April 25, 2002
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The Note
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The New York Times As Saudi Bulleti Board.
Check Out Our Political Daybook.

By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner
& Marc Ambinder

ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N, April 25 —At this writing, we aren't scheduled to see President Bush and Crown Prince Adbullah together at any point today—or even Bush solo. As the White House pool report noted yesterday, no joint press conference is planned, although we may get a Bush statement after the Crown Prince leaves.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
| ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary | ABC 2002: Politics | Bush Administration Strategy/Personality



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There isn't even a planned White House briefing, in DC or in Crawford.

Which, given what the New York Times has to say about the meeting this morning, isn't surprising.

We can tell you one thing about George W. Bush: he doesn't take kindly to being threatened.

And we think he just might view Pat Tyler's Times front-pager, however understated, as a threat: "Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is expected to tell President Bush in stark terms at their meeting on Thursday that the strategic relationship between their two countries will be threatened if Mr. Bush does not moderate his support for Israel's military policies, a person familiar with the Saudi's thinking said today." ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/25/international/middleeast/25SAUD.html )

"In a bleak assessment, he said there was talk within the Saudi royal family and in Arab capitals of using the 'oil weapon' against the United States, and demanding that the United States leave strategic military bases in the region."

"Such measures, he said, would be a 'strategic debacle for the United States.'"

"He also warned of a general drift by Arab leaders toward the radical politics that have been building in the Arab street."

"The Saudi message contained undeniable brinkmanship intended to put pressure on Mr. Bush to take a much larger political gamble by imposing a peace settlement on Israelis and Palestinians.."

"[T]he person close to the prince said that if the summit talks went badly, Abdullah might not complete his stay in Texas. Instead, he might return directly to Riyadh and call for a summit meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, to report to its 44 leaders, who represent 1.2 billion Muslims."

With some Pataki-style coat-holding, the New York Times editorial page backs up the president, basically warning Abdullah not to threaten 43.
( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/25/opinion/_25THU2.html )

Deborah Orin uses her own typically understated style to set up the meeting: "Today's huddle between President Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah at the president's Texas ranch shapes up as a real test of guts …"
( http://www.nypost.com/commentary/46506.htm )

"[I]t will be a fundamental test of Bush's belief that he can convince 'moderate' Arab states, as well as Israel and the Palestinians, to do more for peace."

The Los Angeles Times ' Robin Wright previews the talks as "blunt and occasionally difficult." "The crown prince … will warn the Bush administration that its very reputation is being questioned in the region because the U.S. president's April 4 call for Israel to completely withdraw from reoccupied Palestinian territory in the West Bank has been ignored, Saudi sources said."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la
-000029435apr25.story?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )

USA Today 's Keen and Slavin add that "Bush also plans to discuss ousting Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein." "Today Bush gives [the crown prince] a tour of the ranch in Crawford, but Abdullah decided not to spend the night. White House buzz is that hotels in nearby Waco couldn't accommodate his large entourage in the luxurious style to which they are accustomed."
( http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020425/4058440s.htm )

(Insert clunky transition here … )

Meanwhile, back here at home, the national papers cover Bush's trip to South Dakota yesterday as Bush v. Daschle, all of them noting how Daschle almost didn't show, but no one covers it with the relish with which the trip/bout was previewed in the days leading up to it.

Alison Mitchell has a lovely, "ain't we all been there" item in her New York Times account: "Mr. Bush began in the grain building at the Dakota Ethanol plant, where a powerful wind swept grit through the doors, onto laptop computers and roast beef sandwiches." ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/25/politics/25BUSH.html )

The Washington Post adds, "There was also the matter of a closed-door round-table discussion of the farm bill, the trade bill and other points of disagreement between the White House and Senate Democrats. Daschle's people, and Johnson's people, heard rumors that Thune would be included in that event, while the Democrats were not. Again, staffers griped to the White House." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44342-2002Apr24.html )

"'We asked why we weren't invited to that if Thune was invited,' [Johnson spokesperson Dan] Pfeiffer explained. 'But then the White House said Thune would not be in the round-table.'"

Ever since Candidate Bush used a ballroom in the Des Moines Marriott* to declare his principled support for ethanol, his position on this important matter of state has not been in dispute.

And if you thought the POTUS voyage to South Dakota yesterday was about this important and principled policy position, think again.

Simply put, the president gave the game away.

Ethanol, shmethanol.

