With likely voters deeply divided along demographic and ideological lines — including a 29-point gender gap — George W. Bush has 48 percent support in this ABCNEWS tracking poll, Al Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader three and Pat Buchanan one.
     The race has been remarkably stable: The results today are precisely the same as their average across the last 20 nights. And the divisions are impressive: Huge Bush leads among traditionally Republican groups, such as white Protestants; huge Gore leads among traditionally Democratic groups, such as union voters and racial minorities. And swing groups still dividing closely.
     That’s what makes turnout so important. Gore’s supported by nine in 10 blacks, six in 10 voters from union households and six in 10 Hispanics; he also holds a 12-point lead in big cities. Bush is preferred by six in 10 white Protestants, six in 10 rural voters and eight in 10 white religious conservatives.
     Take union voters as an example: They account for 19 percent of all likely voters in this poll, which is down from their share in the 1996 election, 23 percent. If they boost their turnout to reach or exceed its 1996 level, they’d boost Gore in the process.
     The Nader factor is another question: Half of his supporters still say they might change their minds, and they pick Gore over Bush as a second choice by 2-1. The questions are whether many do move, and whether there are enough of them, on a state-by-state basis, to make a difference.
     And there are lightly committed voters: People in this group, now seven percent of likely voters, don’t feel strongly about their choice and may change their minds (or are outright undecided). It’s a group with disproportionate numbers of independents, moderates and Catholics; a one-directional swing in their preferences could change the race.

Philosophies Divide Men, Women
And then there’s the battle of the sexes. Men favor Bush by a 19-point margin; white men prefer him by 29 points. Women, on the other hand, favor Gore by 10 points, and white women divide about evenly. If it holds, it would be the biggest gender gap by far since exit polls began in 1980.
     The gender gap has been bigger than usual this year in part because the election has cut to a fundamental issue that divides men and women: The size of government. Men are more apt to want a smaller government that does less; women are less sure. It’s a substantive difference that fuels vote choices.

State of the Union
Another factor is the state of the nation after eight years of Clinton/Gore — and this is one that’s kept Gore in the race. Six in 10 likely voters are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, and they support Gore by a 25-point margin. Bush roars back — by about a 50-point margin — among the third who’re dissatisfied.

How Are Things Going in the U.S.?
How things are going in the US:		Vote Preference
	All	Bush	Gore	Gap
Satisfied	62%	35%	60%	Gore +25
Disstatisfied	36%	72%	19%	Bush +53

Voters Rate Personal Qualities
Gore’s maintained his 20-point lead on experience; 72 percent of likely voters say he’s got the “right kind of experience to be president,” compared to 52 percent for Bush. That helps drive Gore’s support among voters who seek continuity. But Bush’s rating for experience may still be enough — if narrowly — to make the grade.
     If Bush is weak on experience, so is Gore in his rating for honesty and trustworthiness — an example of the divisions that have made this race close. Likely voters split evenly, 47-47 percent, on whether Gore is honest and trustworthy; by contrast they see Bush as trustworthy by 60-33 percent.
     Bush’s rating for honesty and trustworthiness has been essentially unscathed by the revelation of his DUI arrest in 1976. And despite that episode, 69 percent of likely voters say he has strong personal character, 12 points better than Gore’s rating for character.
     On one other personal quality — empathy — the two run close. Fifty-three percent say Gore understands the problems of average people; 48 percent say Bush does. There was a far bigger gap on this quality in the 1996 election — 14 points in Bill Clinton’s favor.

Tight Race for Swing Voters
Independents are a classic swing voter group; they’ve backed the winner in the last five elections, and in this poll they favor Bush by nine points. But it’s Gore +2 among white Catholics — and that group also has gone with the winner since 1980.
     It’s very close in other battleground groups. Among suburbanites, Bush +3; among small-town residents, Bush +4; in the middle class, Gore +2.
     And it’s there, in the middle class, that the gender gap reaches its height: Among middle-class men, Bush +23; among middle-class women, Gore +26. It’s those kinds of divisions that kept this race so close, right down to its final hours.

Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Nov. 3-5, among a random national sample of 1,801 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin. ABCNEWS and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.