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While Texas Democrats are certain to elect a Hispanic nominee for governor today, and possibly send another Hispanic to their US Senate run-off in the race to replace Senator Phil Gramm (R), the GOP will maneuver for support in Washington.

The diversity of Democrats' candidate benches for governor and Senate in Texas is widely viewed in political circles as a precursor of races to come throughout the Southwest, Florida and California. So it's not a promising omen for Republicans that, despite George W. Bush's efforts to attract Hispanics to the party both during his 2000 campaign and as president, they were unable to persuade a Hispanic (and they had at least one strong possibility) to seek their Senate nomination.

Bringing Hispanics into the Republican party is a big Rove and Co. long-term project, since growing the party won't happen if they can't appeal to said voters. For now, mega-states Texas, California, and Florida are the big targets, but there are a whole bunch of other, smaller states where the Democrats could develop an unbeatable black-Hispanic-liberal coalition if Republicans don't alter the trend lines.

Could all of this have anything to do with what House Republicans are going to be up to later today?, we ask rhetorically. The Washington Times reports, "House Republican leaders will attempt to slip through an unrecorded vote this evening to give amnesty to hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants, allowing them to remain legally in the United States." ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020312-14737528.htm )

"The amnesty measure will come before the representatives by way of a special arrangement between the White House and the House leadership. It will appear among a batch of uncontroversial bills that typically win pro forma approval without amendment or debate."

"Opponents" — including some Republicans, apparently — "say the Bush administration is using stealth tactics to get its way. They say the Republican Party is trying to schmooze Hispanic voters and appease Mexican leaders."

Meanwhile, in Texas, Republicans will nominate two white guys for Senate and governor: state Attorney General John Cornyn and sitting Gov. Rick Perry.

Democrats will choose between wealthy businessman Tony Sanchez, whose unprecedented spending is another highlight of this primary, and former state Attorney General Dan Morales for governor. For Senate, they'll probably send two of their three viable candidates — Rep. Ken Bentsen, nephew of Lloyd; former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, who is African-American; and schoolteacher and 1996 Senate candidate Victor Morales — to an April 9 run-off, since none of them is expected to break 50 percent of the vote.

Polls opened at 8:00 am ET and will close at 8:00 p.m. ET. Some of the candidates probably will be exit polling, but we have yet to hear of any being conducted for public consumption; early voting makes exit polling tricky here.

Republicans worry about losing this first big Latino popularity contest of the election cycle to Democrats. However, while certain Democratic officials are reveling in the photo-op symbolism of their candidate field, some of their own strategists are tying themselves in knots trying to puzzle out the political prospects, and possible complications, of fielding a diverse, possibly all-minority top of the ticket in November.

Up on Capitol Hill, the Senate recommences the energy policy debate today, while the House gets down to budget matters, which will yield some rhetoric reflecting the parties' current, sorta blurry strategies for November.

The House budget battle will kick off with a floor speech by House Minority Leader Gephardt who, per a spokesperson, will focus on Social Security. The Washington Times notes, "Democrats are hoping to use the message of protecting Social Security during this year's election season. They will point out that Mr. Bush's budget uses revenue meant for the Social Security and Medicare trust funds. Countering that argument and reassuring elderly voters will be a prime task for the Republicans." ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020312-15810760.htm )

"Republicans will present their budget in committee tomorrow and expect to pass it that day. It is scheduled for a vote on the House floor next week."

The Washington Post 's Dionne smartly points out Democrats' "paradoxical problem" in approaching the midterm elections: "They are so close to controlling both houses that they are petrified of doing anything that might get in the way. But their fear of failure threatens strategic gridlock. Worrying too much about losing is not a strategy for winning." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11064-2002Mar11.html )

"Democrats are likely to stick with economics because of another peculiarity of the hand they've been dealt: Roughly three-quarters of the 60 House seats that could change hands this year are in southern, rural or industrial areas. The rural vote will also be important in many of the critical Senate races. These are not places where social liberalism on abortion rights and gun control work to the Democrats' advantage."

On energy, the Los Angeles Times Brownstein and Simon point out that both parties' guiding rationales for a bill could get wiped out this week, producing "a bill that only tinkers around the margins of America's energy problems--if a bill emerges from Congress at all." ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/
la-000018311mar12.story?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )

"In a form of mutually assured destruction, the central proposals for increasing both domestic energy production and conservation look doomed. Environmentalists appear to have the votes to prevent oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the top priority of the Bush administration and the energy industry. Meanwhile, the administration and the auto industry are in position to block mandated increases in automotive fuel economy, the top goal for the environmental movement and most Democrats."

Further down in the story is this: "Privately, the White House has made clear it wants the Senate to pass a bill, virtually no matter what it contains," because they're betting that the resulting conference would produce something more like the House GOP bill, which they like.