"First, I'm here because I firmly believe that John Thune should be the next United States senator from South Dakota," Bush told a crowd of about 7,000 people during a state Republican party rally at the Sioux Falls Arena." That's from the Aberdeen News.
( http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/aberdeennews/3135242.htm )

Now, we expect folks like David Kranz, the Dean of South Dakota political reporters, to get the dynamics right, and he does: "Bush Touts Thune, Corn and Country."
( http://www.argusleader.com/president/Thursdayfeature.shtml )

But we've been noticing a creeping tendency among other really, really local papers to treat the president's fundraising-cum-policy trips as fundraising-cum-policy trips, and not merely "Gleaming Presidential Motorcade Enlightens and Honors Our Small City."

We don't say that to mock anyone. Presidential visits ARE big stories, in and of themselves, particularly trips by popular wartime presidents to communities that don't usually get such visitors.

But now, the Beltway perception of Bush as Fundraiser-in-Chief has percolated through the elite-mass opinion divide and now rests comfortably in newsrooms across America.

Which is not the best news, from a White House communications director's point of view.

Consider these other local headlines: "Political Players Convivial at Bush's Ethanol Plant Stop" (Rapid City Journal), "Pres. Bush Endorses, Praises Thune For Campaign" (Tom's brother Chet Brokaw's local AP dispatch).

We bet White House pollsters who are paid through the Republican National Committee laugh at our local press analysis, and say that all that matters is those pictures on the local news and on the front pages, and those do have the desired effect of raising Mr. Bush's popularity levels around the country, with at least a bit of fairy dust falling off of his shoulders and onto the local GOP officeholders and -seekers.

Following quickly on the heels of the publication of yesterday's Note, certain Democrats accused us of being not cynical enough about the reasons for Karen Hughes' departure, and TOO cynical about the Democrats' big voter registration drive kick-off and fundraiser in New York yesterday.

Since we get mocked every time we write something that sounds the least bit un-cynical, we surely can take the heat, and hey, we aren't afraid of being part of changing the tone in Washington and politics, aspiring to live in a world in which one can say something nice or praising about someone else and not have it branded as "sucking up."

Ahem …

So, in the wake of the constructive comments, we half-mea culpa: while we were not insufficiently cynical, wethinks, about Ms. Hughes, we WERE overly cynical about the voter registration events.

Some GOP operatives might do the math and realize that the registration of new voters isn't in their party's best interests, but we think it is civically safe to say the more Americans who vote, the better off the nation is.

Up on Capitol Hill today, a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee will kick off its hearing on the Bush-desired nuclear waste depository at Nevada's Yucca Mountain.

"Senator Jesse Helms is scheduled to undergo open-heart surgery this morning for the second time in a decade to replace a prosthetic valve that was implanted nearly 10 years ago … The surgery this morning, in which doctors will install a new prosthetic mitral valve, will take place at Inova Fairfax Hospital in Northern Virginia, where a surgeon selected by Helms operates."
( http://www.news-observer.com/front/story/1325012p-1362090c.html )

From the ABCNEWS London Bureau: In Ramallah, a makeshift court inside Yasser Arafat's compound — where security officers acted as judges and lawyers — has convicted four Palestinians in last year's killing of Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Zeevi. The four were sentenced to jail terms ranging from one year to 18 years, and Arafat approved the sentences. It appears unlikely that Israel will accept the proceedings inside Arafat's compound as adequate.

Ms. Hughes, Day Two

David Sanger's New York Times "White House Memo" makes the big "winner" of the scheduled Hughes relocation (note that the Note is, for now, going to stop calling it a "departure") that young man with the sensibilities of an old(er) man, communications director Dan Bartlett, who admits in this gushing semi-profile that he plants "planned leaks" on new initiatives, and who unboastfully (because that's the way Dan does everything) reminds Gray Lady readers that he is "the longest continuously serving staff member to the president," having "signed on in the early days of Mr. Bush's first gubernatorial campaign in 1993 and … been with him ever since." ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/25/politics/25MEMO.html )

Michael Barone writes a muscular, perspective-drenched op-ed in The Wall Street Journal with these lovely bits: "The Bush campaign and White House have reflected George W. Bush, a man who likes to be on time, a man who hates yelling and can't abide ringing cell phones, a politician who hates people who leak to the press and hates aides who pursue their own agendas rather than his (which, it should be said, Messrs. Rove, Gerson and Card have not done). Karen Hughes has been his instrument in producing a White House which almost never leaks and in which, if there are raging feuds between insiders, they are invisible on the outside … "

"Roosevelt had Hopkins; John Kennedy had Robert Kennedy; Jimmy Carter had Hamilton Jordan; George W. Bush had Karen Hughes. Others have some of her skills, and the boss will still want things done his way. But without her, his White House and his administration will not reflect his character as faithfully as they have so far."

