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A lot of the national political media, and all those running for office in 2002, know it as deadline day for filing their first-quarter campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission.

President Bush will observe both in his own political/policy way, by heading to Iowa to talk about making his tax cut permanent and to raise money for Rep. Greg Ganske, who is challenging Democratic Senator Tom Harkin.

But on the day planners sold at the Pennsylvania Avenue, SE Trover Shop, it's Congressional Budget Resolution Day — a day which is likely to come and go without the appearance of said resolution.

President Bush's trip will at least allow him to temporarily get away from the instability of the Middle East and the emerging charge, now becoming the dominant political pressure on his Administration, that they are using a double standard in pursuing the US war against terrorism abroad while suggesting that Israel should not pursue a military campaign against Palestinian suicide bombers.

This criticism is double-barreled, coming from both (partisan) Democrats (like aspiring Bush 2004 challengers Kerry and Lieberman) and pro-Israel conservatives like Bill Kristol.

We wonder if pro-Israel conservative Tom DeLay, the House Majority Whip, will choose to be critical this week on this front. Roll Call rounds up this and other recent causes of tension between the House GOP and the White House, offering some interesting blind quotes. ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0415b.html )

Even so, Democrats and others now criticizing the president for this double standard can't really explain what they would want US policy to be in conjunction with that, or how it would lead to peace.

Sort of like how Democrats are saying the White House and Republicans want to spend too much, but won't say where the cuts should be made.

On the budget resolution, House Republicans passed one earlier this year, but Senate Democrats have not, and are looking unlikely to — at least anytime soon.

The authors of this Note are dubious we'll ever see one at all. But before any visions of politically perilous government shutdowns start dancing in your head, you should know that our sources in both parties and at the White House continue to downplay this possibility.

The Los Angeles Times ' Hook writes, "Congress is about to fall down on its most basic job: writing a budget plan for the U.S. government."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la
-000026975apr15.story?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )

"The situation could put tremendous pressure on President Bush, whose veto may loom as the only strong check on spending. Bush told Republican leaders last week he was prepared to wield his authority for the sake of fiscal discipline."

"Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) has no immediate plans to bring the budget resolution to the floor, acknowledging that he does not have the votes to pass it. Republican leaders say none of their ranks will vote for the resolution, and some Democrats have said they cannot support it."

"Republicans have begun to lambaste Democrats for not passing a budget, saying it is evidence of their inability to do more than criticize the GOP."

The Washington Post reviews the White House's proposed budget as "the biggest increase in government spending since the 1960s' 'Great Society' … Spending on government programs will increase by 22 percent from 1999 to 2003 in inflation-adjusted dollars, according to the analysis by The Washington Post and vetted by budget experts in both parties." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48583-2002Apr14.html )

"Bush administration officials say that they tried to clamp down on spending — and intend to take a hard line in the future — but that now they are focusing on ensuring the safety of Americans."

The Washington Post 's Balz masterfully forges the fiscal with Florida in his must-read take on where things stand.

"The case the Democrats make is familiar: that Bush and the Republicans squandered the fiscal surpluses of the Clinton administration with a tax cut tilted to the wealthy; that they abandoned a bipartisan consensus on the environment going back years; that they violated the Social Security and Medicare trust funds after vowing not to; that they favor big corporations over the average American." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48224-2002Apr14.html )

"Democrats made many of those same accusations against Bush during the 2000 presidential campaign, but now there is an 'I told you so' quality to the party's critique."

"The Florida convention proved there is life in the Democratic Party despite Bush's hefty approval ratings — and that memories of 2000 remain vivid for the most partisan in the party. The next few months will demonstrate whether they have successfully moved the agenda their way."

On Tuesday, President Bush will meet with the president of Finland, then address a meeting of the leaders of the Fiscal Responsibility Coalition. Tuesday also is tax day in Maine and Massachusetts, and in states whose tax returns are filed through Andover, MA.

On Wednesday, Bush will meet with the Prime Minister of Lebanon.

Also on Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Lott will headline a fundraiser for New Hampshire Senate candidate and Rep. John Sununu, in Washington. And the Republican party state chairs will meet in New Orleans.

Thursday, Bush will meet with the president of Colombia and make remarks at the 2002 Environmental Youth Awards ceremony at the White House.

Any Friday presidential events remain TBD. Senator John Kerry will give a speech at Suffolk Law School in Boston, then keynote the Cape Cod Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner. And a two-day forum on political targeting and the Latino vote will kick off in Houston.

