That’s no surprise: Caught in its quadrennial interregnum between primaries and conventions, the contest today lacks the drama of the early primaries. Views of the candidates seem locked in a holding pattern, as do vote preferences themselves.
    The contest remains close — a four-point lead for George W. Bush over Al Gore among registered voters in this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, 49 to 45 percent. It’s similar among likely voters, and adding Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader to the mix makes no real difference.
     Polls don’t foretell the future; the numbers well may move as attention rises. All the same, preferences today, with 49 percent of Americans following the race closely, are almost identical to their level in February, when seven in 10 were watching closely.
    

Following the Race Closely
June 11	49%
Feb. 27	70%

Presidential Preference Among Registered Voters
Bush	Gore
49%	45%
50%	45%

Leadership
Gore moved up in the winter and early spring, but since has lost some momentum. His personal favorability rating has slipped to 45 percent, its lowest since 1997. (Bush’s is 50 percent.) And as Gore strikes out this week to claim Bill Clinton’s mantle of economic stewardship, he lags on that subject — an effect of the perceived leadership deficit that’s dogged his candidacy.
     Americans by a five-point margin pick Bush over Gore as the candidate they better trust to handle the nation’s economy. That deprives Gore of assistance from an issue that arguably he should own, given the economic boom of the last several years.
     This shortfall plus a very close contest in trust to handle Social Security, traditionally a Democratic issue, underscore Gore’s leadership problem: Just 48 percent of Americans call him a strong leader, compared to 65 percent for Bush.
     “Weak leader” may be the customary springtime assessment of a sitting vice president; Gore supporters point to Bush’s father, who trailed Michael Dukakis in spring 1988 but went on to win in November. The two previous sitting vice presidents to run for the top office, however, both lost — Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Richard Nixon in 1960.
     Gores’ leadership rating does have potential for improvement; it rose by 14 points as he whupped Bill Bradley this winter, before dropping back in this poll. Moreover, it was Clinton who suffered from weak leadership ratings in early June 1992; he overcame them to win the presidency.
     At least for the moment, Gore’s credentials as an experienced hand on the federal tiller don’t seem an effective counterpoint to his leadership shortfall. Fifty-eight percent of Americans think Gore “can get things done.” But 66 percent think that’s true of Bush.
     Bush’s somewhat weaker point is in understanding the problems of average Americans; 48 percent think he does, compared to 53 percent for Gore. That compares to 59 percent for Clinton — and just 38 percent for then-President Bush — in June 1992. President Bush’s broadly perceived lack of empathy was a chief weakness that Clinton exploited.

Is There a Difference?
Whatever their current preferences, most Americans do see a substantive choice in a Bush-Gore election. Sixty-eight percent think there’s “a real difference” between these two candidates on the issues; and about as many, 66 percent, see “a real difference” in terms of Bush and Gore’s personal qualities. Differences on the issues are especially apparent to people who are following the race closely.
     Vote preferences among men have been very stable this spring, and remain so; in this poll they support Bush by an eight-point margin, 51 to 43 percent. Preferences among women have shown more movement, ranging from a Bush advantage last fall to a Gore advantage this winter. Today it’s roughly a dead heat, 48 to 46 percent.
     Looking at the vote by race sheds more light on the difference by sex. This poll finds hardly any difference between white men and white women; both groups support Bush by double-digit margins. The gender gap currently is wider among nonwhite men and women.
     Among all whites, Bush leads by 55 to 39 percent; among nonwhites, a customarily more Democratic group, Gore leads by 64 to 30 percent.

Swing Voters
Independents and white Catholics are the two classic swing voter groups — that is, groups whose preferences swing between parties from election to election, and that are large enough to heavily affect the outcome. Bush currently leads by 56 to 35 percent among independents; among white Catholics the race is tied, at 47 percent each.
     Gore has a slight four-point edge among moderates. But while Gore leads by 42 points among liberals, Bush leads by 47 points among conservatives — and there are half again as many conservatives as liberals in this country.
     This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 8-11 among a random national sample of 1,204 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.