The Los Angeles Times editorializes on Hughes' relocation: "It's a tribute to Hughes that the buzz is not what she will do outside the White House but how the White House will cope without her."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la
-000029351apr25.story?coll=la%2Dnews%2Dcomment%2Deditorials )

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Roll Call 's Kane offers a nifty pair of stories on how the wannabes are plotting out the doling out and taking in of their leadership PAC money.

One of Kane's two is a round-up. "Kerry and Daschle both stated that they plan to give 65 percent of contributions from their committees to House and Senate races. The remainder will go toward helping candidates for governor, state legislature and local office. Gephardt's filing mapped out a plan to make an even 50-50 split between Congressional and local races."

"Edwards, however, has taken what one Democratic insider characterized as an 'extraordinarily aggressive' approach to nonfederal races. He plans to give 70 percent of his donations to candidates for state and local office, according to FEC forms."
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0425j.html )

"One Democratic strategist deemed it 'extraordinarily selfish' to focus so much money in the key presidential primary and caucus states when the Senate majority 'was hanging by a thread' and a House majority was within reach. 'Seventy percent of his donations are going to go to dog catchers in Iowa and county commissioners in South Carolina,' the strategist said, who requested anonymity." Any chance "anonymity" is hiding ties to another 2004 wannabe, we wonder?

"To be sure, other contenders have found ways to line the coffers of key players in those early primary states."

In his second story, Kane reports, "Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) has relied almost entirely on his trial lawyer friends to underwrite his ambitions. Edwards, a former trial lawyer, has raised $1.39 million for the federal and nonfederal accounts of his New American Optimists PAC since the first check arrived … Of that total, $1.19 million — 86 percent — came from lawyers, their employees or their family members, according to a Roll Call analysis. No other Congressional leader or potential presidential contender has such a heavy reliance on a single industry for their leadership PAC." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0425c.html )

"Edwards aides acknowledge that he will have to branch out into other groups for financial support to mount a national campaign. With the presidential primary schedule getting more and more compressed, Democratic presidential candidates will need to have raised virtually all of their money — upwards of $30 million or more — before the first caucus in Iowa in January 2004."

"Edwards believes that his increasingly-frequent trips to political hot spots around the nation will raise his profile and bring new backing, including financial supporters."

"GOP aides grumble that the biggest issue Edwards has tackled in his three-plus years in office was the patients' bill of rights, a debate in which he led the fight for Senate Democrats," Kane goes on to say. "Republicans contend that, if signed into law, the bill would amount to a giveaway to trial lawyers, who would gain new avenues to take legal action against managed-care companies."

Meanwhile, Roll Call 's Mercurio, in another story, looks at how Edwards "has strategically opted to sit out one of the most divisive, and diverse, Senate primaries [his] state has seen in years."
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/politics/00/2002/04/pol0425a.html )

Note this quote from African-American Senate candidate Dan Blue's campaign manager: "'Obviously, we'd like to have Senator Edwards' support. Dan has been very supportive of him in the past,' said Jill Harris, campaign manager for Blue, a fellow trial attorney who worked in the same Raleigh-based legal circles as Edwards and backed him early in his 1998 Senate primary. 'But that's the position someone running for president has to take. He doesn't want to offend any groups.'"

"Most party insiders said Edwards, while formally neutral, is most closely aligned with [Erskine] Bowles, who as White House chief of staff in 1998 helped organize President Bill Clinton's campaign appearance for him. Bowles and Edwards share several key advisers, most notably David Ginsberg," who "also worked as the director of policy and research for Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign."

In fact, we're told that Bowles, as citizen or Senator, has put himself in line to play a leading fundraising role for an Edwards presidential bid, if it happens, and we wonder what Al Gore thinks about that.

Assuming he runs, and there's certainly no evidence to suggest otherwise at this point, Edwards will face the big question of how to run for a liberal electorate's presidential nomination from a conservative state.

His apparent plan to play left, at least these days, may come back to haunt him in his home state as he seeks re-election in 2004 and/or runs for president, and if he were to become the Democratic party's presidential nominee, he potentially could face a god-awful situation if people in his own home state line up to denounce him — which of course would get notice throughout the rest of the South.

George Will thinks Al Gore did President Bush a favor with his Earth Day speech by reminding conservatives, right at a time when reasons for them to be unhappy with Bush were piling up (steel, campaign finance reform, etc.), that the country is narrowly split and Bush can't always cater to the right. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44670-2002Apr24.html )

On June 1, Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe is expected to address the New Hampshire Democrats' convention in Manchester. The big question (Jano?) is, will Tipper Gore, who will be in the state the day before, stick around and appear at the convention as well?