Saturday brings Senate Majority Leader Daschle's keynote speech at the South Dakota Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner, and Senator John Edwards' keynote speech at a Kentucky Democrats' fundraising dinner in Lexington, KY. Also, Senator Fred Thompson will fundraise for House candidate and Secretary of State Katherine Harris in Sarasota County, FLA.

The latest on the Middle East from the ABCNEWS London Bureau: Secretary of State Powell is in talks in Lebanon and Syria today, in hopes of calming tensions along Israel's troubled northern border. After meeting with Lebanese President Lahoud, Powell warned there is a real danger of the situation along the border exacerbating the conflict in the region. Thousands of Lebanese and Palestinians demonstrated on the airport highway as Powell arrived, burning American and Israeli flags and chanting, "Death to America. Death to Israel." After those talks, Powell flew to Damascus and a meeting with Syrian President Assad.

Powell is expected to return to Israel tonight to continue his efforts to achieve a Palestinian cease-fire and an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

Two Palestinians reportedly were killed when Israeli troops entered a village near Bethlehem, but elsewhere in the West Bank, there have been few reports of fighting. The Israeli army says they have detained over 4,400 Palestinians, including 133 wanted suspects since the incursion began.

Israeli military and International Committee of the Red Cross officials have begun a mission to remove bodies from the Jenin refugee camp. The bodies will be taken to Jenin hospital and handed over to families for burial. Palestinians claim the Israelis carried out a massacre in the camp, which is a closed military zone, and oppose their removal of the bodies. Israel says about 70 people were killed in the fighting, mostly gunmen. The Israeli army has warned that the handover of bodies may be suspended if Palestinians use them for propaganda purposes.

In Bethlehem, Israeli troops exchanged fire with Palestinians holed up in the Church of the Nativity as Israeli troops took over the Palace Hotel on Manger Square, which overlooks the church compound. Near the church, large clouds of white smoke, apparently released by Israeli tanks, were visible as troops fired stun grenades. Earlier today, Israeli troops demolished a bomb-making facility with a controlled explosion.

The Middle East

The Los Angeles Times ' Wright reports, "according to Israeli sources, Powell did not get a date from Sharon for an Israeli withdrawal … [A]t the end of the day, after rebuffs by both sides, a breakthrough in Powell's diplomatic rescue mission appeared as elusive as ever."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la
-000026944apr15.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dfrontpage )

Elizabeth Bumiller's White House Letter in the New York Times looks at the "Anything But Clinton" policies of 43, and the "Anything But Bush" policies of 42, largely through the sage prism of Dennis Ross, the Middle East peace negotiator for both administrations, who never saw any mountain high enough to keep him away from trying for peace. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/15/national/15LETT.html )

Bob Novak adds to the chorus of chorus-singers crooning over conservative complaints about the administration's Middle East policy, running negative comments by morals czar William Bennett past "senior aides" at the White House, resulting in a few loud gulps by the denizens of the West Wing. ( http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak15.html )

"Bennett represents gradual but accelerating escalation of support for Israel from the Republican Party's dominant conservative wing. When 46 years ago a Republican president in the midst of his re-election campaign took a tough stand against the Israeli attack on Egypt, Dwight D. Eisenhower did not have to worry about his party's base. Conservatives then tilted toward the Arabs. The move by the American right, overwhelmingly non-Jewish, toward Israel has intensified over the last 10 years."

"Some Israeli policies are more popular with Republican conservatives than others. The Oslo agreement and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's failed peace initiative are not. Sharon's Bismarckian policy of settling the Palestinian question with blood and iron are."

Weirdly, Novak doesn't mention that this new well of support comes not from Republican Party elites but from evangelical Christians (Catholic and Protestant), many of whom view Israel through eschatological lenses.* In their eyes, it's a moral good and religious obligation to support the Jewish state.

Florida Democratic Party Convention

The main thing you need to know: Gore came into Florida needing to give a really good speech to reclaim his status as the undisputed frontrunner, and he did.

Beyond that, there's plenty of convention(al) coverage of the Deeper Meaning of the Florida Democratic party's 2004 presidential cattle call this past weekend, so we'll restrict our coverage to the links for the major second-day stories and our own cutesy analysis-disguised-as-awards.

