W A S H I N G T O N, December 10
A brawl between Democrats and the George W. Bush GOP over the deficit has been looming since the first year of this Administration.
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For you new(er) readers, The Note calls that fight, and all its attendant political implications, "Big Casino."
But now the administration has tapped two new lead economic spokesmen assuming both survive the public vetting process and Mr. Snow gets confirmed by the Senate who have long histories as deficit hawks.
These guys can't come in and single-handedly solve the deficit problem, of course, but based on their past statements and positions, they certainly seem to bear some allegiance to the fundamentals of Rubinomics, defined thusly by the Wall Street Journal this morning: "A reduction in deficits would reassure markets, ease interest rates and boost economic growth."
Or, as the same Journal story quotes former CSX chairman Snow writing once upon a time, far, far away: "'A credible, sustained reduction in federal deficits, leading to a balanced budget, will bring major economic benefits,' Mr. Snow wrote in a 1995 editorial for the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia."
Presumably, once they begin to speak for the administration, Mr. Snow and Mr. Friedman's public positions will be to emphasize tax cuts over controlling the deficit in the short term. To do otherwise would put them terribly off-message. And they are getting these new jobs, at least in part, because the previous team couldn't stay on message.
In his The Wall Street Journal column, TV guy Alan Murray hits this exact nail on the head, in looking at the Big Casino challenges facing the new team:
"When it comes to boosting long-term growth, Messrs. Snow and Friedman will have to take sides in the economic debate that splits the Republican Party: They'll have to choose between the Steve Forbes supply-side view, which sees tax cuts as the surest way to promote economic growth, regardless of their short-term effect on the government's finances, and the Robert Rubin deficit-hawk view, which holds that a balanced budget promotes long-term growth by keeping government borrowing down, and leaving more capital for private investment. Messrs. Snow and Friedman are from the bond-market wing of the party. But they are inheriting a tax-cut agenda forged in the supply-side wing. It won't be easy to square the circle."
Pushing off last week's Voinovich-generated CBO deficit numbers, Murray highlights the alternative minimum tax and prescription drug problems, and sees the solution in economic growth (easier said than done) and entitlement reform (politically perilous, as he himself points out).
The Journal ed board reads the tea leaves of the Snow and Friedman histories, and cleverly and subtly throws down the gauntlet with a pull quote that only insiders could love (or, probably, understand): "The Kemp tax commission si!; The Business Roundtable no."
If you don't get the shorthand, consider the editorial a must-read education for you on the two wings of GOP economic and fiscal thought.
So going forward, the two Big Questions are: 1) do the arrivals of Snow and Friedman mean they will quietly and internally push for figuring out a way, even at the expense of tax-cutting, to close the deficit, which strikes us as unlikely; and 2) probably more likely, does it give Democrats a rhetorical and intellectual wedge to push for lowering the deficit ahead of more tax cuts and do political damage to the president in the process?
Tad Devine sounds very muscular in the Wall Street Journal today: "As the public begins to focus on deficits, Democrats believe, their party could have a big political opening. 'Democratic candidates can talk about the deficit in moral terms how they represent a burdening of our children and a failure to live up to our responsibility,' says Democratic strategist Tad Devine. 'We want opportunities to put Republicans on the defensive in terms of right and wrong.'"
The Journal's Davis and Cummings use A4 to get all nostalgic for the pre-September 11 days, when the Bush Administration's push for tax cuts (unaccompanied by any apparent attempt to seriously reduce the size of the federal government and coupled with expenses health, national security, education, alternate minimum tax, and Social Security personal savings accounts transition cost promises) seemed to consign the nation to deficits for at least awhile.
Until, of course, whether dynamically scored or not, those tax cuts led to booming economic growth, and thus gushing federal revenue.
While some conservative voices in the Journal story worry that Snow and Friedman will show more zeal for budget-balancing than for tax cuts, the greater concern, again, could be that Democrats just might finally have a wedge to divide the other side from the American people on Big Casino.