President Bush has an unusually packed schedule today, including a quick trip to Philadelphia to make remarks on national service. No fundraiser attached — that will come later today, when Bush headlines an event in Washington to raise money for House Speaker Dennis Hastert's PAC.

Bush also will meet with the Russian Defense Minister and the president of Uzbekistan. Vice President Cheney is on his way to Jordan.

Since we're mostly unable to report on Cheney's trip ahead of time for security reasons, all the papers today report on what he's leaving in his wake.

The ABCNEWS London bureau notes that Jordanian King Abdullah is expected to express his unease over possible US military action against Iraq; Abdullah warned over the weekend that striking Iraq would be a "catastrophe" for the region.

The Washington Post reports, "A senior administration official said Bush has made no decision about action against Iraq, but was signaling other nations that this is a 'time to talk about the future of Iraq, a post-Saddam Iraq' … [T]he official said the White House is optimistic about support for future phases of the war. 'What you're hearing from the allies are cautions, but not by any means resistance or a rejection,' the official said." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10814-2002Mar11.html )

"Bush's address … did not satisfy the Democratic lawmakers who have urged him to elaborate on his war plans. Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) said in an interview that Bush had articulated 'many important goals' that he must explain to Congress and the nation in the days ahead."

In the best tradition of the Note (at once as serious as a PBS special on Peru and whimsical as Heckyl and Jeckyl ( http://www.takotyko.com/company.htm), we identify today's most important op-ed piece by paraphrasing it in the form of a MadLib:

It takes a Senator as _________ (adjective) as Senator Byrd, whose knowledge of ________ (noun) is legendary, to publicly make the point, as he does in his ________ (adjective) New York Times op-ed, that the administration's failure to consult widely with Congress about the course of the war is unwise, and that his own co-equal branch has an obligation to ask questions. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/12/opinion/12BYRD.html )

(Send your entires to the Political Unit )

Also on tap today, politics-wise, Al Gore will headline a fundraiser for Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts at a steakhouse in DC, and the Democratic House campaign committee will hold the aforementioned third in their trio of fundraisers, also in DC.

From the ABCNEWS London Bureau: The Israeli army has seized control of most of the West Bank city of Ramallah in its biggest operation since the Palestinian uprising began. It follows an Israeli incursion overnight into the Jabalya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip in which at least 17 Palestinians died and many more were wounded. Reports suggest that more than 100 Israeli tanks were involved in the operation in Ramallah. There have been fierce exchanges of fire and tanks have moved to within 20 meters of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's headquarters.

US bombers continue to pound the remaining al Qaeda and Taliban positions in the snowcapped Shah-e-Kot mountains while US-allied Afghan fighters moved tanks into position and prepared for what commanders described as a final push to eradicate al Qaeda fighters hunkered down for a last stand. Reuters reports that local Afghan leaders were considering a proposal to allow all the remaining Taliban and al Qaeda fighters to leave the province.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Tonight's Gore-sponsored fundraiser for Rep. Richard Neal at Bobby Van's steakhouse in DC will start at 5:00 p.m., with Gore expected to make remarks around 6:30 p.m..

Tipper Gore today will moderate a town hall meeting on mental health issues in the wake of September 11 at the National Press Club Ballroom, starting at 9:30 am.

Speaking of the Latino vote, this just arrived via e-mail before we published: "Lieberman to Receive Legislative Award from Prominent Latin-American Citizens Group, Joins Colin Powell in being honored at Wednesday dinner."

More from the Los Angeles Times story on the energy bill: "Privately, senior administration officials acknowledge they are well short of the 60 Senate votes they would need to break a filibuster against Bush's effort to open a portion of the Arctic refuge to oil drilling. Sens. John F. Kerry (D-Mass) and Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), both of whom are exploring a run for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, have pledged to filibuster any provision to open ANWR to drilling."

"The prospects for increasing fuel economy requirements--known formally as CAFE, or corporate average fuel economy standards--don't look much brighter" for lead sponsor Kerry.

A Kerry fundraising luncheon in Boston yesterday featuring five women US Senators, including Senator Clinton, and (at least) one candidate for governor of New Hampshire is expected to bring in $200,000. ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/071/
metro/A_run_through_for_Kerry_backers+.shtml )

For Kerry watchers, the best part of the story is the end: "All of the speeches were heavy with references to the Sept. 11 attacks. And as Kerry was leaving, he was asked whether it was in poor taste to hold his fund-raiser on the six-month anniversary. Kerry continued to walk away, but his wife, Teresa Heinz, swung on her heels and walked back to the microphone. 'This was supposed to take place in October' and was postponed, she said. 'This was the only day these senators were able to do it."'