First, the links: Newsweek: ( http://www.msnbc.com/news/738477.asp )

USA Today : ( http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020415/4026782s.htm

The Hartford Courant: ( http://www.ctnow.com/news/politics/hc
-florida0415.artapr15.story?coll=hc%2Dheadlines%2Dpolitics )

The Boston Globe : ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/105/nation/Kerry_
Lieberman_double_up_on_Bush+.shtml )

The Miami Herald : ( http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/3064762.htm)

In case you didn't get to see any of Gore's speech on TV, you missed a certain moist visual that will stick with the guy, and in reporters' heads, for a long time. Here's the lead we liked from Sunday, courtesy of the Globe's Mr. Johnson: "Exhibiting a passion that some voters said he lacked in 2000, Al Gore yesterday sweated through his dress shirt as he rallied Florida Democrats with a speech chastising the Bush administration for its environmental and economic policies, as well as its political values."
( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/104/nation/Combative_Gore
_lashes_out_at_administration_policies+.shtml )

Now, our insider's guide:

Best courting of the open-minded national political press corps (O-MNPPC): Senator John Kerry, with his dinner with reporters and an intense and well-delivered speech to the delegates.

Second best courting of the O-MNPPC: Senator Joe Lieberman, with his cocktail reception for reporters.

Helped himself the most, outside game (sweat aside): Al Gore.

Helped himself the most, inside game: TBD — and maybe the most important answer of the weekend.

Most surprising cameo by a political operative: speechwriter Jonathan Prince for Senator John Edwards.

Most hovering presence by an operative: Craig "Chief" Smith for Lieberman.

Most stickers/signage/organized cheering effort: Gore (actually, the only one).

Best working of the Florida rank-and-file delegates in the hallway: Edwards.

Most surprising biographical details: Kerry.

Least deployed advantage: Gore's wireless mike.

Present spouses: Tipper Gore and Hadassah Lieberman.

Most grace under pressure: Gore operative Jano Cabrera.

Two loudest noises (in order of loudness): 1) the ovations for Gore; 2) the restaurant waterfall that effectively drowned out Kerry's press dinner.

Best collectible item in the delegates' registration/goody bags: gubernatorial candidate Janet Reno stealing Bill Clinton's 1991 idea and putting in fortune cookies with fortunes about her.

Most important Gore rhetorical adjustments from 2000: 1) a vigorous defense of the eight-year Clinton-Gore record; and 2) aggressive use of the environment as an issue, just like Dick Morris told him to do.

Best hints of trends to watch (aside from the fortune cookie one): 1) all the present '04 wannabes celebrating the prospects of a Speaker Gephardt and maintaining Majority Leader Daschle's status to lock those two down in Congress and keep them away from running for president; 2) all those candidates speaking after Gore lauding the Clinton-Gore Administration policies; and 3) all the other candidates ganging up on Gore.

Most blessed and overworked political reporter: the Hartford Courant's David Lightman, who had to cover home state Senators Dodd and Lieberman.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Just which ticket-mate's PAC will have shown itself to have had a better fundraising quarter, Gore's or Lieberman's?

Senator Joe Lieberman will address students of two historically black colleges today in Columbia, SC. His topic: reforming higher education.

We wonder if anyone from Al Gore's shop will remind the Globe's Johnson that the former Veep has pretty good Green credentials, after Johnson and Schlesinger write this today: "Among potential Democratic presidential candidates, Kerry and Lieberman have emerged as the favorites of environmentalists, a constituency important in Democratic primaries and an issue that will be crucial for Democratic hopes of beating Bush in 2004."
( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/105/nation/Kerry_Lieberman_double_up_on_Bush+.shtml )

The greenies we talk to were hoppin' with excitement over Gore's Florida address.

Meanwhile, Senator John Edwards will spend some time today criss-crossing his home state to outline his "economic revival plan" for North Carolina.

We confess we were in Florida this weekend and missed it, but a trusty New Hampshire source tells us that when the Concord Monitor ran EJ Dionne's column from last Friday in their Sunday paper, they tacked on a huge (our source's word) photo of Edwards, from his visit to the state earlier this year, with the caption: "John Edwards of North Carolina is one of two senators who's made an early impression on New Hampshire Democrats. The other is neighbor John Kerry."

