reduction to Bush's tax-cutting plans.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone January 16-20, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an oversample of 211 blacks.
The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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