And on June 21, we hear that Senator Edwards will be in the state, on his second visit this year, for the Manchester Democrats' Flag Day Dinner.

The Boston Globe 's Johnson offers a status report on Boston's bid to host the 2004 Democratic convention. "Boston's bid for the 2004 Democratic National Convention faces serious competition from Detroit and Miami, located as they are in battleground states. A third competitor, New York City, has sentimental standing as the target of a Sept. 11 terrorist attack, while the remaining bidder, Baltimore, is considered a long shot even by its mayor."
( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/115/nation/Hub_4_rivals_buff
_their_Democratic_party_ware+.shtml )

"'One of the biggest criteria in the chairman's mind is how much money can the city put in,' said one DNC official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. Financing is a threshold question for party chairman Terry McAuliffe … Taking no chances, Boston and the other competitors are budgeting up to $50 million. None of the cities has been asked yet to back up their numbers, so the winner may end up being the one whose finances have the most credibility."

The fabled Bill Shipp says that Republican Senate candidate and Rep. Saxby Chambliss plans to make Democratic Senator Max Cleland's frequent votes with Tom Daschle an issue in the Peach State. No wonder the White House loves Mr. Chambliss.
( http://onlineathens.com/stories/042402/opi_20020424002.shtml )

And the dream will never die: we like to sneak Gray Davis into this section every now and again. At an event with Jesse Jackson yesterday, the San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci writes, Davis appears to have endorsed a hard look at some form of slavery reparations.
( http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/04/25/MN186211.dtl )

Jon Alter's first response when asked about which Democrats might run strongest against Bush in 2004 by Imus was to bring up John McCain running as a Democrat.

Politics

In writing up the Apollo Theatre gala last night, the Washington Post notes that the Democratic National Committee has another concert fundraiser planned for the MCI Arena in DC on October 8.
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44802-2002Apr25.html )

The New York Daily News reports that "tireless" Bill Clinton press secretary Julia Payne has told her boss that she will leave the job on August 1. The News item appears in Rush and Molloy, which is appropriate since Payne spends much of her time in the job dealing with such columns.
( http://www.nydailynews.com/today/News_and_Views/Daily_Dish/a-148790.asp )

A source so familiar with Payne's thinking that you'd almost think they were the same person confirms the move, and attributes her planned departure in part to an otherwise perfect New York's lack of Johnny Cash on Gotham radio.

And her planned recreational time in North Carolina's Outer Banks (lucky) should not be viewed as a sign that this former Gore aide is headed for the Gephardt campaign, which already has plenty of press sharpies. But her phone will surely ring off the hook with such calls; we do know of at least one fledgling campaign that's interested in finding spokespeople.

If the Note is nothing else, it is the Official Web Scorecard of CNN's "Inside Politics," a show for which the pre-emption level is a bit too low for our taste (but, apparently, not for Walter Isaacson's).

We love "IP," and grow oh-so-frustrated at just how prone the network is to carry the live "breaking news" utterances of just about anyone in the world in what seems like a purposeful effort to make the show as short as possible each day, after those nice people at the show work so hard to fill the hour.

Yesterday, the Vatican Rag reduced "IP" to all of 12 minutes, into which was stuffed two fascinating interviews. The first made Judy Woodruff the answer to this question: who is the last television journalist to have interviewed both Al Gore and Bill Clinton on camera?

Ms. Woodruff, whose underrated hustle got her an Al Gore interview in Orlando, went Andrea Mitchell-style along the rope line in the Village yesterday and got an extended chat with Bill Clinton.

We wonder which of these three aspects of the interview most warmed the heart of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director (and former Hillary Clinton spokesguy] Howard Wolfson to the temperature of a McDonald's Hot Apple Pie:
-- the FPOTUS's freaky-but-not-surprising familiarity with the status of ongoing House redistricting fights
-- the FPOTUS's bullish prediction of double-digit Democratic House gains, which would return control of the chamber to the Grand Young Party.
-- the fact that much of the interview was drowned out by the Springsteen political anthem "Born to Run"

Woodruff's second interview, with comedian Chris Tucker, was unintentionally funny, as Ms. Judy had to practically beg Tucker to explain that his motivation for participating in DNC voter registration efforts goes beyond his interest in researching his upcoming role as America's first black president and promoting the film project. Tucker also appears to be a not-particularly-partisan guy.

As for last night's Apollo fundraiser, at which Tucker was intentionally quite funny, all we can say is, the mood was upbeat, Chairman McAuliffe was in his element, and is it even possible to have an event at that fabled theater run on time?

