Bush enters this crucial phase of the campaign with double-digit leads in public trust to handle crime, the death penalty, the economy, taxes and the federal budget. Gore leads by double digits only on two lower-priority concerns, the environment and women’s issues.
     On personal qualities, similarly, Bush holds double-digit leads in five areas — personality, leadership, trustworthiness, speaking his mind and bringing change to Washington. Gore leads by double digits on just one quality, knowledge of world affairs.
     Most fundamental is a perception that Gore is a big-government Democrat, a view that puts him out of step with the majority’s preference. Nearly six in 10 think Gore favors “larger government with many services” over “smaller government with fewer services.” Only a third think that’s true of Bush.
    

In Position
While Bush looks better positioned on issues and qualities, the contest is still close. In a two-way match-up Bush has 48 percent support to Gore’s 45 percent among registered voters, about the same as last month.
     Adding Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader to the mix makes no significant difference; indeed they balance each other’s effect. Nader takes eight points from Gore and four from Bush, while Buchanan takes eight from Bush and four from Gore.
    

4 Way Competition
	Bush	Gore
Reg. voters	48%	45
Reg. voters	Bush 44% Gore 39 Nader 7 Buchanan 6

Among likely voters Bush’s support inches up over half; it’s 51 percent - 45 percent in the two-way race, and 46 percent - 38 percent in the four-way.
     Nader and Buchanan are both doing a couple of points better than they were last month, possibly a result of the thousand cuts Bush and Gore have been inflicting on each other with their near-daily exchange of criticisms. Both major-party candidates have seen single-digit dips in several of their personal ratings.
     Still, support for Nader and Buchanan alike looks downright squirrelly: Half their backers say there’s a “good chance” they’ll change their minds by Election Day. Barely more than 10 percent of Bush and Gore supporters say that.
    

Voters' Decisions
	“Good chance” you’ll change your mind
Bush supporters	13%
Gore supporters	11
Nader supporters	48
Buchanan supporters	51

Another measure makes Bush’s support look a bit hardier than Gore’s: Sixty-five percent of Bush’s supporters say they’re strongly behind him, compared to 56 percent of Gore’s. While it’s less critical now, strength of support can be important in voter turnout.

Vice President
The choice of a vice president usually doesn’t make much (if any) difference in vote choices; voters instead focus their decision on the top of the ticket. Look at 1988; Michael Dukakis won plaudits for his choice of Lloyd Bentsen, while George Bush took criticism for picking Dan Quayle — but it didn’t change the bottom line. Neither did Walter Mondale’s selection of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984: he still lost women.

Differences
Attention to the race remains somewhat muted, not surprising in the post-primary, pre-convention lull that’s now drawing to a close. Half of Americans say they’re following the contest “very” or “somewhat” closely. This peaked at 70 percent during the height of the primaries, suggesting it’ll rise again as the race heats up.
     Whatever their current attention, most Americans do see significant choices. Despite the popular notion of a deeply alienated and broadly dissatisfied electorate, 64 percent say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates. (Though few are “very” satisfied.)
     Seventy-one percent also say there’s a “real difference” between Bush and Gore on the issues; 67 percent say there’s a real difference in terms of their personal qualities. And 77 percent also say it does matter who’s elected. (That’s down from 89 percent in a 1988 poll, which could just mean that Bush and Gore are both broadly acceptable.)

Death Penalty
Recent give and take on the issues seems to have favored Bush. For example, he’s received criticism for presiding over 135 executions as governor of Texas, including, most recently, that of Gary Graham. But since the issue arose support for Bush’s handling of the death penalty has jumped by 18 points, and he’s gained ground on Gore in trust to handle it.
    

Bush’s handling of the death penalty in Texas
	Approve	Disapprove	No opin.
7/23	56	28	16
6/18	38	25	37

Budget
Gore’s criticism of Bush’s fiscal management hasn’t cut his way, either. In April the two were ranked about evenly in trust to handle the federal budget; today Bush leads on this issue by 11 points. And there’s been a steady drop in the number of people who rate it a top concern — 76 percent last fall, 66 percent in April, 58 percent now.
     The two are rated evenly in trust to handle education and Social Security, while other issues show significant differentiation between these candidates. Of 17 issues tested in this poll, Bush has a clear lead in nine; Gore in three.
     Here’s the rundown:

The Issues:
	“Very Important”	Trust to Handle it:
		Today	4/2/00
Education	75%	Tie	Gore +9
Social Security	73	Gore +1	Tie
Health care	73	Gore +9	NA
Crime	72	Bush +17	Bush +15
Economy	71	Bush +10	Bush +6
Moral standards	70	Bush +9	Bush +5
Taxes	64	Bush +13	Bush +16
Environment	60	Gore +24	Gore +24
Budget surplus	60	Bush +8	NA
Federal budget	58	Bush +11	Gore +3
Gun control	58	Bush +7	Bush +4
Internet privacy	58	Bush +1	NA
Foreign affairs	50	Bush +5	Gore +1
Abortion	48	Gore +1	Gore +7
Supreme Court	44	Bush +9	NA
Women’s issues	42	Gore +23	Gore +23
Death penalty	40	Bush +15	Bush +9

Qualities
While both candidates have taken some losses in their ratings of personal qualities, Bush has improved in two. He’s scored a seven-point gain in the number of Americans who think he “says what he thinks, even if it’s not politically popular,” and this is now his biggest advantage over Gore in terms of personal qualities.
     Bush also has gained seven points in having “new ideas.” Here’s that rundown:
    

Candidate qualities:
	Bush	Gore
He says what he thinks	60%	41%	Bush +19
He has an appealing personality	60	45	Bush +15
He knows world affairs	52	66	Gore +14
He’s a strong leader	62	48	Bush +14
He’d bring change to Washington	51	37	Bush +14
He’s honest and trustworthy	59	47	Bush +12
He has new ideas	60	53	Bush +7
He has the right experience	61	67	Gore +6
He understands your problems	44	49	Gore +5
He can keep the economy strong	60	63	Gore +3
He’ll say anything to get elected	59	61	Gore +2

Faves
Overall, majorities of Americans have favorable views of Gore (54 percent favorable) and Bush (an impressive 62 percent) alike. President Clinton has just a 44 percent favorability rating. Nader and Buchanan don’t shine, but neither is as well known.
    

Big Government/Smaller Government?
	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opin.
Bush	62%	29	9
Gore	54	35	11
Clinton	44	50	6
Buchanan	23	44	34
Nader	29	27	44

Liabilities
Gore’s efforts to paint Bush as a “risky” choice haven’t done much: As many people think of Gore as risky (40 percent) as Bush (38 percent). And 36 percent of Americans now think of Gore as “too liberal,” up six points since March. Fewer, 28 percent, call Bush “too conservative,” and that hasn’t changed.
     But Bush has some vulnerabilities of his own. Class distinctions are one: Thirty-nine percent think he favors the wealthy, up eight points from last year; just 19 percent say that about Gore. Still, Bush doesn’t have anything like his father’s trouble here. At the end of his term 61 percent thought President Bush had cared most about serving the wealthy.
    

Cares mainly about serving the wealthy
Gore	19%
Bush	39
President Bush, 1/93	61

Tax Cut
Also, Americans by 53 percent - 37 percent do not believe that Bush could successfully keep the federal budget balanced and cut income taxes at the same time (Bob Dole encountered the same kind of skepticism). And, as in the past, it’s just not a top demand. Asked their preferred use of the surplus, fewer than two in 10 pick a tax cut.

Splits
One reason the race remains close is the split decision on the nation’s direction: About half say it should continue in the same direction in which Clinton has been leading; and about half say the next president should take a new direction.
     Similarly, Americans divide right down the middle, 42 percent - 42 percent, on which party they trust more to handle the nation’s main problems in the next few years. And that’s reflected in preferences for congressional seats: Among registered voters, 46 percent favor the Democrat running in their district, 45 percent the Republican.

Gender Gap
Bush has strengthened his support among men while Gore is doing better among women; these shifts push the gender gap to 22 points, the highest so far in the campaign and (if it holds) larger than in previous elections.
     Gore now leads Bush among women by seven points, 50 percent - 43 percent (among registered voters); the two had run about even among women in May and June. At the same time Bush now leads 54 percent - 39 percent among men.
     Independents, the key swing voter group, are split between Bush and Gore, 46 percent - 44 percent. Bush has a 51 percent - 42 percent edge among white Catholics, another swing group, but Gore has a similar 52 percent - 42 percent advantage among moderates.
     Bush is doing better than usual for a Republican among Hispanics, who were oversampled for this poll; Gore has a Democrat’s customarily overwhelming support from blacks. There’ll be more on the vote by race in a subsequent analysis.
    

Demographics
	Bush	Gore
Men	54%	39
Women	43	50
White	54	39
Blacks	12	83
Hispanics	35	59
Independent	42	52
Catholic	51	42

Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 20-23, among a random national sample of 1,228 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.