In an editorial (body) slamming Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura for proposing tax increases to deal with the state's budget problems, the The Wall Street Journal has kind words for the spending-cutting discipline of the Republican governor of Wisconsin and the Democratic governor of Iowa, Mr. T. Vilsack.

If you find this Manchester Union Leader lead boring — "Democratic state Rep. John Kacavas and former Republican Mayor Raymond Wieczorek — both from Manchester — will face off today in the special election for the Executive Council District 4 seat" — then you clearly aren't deep into the rhythm of the invisible primary. ( http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=9519 )

Politics

The New York Post tees up Thursday's expected release of the House committee's report on President Clinton's pardons, with a focus on his brothers-in-law. ( http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/43364.htm )

The hard-to-please Michiko Kakutani doesn't much like Joe Klein's Clinton book, finding its thesis (42 is a mass of contradictions) less original than she would like. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/12/books/12KAKU.html )

The New York Post has mini-coverage (but more than anyone else) of last night's Bill Clinton appearance at a DCCC fundraiser in Manhattan. ( http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/43369.htm )

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton addresses a Harvard audience yesterday, criticizing the president on the size of his tax cut and adding her voice to the semi-standard Democratic view that there's more to the war against terrorism than military might. Observers in the auditorium, which was about three-quarters full, tell us she was politely received. ( http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=180535 )

USA Today has a political cartoon summing up the Democrats woes on the improving economy. Which one is MM? ( http://www.usatoday.com/news/comment/nctoons.htm

The Washington Post Style section runs an awesome profile of Libertarian bartender Ed Thompson, mayor of a small Wisconsin town called Tomah, who is running for governor — and happens to be former Governor-turned-HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson's brother. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11132-2002Mar11.html )

Texas

If you are one of those people who must get your news from the New York Times or else you just won't believe it, skip Jim Yardley's perfunctory curtain raiser ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/12/politics/12TEXA.html ) and read the better piece on the editorial page by Andres Martinez that compares gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez to both Michael Bloomberg and Bill Cosby. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/12/opinion/_12TUE4.html )

A new law aimed at ensuring a uniform evaluation of hand-counted ballots might drag out tonight's canvassing. In past years, officials counted ballots as they were cast, but now, punch-card ballots and the like will be brought to the county canvassing spots and counted there after the polls close. ( http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/politics/1291314

Harris County is the most affected, and since Houston represents the base of Democratic Senate candidate Ken Bentsen, it's worth keeping an eye on.

Here's our own preview, which includes a look at how votes are counted in Texas. ( http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/Texas_020311.html )

The Houston Chronicle has a good voter guide section. ( http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/02/vgprim/index.html )

North Texas saw rain yesterday, but it's clear and sunny today, so officials expect (or hope for) good turnout. ( http://news.mysanantonio.com/story.cfm?xla=saen&xlb=401&xlc=637120&xld=400 )

Contested local races might drive up voting in the borderlands. ( http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/ )

Tennessee

Lamar Alexander's announcement that he would seek retiring Fred Thompson's Senate seat was overshadowed in Democratic Memphis by hints about Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. who, according to the Commercial Appeal, "talked as if he were already in the race." Ford will do some polling and travel to central and east Tennessee, where his level of support is more questionable. ( http://www.gomemphis.com/mca/local_news/article/0,1426,MCA_437_1026041,00.html )

Alexander, famous for his plaid shirt and exclamation points, said in 2000 that his electoral aspirations had died from exhaustion. Two presidential runs were enough. He's even a visiting professor at Harvard's Kennedy School, a veritable heaven for ex-politicos. But nothing can revive dreams like an open Senate seat and the backing of one of the nation's top fundraisers, Ted Welch.

In the primary, Lamar won't face Rep. Zach Wamp, who yesterday said he won't run. But he does seem likely — barring some fast and smart deal-cutting — to face conservative Rep. Ed Bryant, who could give him a serious race. Lamar supporters, including Republicans in Washington, already are starting to beat the "more electable" drum. Lamar can win a primary, but he'll have to go from retirement zero to 60.

The Nashville-based Tennessean played yesterday's news straight, comparing Bryant's promise to raise $2 million to Alexander's fundamental fundraising strength, and comparing Bryant's conservatism to Alexander's fundamental moderateness. ( http://www.tennessean.com/local/archives/02/03/14802652.shtml?Element_ID=14802652 )

We still don't have a good sense of whether the Post -Riordan White House will try to muscle Bryant out of the race. And what of the Good Doctor, Tennessee's own Senator Bill Frist, who chairs the party's Senate campaign committee? We suspect he may be maneuvering to avoid a messy primary, just like the Democrats are.

