For the first time in ABCNEWS/Washington Post polls, fewer than half of Americans, 47 percent, approve of Bush's overall job performance, while more, 50 percent, disapprove. The president's approval rating matches Gerald Ford's in the spring before his narrow loss in the 1976 presidential election.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

Bush's rating specifically for handling the situation in Iraq likewise is at its worst of his career; 58 percent disapprove. Disapproval of his handling of the prisoner abuse scandal has spiked by 22 points — 57 percent disapprove, up from 35 percent earlier this month. His rating on the economy, while stable, is hardly better; 54 percent disapprove, with 64 percent saying rising gasoline prices have caused financial hardship in their families.

Some results counter these concerns. There is optimism for the future on Iraq, and a continued majority commitment to remain there until order is restored. And Bush is even with John Kerry in presidential preference, and ahead of him on a variety of personal attributes.

Still, there's broad skepticism on Bush's policies and progress in Iraq, which the president is to address in a speech tonight. Nearly two-thirds say the United States has gotten bogged down there. Nearly six in 10 say the administration lacks a clear plan. And just 38 percent see significant U.S. progress toward establishing a democratic government.

Fifty-four percent believe the war did enhance long-term U.S. security, its fundamental rationale. But that's also inched to a new low, eight points below its peak. And the public continues to divide over whether the war was worth fighting; 48 percent say it was, but 50 percent say not, with equal intensity on both sides.

Yet while concerns are high, the bottom has not fallen out for Bush on Iraq. The public's division on whether the war was or was not worth fighting has been essentially even since February. Fifty-eight percent say U.S. forces should remain until civil order is restored even if that means sustaining further casualties. And — despite skepticism about the current situation — most are maintaining a positive outlook: Fifty-five percent say they're optimistic about the situation in Iraq over the next 12 months, not much different than it was in January.

Also better for Bush, approval of his handling of terrorism — while at a new low — remains much higher than his other ratings; 58 percent approve. (But it's the first time this has inched below six in 10.) And Kerry has drawn only modest benefit from the president's troubles. Bush still leads in most personal attributes and in trust to handle Iraq and terrorism, and, as noted, the contest between them is a dead heat.

One notable result is the comparatively high level of attention Americans are paying to the presidential contest. Defying a traditional lull between the primaries and conventions, a third are following it "very" closely, twice the level at about this point in 2000. The candidates' aggressive television advertising campaigns may be playing a role.

Iraq Abuse

High on the list of concerns to Bush must be the change in views of his handling of the prisoner abuse scandal. In an ABCNEWS/Post poll early this month, 48 percent approved; in the last three weeks that's fallen by a dozen points, to 36 percent, while disapproval has spiked in the face of continuing disclosures.

Current views, moreover, continue to be premised on the notion that the abuse represents "a few isolated incidents" (60 percent think so) rather than a more widespread problem. That suggests a risk to the president if the abuse is shown to be more pervasive than most now believe. (Sixty percent also see the incidents as abuse, but not torture; if actions seen as torture were to be disclosed, this, too, could darken views of the situation.)

Additionally, 54 percent think the soldiers involved were following orders rather than acting on their own, indicating a sense that culpability goes higher up the chain of command. And the secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld, gets just an even split in views of his handling of the military investigation of the situation — 47 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove.

Personal responses show a move toward greater polarization on the abuse scandal. There's been a seven-point increase in the number of Americans who say they're "angry" about it, to 31 percent. At the same time, there's been a five-point gain in the number who're "not concerned" about it at all, though far fewer, 12 percent, express that view.

Iraq Progress

Another concern is the perceived lack of progress in Iraq. More than half of Americans have disapproved of Bush's handling of the situation there steadily since February; as noted, it's now peaked at a new high, 58 percent.

Disapproval spikes among those who think the United States has gotten bogged down, lacks a clear plan and hasn't made significant progress in establishing a democratic government — all majority-held views. And the number who say the United States has gotten bogged down has gained six points since last month, to 65 percent.

There's continued political polarization in these views. Just 12 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of independents approve of Bush's work on Iraq, compared with 75 percent of Republicans. Seven in 10 Republicans say the war was worth fighting; that falls to half of independents and a quarter of Democrats.

There also are vast political divisions in optimism for the future. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans are optimistic about where the situation in Iraq is headed over the next year; that falls to 53 percent of independents, and further, to 36 percent of Democrats.