The Washington Post has the Hollywood-heavy details on the resurrection of Harry and Louise in time for the Senate debate on human cloning. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44732-2002Apr24.html )

Rep. Tom Reynolds of New York is expected to win the chairmanship of the GOP House campaign committee for the 2004 cycle … ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0425b.html )

… while Rep. Steny Hoyer told Roll Call he has the votes to get elected House Democratic Whip.
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0425a.html )

The AP's Espo chronicles the two parties' fight over the slogan, "Securing America's Future (for All Our Families)." ( http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/3135525.htm )

Remember the Million Mom March? The assault weapons ban? The gun-show loophole?

Whatever happened to gun control?

Consider these discordant items:
-- The National Rifle Association, which gathers this weekend in Reno, NV for its annual convention, is politically ascendant. It spent a record amount in the 2000 election and plans to spend at least 25 percent more this cycle.
-- Since September 11, lots more people have bought guns.
-- But the percentage of Americans who favor gun control — phrased just like that in poll questions — still hovers around 60 percent.
-- And state initiatives to close "gun-show loopholes" have met with some success recently.
-- But many Senators don't want to vote on either of two gun-show loophole bills before November.

Click here for our take on the precariously balanced see-saw of gun control politics.

New York

If Rudy really buys this place, he can take a crosstown bus quite easily to appear on ABC News programs. Only the hard copy of the New York Post has the floor plan on page 7.
( http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/46457.htm )

The collective magic of "Every Vote Counts," Bill Clinton, and the Macker got Al Sharpton and the omnipresent Mark Green to shake hands yesterday.
( http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/46472.htm )

Florida

The state Democratic party is circulating a memo to the press outlining five reasons why Gov. Jeb Bush is vulnerable and why the gubernatorial race is really a toss-up. Some of the data-based arguments make sense, and of course they talk about education. But that doesn't mean Democrats will nominate an effective messenger.

A year after the Florida legislature passed broad election reforms, the US Justice Department has finally approved them. But in the meantime, the state changed some of those laws, and now Justice has to go back and re-approve them. At issue: the procedures for purging felons from a new, statewide voter database.
( http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/3131711.htm )

A day Dick Morris would love: Gov. Jeb Bush signed into law bills helping parents avoid shaken baby syndrome and promoting guide dogs.
( http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl
-locbills25042502apr25.story?coll=orl%2Dhome%2Dheadlines )

Minnesota

Gov. Jesse Ventura, who still hasn't indicated whether he will seek re-election, said yesterday that he is being wooed for a foreign trade mission to Africa.
( http://www.startribune.com/stories/1384/2253127.html )

California

In Silicon Valley yesterday, Bill Simon promised women he'd keep his gubernatorial self out of reproductive decisions, and promised entrepreneurs that he'd keep the government's bean-counters out of their pockets.
( http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/news/politics/3135092.htm)

New Hampshire

The Nashua Telegraph reports this morning that the New Hampshire Democratic party has hired common-law resident John Weaver, recently arrived Democrat and top adviser to Senator John McCain's 2000 presidential bid, to advise Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in her US Senate campaign. We wonder nearly aloud whether Weaver will get one of those retro 70's-style wood-paneled offices at the party's new Manch-Vegas set-up.

The Providian creep continues. Shaheen disputes allegations that her political ties with Providian Financial Corp. helped the company duck consumer protection authorities and won her daughter a job running a nonprofit organization bankrolled by the company.
( http://www.cmonitor.com/stories/front2002/042202providian2867_2002.shtml )

Alaska

Republican gubernatorial candidate and US Senate heavy Frank Murkowski, "with little fanfare," inserted "into the Senate's slow-moving energy bill" an amendment that would require the US government to "provide new incentives to companies to build a pipeline capable of transporting vast, unexploited reserves of natural gas from Alaska's Prudhoe Bay to major U.S. markets."
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44099-2002Apr24.html )

Campaign Finance

Continuing to provide its excellent blow-by-blow tracking of the legal prospects of McCain-Feingold, Roll Call reports, "A panel of three federal judges yesterday formally laid out a schedule for considering legal challenges to the newly enacted campaign finance reform law, culminating in oral arguments … in early December. The three-judge panel also said it would consolidate several complaints already filed into one lawsuit, with Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the lead plaintiff."
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0425e.html )

And the Washington Times Z. Hallow reports that the law "is about to draw a bipartisan challenge from California," where "Officials in both parties confirmed that the state Republican and Democratic organizations will jointly challenge the constitutionality of provisions in the new law they say will cripple voter-registration efforts by state parties four months before primary and general elections and will bar national parties from transferring contributions to state parties."
( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020425-32563240.htm

Legislative Agenda

Often, the contours of the parties' legislative fights are shaped by, egads, election year positioning. Democrats once thought they could cause some Republicans pain by making them cast tough Enron-derived votes, on which Republicans would be forced to choose between protecting their corporate allies and being seen as (or, actually) protecting consumer, worker, and shareholder interests.

