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In a hypothetical match-up, Americans now say they would vote for President Clinton over George W. Bush — a change from last winter when Bush was the preferred candidate — according to a new ABCNEWS.com poll. (ABCNEWS.com)
Four More Years?
Americans Would Vote for Clinton Over Bush

Analysis
By Dalia Sussman

ABCNEWS.com

Oct. 4— The comeback kid has done it again: Bill Clinton slightly outpoints George W. Bush in a hypothetical test of public preferences for president, after trailing Bush last winter.
    

Of course the 22nd Amendment prevents Clinton from seeking a third term. But the result does mark quite a change from January: Then Bush led in the hypothetical matchup by 51-42 percent. Now it’s a slight Clinton edge, 45-40 percent.


Prefer Clinton or Bush?
 Clinton Bush
10/1/00 45% 40%
1/26/00 42% 51%


     “Comeback” could be overstating it, since there’s been more of a drop in Bush’s support (down 11 points) than a gain in Clinton’s (up three). (More people say they wouldn’t vote for either one.) Also, the 45-40 percent number is among the general public. Among registered voters it’s 44-41 percent. (This poll didn’t try to isolate likely voters.)
     Bush, of course, has more serious concerns. In January he led his real opponent, Al Gore, by a sizable margin; now it’s a dead heat in the latest ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll.

Groups
Clinton is supported by some of the same groups that backed him in 1996. Men divide evenly, while women favor the president by a 10-point margin. Clinton also does better with younger Americans and, naturally, with Democrats.


How Groups Rate Clinton, Bush
  Clinton Bush
Men 42% 42%
Women 47% 37%
 
Age:    
18-34 50% 35%
65+ 34% 48%
 
   
Democrats 80% 9%
Independents 36% 40%
Republicans 6% 87%

Methodology
This ABCNEWS.com survey was conducted by telephone Sept. 27-Oct. 1, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,008 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

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Field work for this ABCNEWS.com poll was done by ICR/International Communications Research, Media, Pa.







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