The Situation in Iraq
	Yes	No
Has the U.S. gotten bogged down?	65%	33%
Does Bush have a clear plan?	39	59
Stay in Iraq, even if more casualties?	58	40

Gas Prices

Iraq is not the president's only problem. The number of Americans who say rising gasoline prices have caused financial hardship in their families, 64 percent, is up 10 points from last month; 37 percent say it's a "serious" hardship, also up. While just a quarter blame the administration directly, any economic discontent is a political hazard for an incumbent president.

Election

Kerry draws just modest benefit from Bush's difficulties. He's got a scant five-point lead over Bush in trust to handle the economy, and it's Bush +6 in trust to handle Iraq and Bush +13 in trust to handle terrorism. But Bush did somewhat better against the Democratic candidate on all these a month ago.

Trust to Handle It
	Bush	Kerry	Bush-Kerry Gap
Terrorism	52%	39%	+13
Iraq	48	42	+6
Economy	43	48	-5

Bush continues to be better rated than Kerry in honesty, strong leadership and consistency; he's also much better rated in trust to handle a crisis and making the country more secure. However, 57 percent think Bush doesn't understand the problems of average Americans — an important measure of empathy that, when present, can shield a president when the chips are down. And just 49 percent think Bush is "willing to listen to different points of view." Kerry does better on both of these, particularly the latter; 69 percent say he will listen to differing viewpoints.

Like views of his handling of the war on terrorism, Bush's rating on making the country "safer and more secure" may be crucial to his re-election prospects; these are the wellsprings of his support. And there's trouble here for the president: Last fall 63 percent said he's made the country safer and more secure; today 52 percent say so.

At the same time, this is another area where Kerry has not capitalized. Fewer, 39 percent, think he would make the country safer.

Dead Heat

In a three-way matchup among registered voters, Bush has 46 percent support, Kerry 46 percent and Ralph Nader 4 percent; it was a similar 48 percent-43 percent-6 percent last month. Two-way it's also tied, 47 percent for Bush to 49 percent for Kerry, also about the same as last month.

There is something of a shift in the nature of Bush's support: Fewer Bush voters — 77 percent, down from 86 percent — are mainly "for" him rather than "against" Kerry. Most Kerry voters, though, remain mainly "against" Bush.

One possible reason Kerry's having trouble with traction is that his positions are much less well-known than Bush's. Two-thirds of Americans feel they have a good handle on Bush's positions on specific issues; for Kerry, this falls to 42 percent. As in any incumbent election, the basic question is whether Kerry, as he becomes better known, can stand as an acceptable alternative for those who're disenchanted with Bush.

Base

Bush has seen some erosion among parts of his base. His job approval rating is down by eight points among men since last month, down by seven points among Republicans and down by 11 points among conservatives. (Women, Democrats, independents, liberals and moderates are virtually unchanged.) It's also down by seven points among those who say Iraq is the most important issue in their vote, and in veteran households.

Some of this has translated to the horse race. Men were +13 for Bush last month; now they divide almost evenly. Conservatives were +53 for Bush; now they're +36. Veteran households were +10 for Bush; now they divide about evenly.

Groups

Race is one of the most striking dividing lines in politics today. Whites are twice as likely as nonwhites to approve of Bush's job performance, 53 percent to 27 percent. On the economy, only 26 percent of nonwhites approve, compared with 49 percent of whites. On Iraq, his approval among non-whites is lower still, 19 percent.

These play out in presidential preference as well — in the three-way matchup, there is a 14-point lead for Bush among whites but an enormous 42-point Kerry lead among nonwhites.

Past Presidents

As noted, Bush's approval rating, at 47 percent, is the same as President Ford's at this point in 1976; Ford lost re-election to Jimmy Carter by just two percentage points, 50 percent to 48 percent.

Bush's rating is better, though, than his father's, who stood at 40 percent approval and sinking in May 1992. (Bill Clinton had 58 percent approval at this point in 1996; Ronald Reagan, 57 percent in 1984; Jimmy Carter, 38 percent in May 1980.) In terms of the election, this President Bush's biggest problem is probably not his current approval rating, but its trajectory.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 20-23 among a random national sample of 1,005 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

See previous analyses, full questionnaire and details of the poll's methodology in our Poll Vault.