W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 10
— Most Americans favor reducing President Bush's prized tax cut to deal with the shrinking federal surplus, while large majorities oppose dipping into Social Security funds or easing back on plans to spend more on education or prescription drugs.
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In a new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, 57 percent support reducing the size of the tax cut to keep the budget in surplus. Nearly half, 46 percent, support the next most-popular option — dropping planned increases in military spending.
But other choices are broadly unpopular. A total of 92 percent oppose using surplus Social Security funds to pay for other programs. Eight in 10 oppose this strongly, a rare level of concentrated opposition. And two-thirds or more oppose cutting back planned spending increases for education and prescription drug benefits.
Even among Republicans and conservatives, support for reducing the tax cut is higher than it is for these other options. And, perhaps surprisingly, support for trimming back the tax cut peaks among the fifth of Americans with the highest household incomes, $75,000 a year and more.
Indeed, the tax cut, never broadly popular, if anything is less so now, despite the arrival of rebate checks this summer. In July 37 percent of Americans thought the tax cut would be good for the economy. Today just 18 percent think it's helping.
And economic concerns are running high. Positive ratings of the national economy have plummeted by more than 50 points since the 2000 election, from 86 percent then to 33 percent now. Consumer confidence, tracked weekly by ABCNEWS and Money magazine, slid last week to its worst in more than four years. And 53 percent of Americans in this poll think a recession is on the way.
Who's to Blame?
The slowing economy takes top blame for the shrinking surplus, followed by the tax cut. The public divides evenly on Bush's responsibility for the problem, and somewhat fewer blame either the Republicans or Democrats in Congress.
Responsibility for Lower Surplus
Great deal/ Good amount
Just some/ hardly any
Slowing economy
52%
43
Tax cut
50
46
Bush
48
48
Republicans
44
50
Democrats
42
53
Tightening the focus, this poll asked who's more responsible for the lower surplus, Bush or the Democrats. Bush takes the honors by a 14-point margin, 52 percent to 38 percent.
Better, probably for both sides, is that the shrinking surplus has yet to generate broad alarm; just a third of Americans say they're worried about it to any serious degree. That can change, particularly if and when it causes cuts that people feel.
The public's darker economic views put Bush — and everyone else in politics — at risk. Absent war, nothing sours the political mood as reliably as worsening economic conditions. Today Bush's job approval rating is more than 30 points worse among people who think the economy's in bad shape.
Bush's overall job rating is still positive, though, at 55 percent approval. But that's below average for a postwar president at this point in his first year. And specifically on handling the economy, Bush's approve-disapprove rating falls to 48-48, his worst to date. People now trust the Democrats in Congress over Bush to handle the economy, albeit by a tepid six-point margin, 50 percent to 44 percent.
Bush also shows some deterioration in other areas. For the first time, more disapprove than approve of his handling of Social Security. Disapproval of his work on prescription drugs is approaching 2-1. He's dropped to an even split on the budget, and he gets no gain in international affairs despite hosting Mexican President Vicente Fox last week.
Better for Bush is a slight gain in his rating on the environment, a score he's worked hard this summer to improve.
Bush's best rating by far — nearly 2-1 approval — is for his work on education. This was arguably the single most critical issue in his election, and it's one in which he still holds a substantial advantage over the Democrats. That edge is especially crucial today given the weakened economy and Bush's slippage in two other top-shelf election issues, Social Security and drug coverage for senior citizens.
The importance of education to Bush's fortunes raises the stakes on the shrinking surplus. If budget problems were to force a retrenchment in education, his best issue could be endangered.
Bush's handling of...
Approve
Disapprove
Overall job
55%
41
Education
61
32
Defense
53
34
Int'l affairs
53
40
Environment
50
44
Patients' rights
49
37
Economy
48
48
Budget
46
48
Energy
42
51
Social Security
41
50
Prescription drugs
32
56
There's a gender gap in many of these. Bush's ratings on education, Social Security, prescription drugs and defense are 14 to 18 points higher among men than women.
Another gauge, useful in the upcoming congressional debates, measures Bush against the Democrats in trust to handle each of these issues. Education is the only one in which he holds a significant lead. (He has a slight numerical edge in defense and international affairs.)
By contrast, the Democrats lead Bush in public trust to handle six of the 10 issues tested in this poll, including the economy, Social Security, patients' rights, the environment, energy and prescription drugs.
Bush and the Democrats run evenly in trust to handle the prime issue on the congressional agenda, the budget. Similarly, the public continues to split evenly on the broad question of whose overall direction they prefer — Bush's, or the Democrats'.
Who Do You Trust More to Handle ...
Bush
Democrats
Margin
Education
55
36
Bush +19
Int'l affairs
48
44
Bush +4
Defense
47
43
Bush +4
Budget
46
46
=
Economy
44
50
Dems +6
Patients' rights
41
48
Dems +7
Social Security
41
50
Dems +9
Energy
39
49
Dems +10
Environment
41
52
Dems +11
Prescription drugs
36
50
Dems +14
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 6-9 among a random national sample of 1,009 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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