If Ford gets in the race, he would probably create the most excitement among Democrats in the short term. At this point, no Democrats have gotten in, and they only have until the April 4 filing deadline to decide. Likely to entice at least some Democrats into the race: we still think the gubernatorial race could end up affecting this one, probably to the Democrats' benefit.

Florida

Gov. Jeb Bush may be attempting to control the Enron story. Bush is considering, in his role as state executive, suing the money management firm that lost hundreds of million of dollars worth of state pension funds on Enron. ( http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/2840130.htm)

Plum out of new ways to report Janet Reno's Big Red Truck Tour, the Orlando Sentinel's Silva resorts to scribing about whether Reno likes lavender-scented sheets. (Seriously.) ( http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-locrenohome12031202mar12.column?coll=orl%2Dhome%2Dheadlines )

Mocked by the national press, Reno's truck tour has gotten mostly respectful (if unspectacular) press coverage at home, but her appearances didn't attract all that many voters. "[T]he most memorable image of Reno's campaign has morphed from a video clip of the candidate tumbling to the floor during a fainting spell on a Rochester, N.Y., stage into the quirky lady with a straw hat who is fit enough to walk the two-mile length of the Plant City Strawberry Festival Parade and barrel down Interstate 10 at 70 mph." ( http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/2840291.htm)

South Dakota

Rep. John Thune opened an advertising salvo about clean ads in his race against Senator Tim Johnson (D) after negotiations between the two campaigns to request a ban on all third-party ads fell apart late last week. Thune's new ad urges Johnson to sign the pledge.

The ad reads: "I've asked Tim Johnson to join me in keeping the special interests out of this campaign. He still refuses. I will set the record straight against any attempt to distort my work for South Dakota. I've fought for lower taxes, better schools, protecting our seniors and a better deal for our farmers. That's the campaign you want and deserve." ( http://www.argusleader.com/news/Tuesdayarticle5.shtml )

There are a few dynamics in play here. For one thing, it's not entirely clear why negotiations broke down — and certainly, it's not all Johnson's fault. But Thune, as a Republican, might be able to exploit a hard-money advantage if only he and Johnson run ads, and spots from third-party groups — from pro-family coalitions within South Dakota to the Club for Growth to the Sierra Club — would level the field. (Someone get that communications director some OFF!, please.)

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Through the magic of videotape, Tom Ridge appeared simultaneously on all three network morning shows today.

George Melloan uses his The Wall Street Journal column to rail against the steel decision, making the not-so-original point that the president "seriously damaged his credibility" by "descending into the special-interest pits."

A The Wall Street Journal editorial warns the White House and Senate Republicans that they'd better "wake up and smell the cordite" ( http://www.dictionary.com/search?q=cordite) regarding the Democrats' tactics on the Pickering nomination.

Too little, too late, maybe, but the Log Cabin Republicans have endorsed Pickering for the federal appellate court. LCR executive director Rich Tafel spoke with Pickering and received assurances that he'd treat gay and lesbian defendants fairly. An LCR press release cites several Pickering opinions in which he exhorts the jury to treat gays as human beings, deserving of the same rights as everyone else.

Every major paper today reports that the administration want to temporarily end the habitat protections "for 19 populations of salmon and steelhead in four Western states, which could open the areas to greater development. In a proposed settlement entered in federal court yesterday, the National Marine Fisheries Service said it would eliminate and then revise the protections to settle lawsuits filed by the Association of California Water Agencies, National Association of Home Builders and 16 other groups of developers and local governments … [T]he fish still will be protected under the Endangered Species Act while the habitat provisions are reworked. That process could take about two years." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11128-2002Mar11.html )

D'oh. The Washington Post got hold of a previously undisclosed Army surgeon general threat assessment in case of a terrorist attack on a chemical plant, which they use as a peg to note how "Yesterday, the Natural Resources Defense Council … filed a lawsuit in federal court charging that the Justice Department has failed to submit a report to Congress on U.S. chemical plants' vulnerability to terrorist attacks, as required by an amendment to the Clean Air Act. The Justice Department missed an August 2000 deadline for filing an interim report, and Bush administration officials have notified Congress that they will not meet an Aug. 5 deadline for the final report because of inadequate funding … A Justice Department spokesman said yesterday that officials have not seen the suit and were withholding comment." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10616-2002Mar11.html )

"Governing is a family matter" for this Administration, the Washington Post 's Milbank observes, as he updates his earlier story about love amongst the Bushies by reeling off quite a lengthy list of relatives and spouses on the payroll for 43. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10476-2002Mar11.html )

Lloyd Grove isn't done trying to figure out if President Bush waved to Stevie Wonder at Ford's Theater. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10736-2002Mar11.html )

Enron

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. A Washington Post business section columnist looks at how the Vice President and other Administration officials profited from their sales of Enron stock back when they first took office. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11111-2002Mar11.html )