Yesterday's overwhelming House vote in favor of a Republican bill on accounting measures suggests that the Rove-Blount-generated two-step probably will work for the balance of the year in shielding GOP candidates.

First step: pass SOMETHING that members can proudly say they voted for, even if it doesn't go as far as some critics would like.

Second step: watch with some confidence as the measure dies in the Senate. (Let's see how hard the administration fights to get any of this stuff out of conference and signed into law. We predict it's more likely that they simply add it to their "do nothing Senate" litany.)

And, the The Wall Street Journal points out that many House Democrats are providing the necessary votes to keep anyone from casting the chamber's handiwork as "pro-corporate" or insufficient. Passing the House by a 334-90, "[e]lection-year politics likely influenced House Democrats' decision to support a less-activist bill, rather than have no reform legislation."

Glenn Simpson's "Archer-Daniels-Midland truth is stranger than fiction" saga about how ADM uses European wine to make ethanol on A4 of the The Wall Street Journal is worth a look to satisfy your Inner Investigative Reporter for this news cycle.

The Des Moines Register says that Bush's ethanol comments yesterday "did little to resolve the stalemate" in Congress over the farm bill. ( http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/18013020.html )

"Some lawmakers had hoped the president would take a position on some of the more controversial elements of the farm bill debate, such as a proposed ban on packer ownership of livestock and lower limits on individual farm subsidies."

The Senate today will likely approve a bill to triple the amount of ethanol produced. But there is no — and we mean no — chance that this will survive a conference committee unmodified.
( http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/04/25/MN204974.dtl )

Come Monday, the Washington Post 's Milbank reports, President Bush is expected to endorse legislation on which he's close to cutting a deal, which would force "employers to expand insurance coverage for psychiatric illnesses, a position urged by mental health advocates but one that has been opposed by business groups and several key Republicans."
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44195-2002Apr24.html )

"Those familiar with the status of negotiations, which continued yesterday, cautioned that there may not be agreement by Monday on all details of the legislation, known as 'mental health parity.' But they said Bush supports the idea and is likely to sign legislation this year."

"The main opposition has come from key GOP lawmakers in the House, who object to the higher cost the requirement would impose on employers. The White House would need to persuade House conservatives to endorse the idea, which has long had strong backing from Democrats. As wife of the vice president, Tipper Gore made it her signature issue, and Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) has said he hopes to have a vote on the legislation soon."

A Senate committee approved ENDA — the Employment Non Discrimination Act, geared toward gays — yesterday. Senate Democrats, or some of them anyway, want Tom Daschle to bring the measure to a vote by the end of the year, though as late as possible, to avoid conflicting with election year messages.

If ENDA passes the Senate, and the Human Rights Campaign and the New York Times say it might, it'll face a tougher challenge in the House, which is where, incidentally, gay rights groups have been directing their lobbying efforts.

If ENDA passes both chambers, we have no idea, honestly, what the White House will do.

Maybe someone should ask Mr. Fleischer, the subject of a cartoon by VH1's Jake Tapper today that leverages off the vast popularity of a certain ABC show, about this … ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/cartoons/toons/tapper_020425.html )

Or maybe, just maybe, someone should ask Vice President Cheney what HE thinks about it.

There are some interesting arguments proffered for and against. The pro-Bush Administration Log Cabin Republicans are leaning toward the view that ENDA isn't necessary in these tolerant times; HRC responds that many big businesses and 13 states have ENDA-type laws and the amount of litigation so far has been minimal. Others, obviously, don't want the government to promote homosexuality.
( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020425-983516.htm )

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Bob Novak makes a US war with Iraq sound imminent: "The signal has spread through the Pentagon: on to Baghdad to get rid of Saddam Hussein, probably in September when the weather should be fine and the U.S. high-tech arsenal will be replenished. That's what Defense Department policymakers plan, but their cheers are balanced by apprehension among civilian and military career officials." Some of them apparently are crossing their fingers for Powell to exert control over the situation.
( http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak25.html )

