August 29, 2001
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Vicente Fox and President Bush
President Bush shakes hands with Mexican President Vicente Fox earlier this year in Mexico. Fox visits Bush in Washington next week to discuss illegal immigrants. (John Moore/AP Photo)
Border Lines
Poll Shows Public Opinion Split
on Residency for Mexican Illegals

Analysis
By Gary Langer

ABCNEWS.com

Aug. 29 — The nation divides over a Bush administration proposal to offer legal residency to illegal immigrants from Mexico, with support strongest among nonwhites and in the West.


Overall, 43 percent of Americans say they'd support a plan "in which illegal immigrants from Mexico would be allowed to live and work legally in the United States," while 49 percent say they'd oppose it. Details have not been fleshed out by the administration.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.
Most opinions are not strongly held; 13 percent support the idea "strongly," while 30 percent say they strongly oppose it. That shows room for both sides to influence views on the issue, though the opposition starts from a stronger base.

Most Whites Oppose Plan

Most striking are the racial and regional differences: Forty percent of whites support the idea; this jumps to 62 percent for nonwhites. And it wins 56 percent support in the West, compared to a low of 37 percent in the Midwest.

Some political strategists have promoted the idea as a way for Bush to improve his support among Hispanics, who backed Al Gore by 62 percent to 35 percent last November. But the plan is less popular in George W. Bush's base; Republicans oppose it by 58 percent to 36 percent.


Legal Residency for Illegal Immigrants from Mexico
  Support Oppose
All
43%
49
Nonwhites
62
31
Whites
40
53
West
56
38
East
45
44
South
39
53
Midwest
37
58
Independents
48
44
Democrats
45
48
Republicans
36
58

Bush on Friday denied any political motivation. "There are people in Mexico who have got children who are worried about where they are going to get their next meal from," he said. "And they are going to come to the United States, if they think they can make money here. That's a simple fact. And they're willing to walk across miles of desert to do work that some Americans won't do. And we've got to respect that, it seems like to me, and treat those people with respect."

Opposition across the population is lower than might be expected, given that people who'd benefit from such a program are here illegally. That's an issue raised by critics such as Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., and Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, who's warned against any program that "rewards lawlessness." Support could rise, too, if the ultimate program is limited to illegal immigrants who have been paying taxes here, as some have proposed.

Some Democrats have complained that the program may be limited to illegal immigrants from Mexico, not from elsewhere, though this, too, is not clear. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle said Tuesday night he favors legalization for all undocumented workers who've been working and paying taxes in the United States.

As of now — with the unsettled state of the program's details — this poll finds somewhat less support for a broader program that would include non-Mexican immigrants: Opposition advances to 56 percent, with support at 38 percent.


Legal Status for Illegal Immigrants
  Support Oppose
... from Mexico 43% 49
... from other countries 38 56

There are an estimated 3 million to 4 million Mexicans in the United States illegally, and it's been reported that as many as half of them could fall under the plan being devised by the Bush administration. A law passed by Congress and signed by Ronald Reagan in 1986 gave legal status to an estimated 3 million illegal immigrants from all countries. (It didn't help Bush's father with Hispanics in 1988; he lost them by 69 percent to 30 percent.)

Bush has said he opposes any such "blanket amnesty," maintaining that the term "amnesty" isn't applicable to the program he has in mind. It's been described instead as a "guest worker" program in which illegal immigrants could register for available jobs and move gradually toward permanent residency status.

Bush is expected to continue discussions on the issue next week with Mexican President Vicente Fox, who has urged U.S. immigration reform. Fox arrives Tuesday, honored as the Bush administration's first official state visitor.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS.com survey was conducted by telephone August 22-26, 2001, among a random national sample of 1,024 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

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