Roll Call writes up Republican efforts to thunk Tom Daschle: "the GOP has deployed an inside-outside strategy designed to define Daschle's burgeoning national image as a partisan out to block President Bush's agenda in an effort to boost his own presidential ambitions. Inside the Beltway, Congressional Republicans have invented new terms — Daschle Democrats, Daschle Dysfunctional Democrats, Daschlecrats — to push to break the legislative logjam."
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0415a.html )

"[A] pair of top Democratic operatives who worked for Daschle and in the Clinton White House, Joel Johnson and John Podesta, have opened the 'Priorities Project,'" a 527 group. "The Priorities Project is not connected to Daschle or the Daschle Democrats, which is focusing all its efforts on defending him in South Dakota, and is instead trying to provide a national left-wing balance to groups like Club for Growth."

The Wall Street Journal ed board lines up with Hillary Clinton etal, against Tom Daschle/George W. Bush etal, on the ethanol fight.

Campaign Finance Legislation/Election Reform

As we mentioned above, midnight brings the filing deadline for quarterly campaign reports, a slew of leadership PACs, the national parties, and a host of connected groups. So be prepared for a trickle of "gotcha" stories from press hounds who are taking advantage of the Federal Election Commission's extended hours. ( http://www.fec.gov/press/20020410hours.html )

Perhaps to celebrate FEC filing deadline day, Roll Call looks at the campaign committees' drive to raise more hard money this cycle.

"The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will launch an unprecedented effort this week among its membership to raise money in order to ensure their top candidates and endangered incumbents are fully funded in November. Although no official figure was available, several sources familiar with the project said Democrats hope to raise several million dollars." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0415e.html )

"And over on the Senate side, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Bill Frist (Tenn.) is pushing his fellow Senate Republicans to kick in as much as $6 million in hard money to help the party recapture control of that chamber. Frist has already hit up the other elected Senate GOP leaders for $500,000 contributions, according to Republican sources, with a goal of raising $3 million."

"Jim Jordan, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC would also run its own hard-money program, although he declined to provide a specific goal."

Politics

Roll Call writes up a Democratic Garin-Hart-Yang poll of "more than 30 'swing' Congressional districts that showed while the American public remains supportive of President Bush's war on terrorism, it has begun questioning his domestic priorities. Party strategists hope the findings will provide the elusive 'blueprint' they have sought for winning the House back in November." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/politics/00/2002/04/pol0415b.html )

And yet, the Los Angeles Times ' Brownstein, mourning the Founding Fathers' intention that the House be the chamber of Congress most susceptible to political trends, writes, "Perversely, the House has become the arm of government that is now arguably the most insulated from shifts in the public mood. Throughout the 1990s, almost three-fourths of the 435 House seats never changed hands between the parties, calculates independent political analyst Rhodes Cook. The signs point toward even less turnover in the years ahead. Even this far from election day, it appears that only about four dozen House seats may generate plausible races this year. By this fall, experts on both sides expect the number of truly competitive contests to drop to as few as two dozen."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-000026969
apr15.column?
coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )

"That prospect has several implications, none of them healthy. First it means that absent some major unpredictable event--a recession, a big scandal--there won't be enough truly competitive seats to give either party more than a slim majority in the House … That will make governing tough. Governing will get even tougher as more House members represent seats so safe that they don't have to consider the views of voters outside their own base. That allows—indeed encourages--them to embrace purist ideological positions, which impedes compromise."

House Republicans are hoping to send Rudy Giuliani into lots of key districts this cycle to gun up money and free media, but Rudy so far seems more inclined to shun attention, thus putting kind of a damper on that free-media thing. Roll Call reports that Giuliani "flew to Dallas last week to raise money for Rep.Pete Sessions (R-Texas), but most people never heard about Giuliani's visit until it was over. At Giuliani's request, the Congressman did little to publicize the closed-door event … In a potentially troubling sign for Republican hopes, … sources said Giuliani would only agree to attend the $1,000-a-head luncheon if Sessions minimized publicity surrounding the event and banned media access to the conference room at the Westin Galleria in downtown Dallas." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/politics/00/2002/04/pol0415c.html )

Adam Clymer gets right on the front page of the New York Times with a solid overview of the good chance that women will make their best political gains in 2002 via the gubernatorial races, not the races for Congress. A clip-'n-save for those covering election night. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/15/politics/15WOME.html )

Drummond Ayres in the Times stopped by what used to be the political capital of the world, Little Rock, to status-check the key re-election effort of Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson, whose personal life has become an issue in the race, making it one of several Senate battles that could ultimately be affected by such things. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/14/politics/14ARK.html )

In case you missed it, here's Lois Romano's Sunday Washington Post on Clinton candidates:
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43005-2002Apr13.html )

Iowa

The AP's Lindlaw sets up Bush's trip today: "For his 16th fund-raiser of the year, Bush was heading to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to help collect campaign dollars for Rep. Greg Ganske, who is running for the GOP nomination to challenge Democratic Senator Tom Harkin in November. With Iowa's primary in June, it was the latest example of the White House involving itself in a campaign long before Republican voters select a nominee. Ganske faces a primary challenge from conservative activist Bill Salier."