Army Secretary White gave an interview to the Los Angeles Times , saying "he regrets missing the deadlines to divest his Enron Corp. stock holdings," whle continuing to insist that all his Enron problems are not interfering with his job performance.
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la
-000029452apr25.story?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )

Bill Safire celebrates the Ghost of Kay Graham's salon, basically outs Powell and Rumsfeld as social sources, and then cleverly quotes speeches from their aides to shed some light. In this Administration, the State and DOD camps reflect the basic institutional worldviews that those departments always hold, but, as Safire suggests, what IS notable about BushWorld is that the two Secretaries actually like and respect each other. Must reading in the foreign policy bureaucracy, and at the highest levels. Does Dr. Rice EVER get bad press?
( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/25/opinion/25SAFI.html )

There are 2,403 words in The Wall Street Journal 's front-pager on how retiree legacy costs are hampering the consolidation of the US steel industry, and only one of them is "Bush," basically leaving the administration out of the problem.

President Bush is tentatively scheduled to visit South Central Los Angeles Monday, and may make a stop to the First African Methodist Episcopal church, a reverend there said, no doubt making Secret Service advance agents grit their teeth and roll their eyes behind those shades.
( http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/2367170p-2808831c.html )

Al Hunt bemoans the apparent loss of world support for a lot of the Bush Administration's international positions. The column contains some apparent criticism of 43's handiwork by 41's co-author and National Security Council Big Brent Scowcroft. This paragraph is sure to intrigue the still-simmering right-left anti-Saudi regime coalition that exists in Congress and the punditocracy:

"[S]ome top administration officials privately raise legitimate questions about the lack of democratic values in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other 'moderate' Arab states. Every so often there is talk of applying some pressure to force these countries to modify some of their extreme behavior."

As foreshadowed here yesterday, Mark McKinnon, who we hope is called "Bill" by his Austin office colleagues for at least awhile, gets his New York Times correction. ( http://www.nytimes.com/corrections.html )

Media

The Washington Times offers details on the White House Correspondents' Dinner — Karen Hughes, First Lady Laura Bush, Andy Card, Karl Rove, and Mary Matalin — and releases its own guest list, which includes HUD Secretary Martinez, the NRA's Wayne LaPierre, Grover Norquist, and Brooks Robinson.
( http://www.washtimes.com/national/inbeltway.htm )

*Dispenser of more quadrennial Marriott Points to District of Columbia residents than any other hotelier in America.

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The Political Daybook

-- 9:30 am, Senate meets to complete action on the energy bill
-- 10:00 am, House meets to consider the INS reform bill
-- 10:00 am, Doug Bailey, Mike McCurry, and business leaders announce "the largest non-partisan voter turnout campaign in America's history," National Press Club
-- 10:00 am, Attorney General Ashcroft holds news conference on INS reform
-- 12:15 pm, Crown Prince Abdullah arrives at the Crawford ranch for closed working lunch
-- 12:30 pm, State Department briefing

-- April 26: Rep. J.C. Watts speaks as part of Landon Lecture Series, Kansas State University,
-- April 26: Sen. Edward Kennedy delivers Martin Buskin lecture, DC
-- April 26-28: National Rifle Association annual meeting, Reno
-- April 26-28: Democratic Leadership Council retreat, New Orleans
-- April 29: Sen. John Kerry addresses Connecticut Democratic caucus, CT
-- April 30: National Right To Life annual "Proudly Pro-Life" Dinner, DC
-- May 1: Vice President Hu Jintao of China meets with Vice President Cheney
-- May 2: President Bush hosts U.S.-E.U. Summit, DC
-- May 3: Sen. John Kerry keynotes South Carolina Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Columbia, SC
-- May 4: Sen. John Edwards addresses South Carolina Democratic convention, Columbia, SC, and addresses Michigan Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner
-- May 3: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Massachusetts Gay and Lesbian Bar Association Dinner, Cambridge, MA
-- May 3-4: Jose Maria Aznar, President of Spain, visits Washington.
-- May 3-5: Former Vice President Gore and Tipper Gore appear at BookExpo America to tout their forthcoming book, Jacob Javits Center, New York
-- May 4: New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial candidates forum, St. Paul's School, Concord, NH
-- May 4: Kentucky Derby, with politicians galore in attendance
-- May 4: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Empire State Pride Agenda annual dinner, New York
-- May 4: White House Correspondents' Dinner, headlined by comedian Drew Carey.
-- May 4: American Trial Lawyers' Association Board of Governors Meeting, Annapolis, MD.
-- May 5: AFL-CIO meeting, New York
-- May 5: Sen. John Edwards addresses Michigan Democrats, MI
-- May 6: first New Hampshire gubernatorial debate, both parties, Mount Washington Hotel
-- May 9: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean speaks at DNC Gay and Lesbian Leadership Council Chairman's Dinner
-- May 10: Bill Clinton appears at Natural Resources Defense Council fundraiser with Steve Martin and more, Los Angeles
-- May 10: Mary Matalin headlines Iowa GOP fundraising dinner
-- May 11: New Hampshire Democratic gubernatorial candidates forum, St. Paul's School, Concord, NH
-- May 11: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean keynotes Wyoming Democratic party convention, Rock Springs, WY
-- May 13:Vermont Gov. Howard Dean raises money for Rep. Jim Maloney, Southbury, CT
-- May 13: North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stumps at Galivants Ferry Stump Meeting, SC.
-- May 14: Bill Bradley campaigns for NH gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald, Londonderry, NH
-- May 16: Vice President Dick Cheney headlines GOP fundraiser, NYC
-- May 16: former President and Nancy Reagan to receive the Congressional Gold Medal (Mrs.Reagan to accept), DC
-- May 17: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean speaks to Gill Foundation Outgiving Conference, San Francisco
-- May 19: Al and Tipper Gore's 32nd wedding anniversary
-- May 20: Florida Democrats Jefferson-Jackson dinner, speaker TBD
-- May 21: Pennsylvania primary (Democratic primary for governor)
-- May 22-23: New York Democratic party convention, Sheraton New York, NYC
-- May 22-23: President and Mrs. Bush visit Berlin
--May 22: AFL-CIO members expected to ratify increased dues levy for political purposes, New York, NY
-- May 22: Democratic National Convention site selection committee meets to decide on possible sites and a site visit schedule, DC
-- May 23-25: President and Mrs. Bush visit Moscow
-- May 24: signature deadline for some California ballot initiatives
-- May 25: signature deadline for Oregon ballot initiatives
-- May 27--30: U.S. Senate/U.S. House not in session
-- May 27: Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd's birthday
-- May 28: South Dakota pre-primary financial disclosure forms due
-- May 28-29: New York GOP Convention (Gov. George Pataki's formal renomination)
-- June 1: New Hampshire Democratic Party State Convention
-- June 1: Massachusetts Democratic Party State Convention
-- July 1-5: U.S. Senate/U.S. House not in session
-- June 4: Iowa Primary
-- June 4: South Dakota Primary
-- June 7: President Rudolf Schuster of the Slovak Republic visits Washington
-- June 7: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean gives commencement speech at University of Michigan medical school
-- June 8: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean gives commencement speech at Dartmouth medical school, NH
-- June 10: North Carolina Senator John Edwards' birthday.
-- June 13-15: Texas Democratic party convention, El Paso
-- June 27: Rep. Jim Traficant's sentencing scheduled to take place
-- June 23-25: Election Law Summit, Washington, D.C.
-- June 27-30: Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Charlotte
-- July 4: WMUR Statehouse reporter Scott Spradling to wed.
-- July 5: last day for Washington state ballot measures to be presented
-- July 6: President Bush's birthday.
-- July 9-12: Northwest Regional Election Conference, Portland, Oregon
-- July 13: Sen. Joe Lieberman keynotes Louisiana Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner
-- July 15: New York periodic disclosure forms due
-- July 20-24: American Trial Lawyers Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta
-- July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
-- Aug. 6: Michigan primary (Democratic primary for governor)
-- Aug. 7: last day for Ohio ballot measures to be presented
-- Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday.
-- Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday.
-- Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday. -- Aug. 20: Georgia primaries
-- Aug 26: Jury selection begins in John Walker Lindh trial
-- Sept. 10: Florida, New Hampshire, and New York primaries (Florida: Democratic primary for governor; New Hampshire: Republican primary for Senate and primaries on both sides for governor; New York: Democratic primary for governor)
-- Sept. 17: Massachusetts primary (Democratic primary for governor)
-- Sept. 30: Jury selection begins for trial of Zacarias Moussaoui
-- Oct. 4: Al Sharpton's birthday.
-- Oct. 15 (tentative): Zacarias Moussaoui trial begins
-- October 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday
-- Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
-- Nov. 5: Election Day
-- November 17: Vermont Governor Howard Dean's birthday.
-- November 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
-- December 9: South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle's birthday
-- December 11: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's birthday
-- Decmeber 13: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's birthday
-- December 26: California Governor. Gray Davis's birthday
-- January 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday
-- January 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday
-- February 24, 2003: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman's birthday
-- March 11, 2003: Georgia Governor Roy Barnes's birthday
-- March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday

 
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