"Bush's political operatives have sent word they aren't happy with Ganske's early campaign efforts, arguing Harkin is vulnerable and Ganske hasn't moved aggressively enough to confront him."

As Bush campaigns for Ganske today, the hard-charging "arch-conservative" primary opponent, Salier, somehow ensured that the Des Moines Register would cover him, too. Salier is touting, among other things, the fact that Ganske is responding to his charges, the quiet support of prominent national Republicans, and the not-so private support of the Club for Growth. ( http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/17908525.html )

California

There's a significant and pitched battle in the state over whether or not to unionize a swath of peripheral education services, like textbook modification, teacher training, and even teaching parents to help kids learn.

The teachers' union, obviously, is pushing Assembly Bill 2160, saying it would enable teachers to control all facets of learning. Opponents fear a union power grab.

Gov. Gray Davis (D), who has famously tepid relations with the state's biggest teachers' union, the CTA, won't sign the bill in its current form, but faces months of carping when and if he ultimately carries out his veto threat. ( http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/2178783p-2576146c.html )

The CTA claims 330,000 members. California is a heavily unionized state, and we'd pay attention to this bill were it only a harbinger for the future of collective bargaining efforts.

New Hampshire

The Boston Globe 's Johnson writes that the fiscal conservatism on which Republican Senator Bob Smith first campaigned seems to have gone out the window somewhat as Smith now tries to remind GOP primary voters, in his nomination battle against Rep. John Sununu, of all the pork he has brought home to the state. ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/105/nation/Pork
_critic_brings_home_bacon+.shtml )

Minnesota

Here's a take on what Minnesotans will get out of the farm bill, complete with a nifty-for-political-reporters summary of the farm demographic. ( http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/2230315.html )

Michigan

The Washington Times looks at how former House Democratic Whip David Bonior's pro-life stance is winning him over some Republican voters in Michigan's gubernatorial primaries. ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020415-78733372.htm )

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Bill Safire's hard pro-Israel leanings lead him to mock George Tenet, whose attempts to adapt the CIA to the war against terror also get a front-page Wall Street Journal treatment. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/15/opinion/15SAFI.html )

The Wall Street Journal also says that Army Secretary White is the subject of a federal insider trading investigation, related to Enron stock.

Andy Card tells Howie Kurtz that he and President Bush "frequently" discuss who would be the right Administration officials to put on the Sunday shows each week. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48339-2002Apr14.html )

"What's often lost in the endless elbowing over guests is the human dimension. While many in Washington would run over their grandmothers to get on television, Sunday duty can be a tough sell in the Bush White House."

"One reason some administration officials are reluctant Sunday warriors is the substantial preparation involved, led by Levine and press secretary Ari Fleischer."

The Washington Post reports, "President Bush, Vice President Cheney and the White House's top political adviser, Karl Rove, have each sought to convert the failed judicial nomination into a useful political theme, saying that Pickering's defeat illustrates why voters this fall should tip the Senate back into GOP control." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48279-2002Apr14.html )

"In recent days, the White House also has held strategy sessions with Senate Republicans and sympathetic interest groups, urging them to speak out earlier and more forcefully on behalf of the people Bush has named as judges — in an attempt to counteract opposition from liberal organizations and Senate Democrats."

"As part of that strategy, … the White House 'wants to talk with citizenry around the country,' encouraging voters to convey their support for Bush's nominees to their senators. White House officials also are considering assigning someone to work full time in the counsel's office to coordinate efforts to win judicial confirmations."

Legislative Agenda

The Wall Street Journal looks at the likelihood that ANWR won't pass the Senate, saying, "The intensity of the battle dramatizes as much as anything just how vulnerable Mr. Bush's domestic agenda remains, despite his stratopheric popularity."

Note in this story Commerce Secretary Evans' hands-off approach to the ANWR-steel-legacy-costs proposed deal (and his attitude toward legacy costs generally), and the hostility to the deal in some GOP congressional quarters.

*( http://www.dictionary.com/search?q=eschatology )

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