But the Bush family has a long history of being able to put Democrats on the defensive on these issues.
And, we hate to keep repeating ourselves, but Democrats currently don't seem to be in shape to exactly pounce here, as their internal struggles get played out all over the place this morning.
Janet Hook's lead in the Los Angeles Times sums it up nicely: "Democrats are gleefully seizing on the White House shake-up of economic advisers as evidence that its policy has failed, but they are also acknowledging another bracing reality: They don't have a coherent economic policy of their own."
LINK
"A shaky consensus among Democrats is emerging around a few broad notions. Support is building for a short-term economic stimulus package of tax cuts and unemployment benefits, and a growing number of Democrats have been emboldened to challenge parts of Bush's 2001 tax cut at least for upper-income taxpayers."
"But the opposition party is still speaking in a jumble of voices: potential presidential candidates trying to break out of the pack; governors struggling to balance their own budgets; cautious congressional leaders struggling to straddle party divisions; balky rank-and-file lawmakers fuming at the party's clumsy handling of economic issues during the 2002 campaign."
The Democratic governors gathered in DC yesterday and amounted to another echo chamber: "Gov.-elect Bill Richardson of New Mexico called his fellow governors 'the bright light' on Election Day and said one reason the party lost House and Senate seats was because 'we didn't have an economic message' during the midterm elections. 'These Democratic governors in their states did.'"
LINK
"In meetings with Senate Democratic leader Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and Democratic National Committee Chairman Terence McAuliffe, the governors presented a wish list to boost their influence within the party. Their list includes a seat at the table in the development of a Democratic economic plan to counter President Bush's pending economic stimulus package, more seats on the national committee and assurances that governors will be included more regularly in the delivery of Democratic responses to Bush."
"Pelosi, emerging after a closed-door meeting with House Democrats, agreed that the party had failed to deliver an economic message this fall."
The New York Times ' Nagourney looks at the chest-thumping at the DGA meeting. LINK
"Democratic governors will now get one of every three radio responses to President Bush's weekly radio address," says the AP's Lester.
LINK
"One of them will deliver the Democratic response to President Bush's State of the Union Address in January, a job usually reserved for a member of Congress," says USA Today 's Lawrence.
LINK
(We wonder if all this gubernatorial pandering and perk-bestowing was cleared by all the Democratic congressional leaders in both chambers )
"Gov.-elect Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania says Democrats 'should have disagreed more strongly' with Bush's economic policies. He is helping formulate an economic stimulus plan that combines spending and tax cuts he says are aimed more narrowly at job creation than Bush's expected proposals."
House Democrats will continue their economic forum today. "During today's session , Democrats will hear about budget challenges facing the new Congress in the areas of taxes, Social Security and the deficit, get a briefing on the new campaign-finance laws and review a post-election analysis."
LINK
The other political storyline still unspooling out there today is Trent Lott's third attempt to explain away his remarks last week at Strom Thurmond's birthday party, and whether the third time will prove to be the charm.
The C-SPAN's call-in question as we went to press was shockingly on-point: should Senator Lott's statement end the story?
Lott last night apologized "for implying the country would have been better off had Strom Thurmond, R-S.C., won the presidency when he ran in 1948 on a segregationist ticket."
LINK
"'A poor choice of words conveyed to some the impression that I embraced the discarded policies of the past,' Lott said in a statement issued Monday night. 'Nothing could be further from the truth, and I apologize to anyone who was offended by my statement.'"
"Lott's statement came 'out of personal concern for the misunderstanding,' his spokesman, Ron Bonjean, said" on more than one cyber occasion.
Earlier in the day yesterday, Senate Democratic Leader Daschle had said, "Senator Lott, in my conversation with him this morning, explained that that wasn't how he meant them to be interpreted. I accept that. And I'd there are a lot of times when he and I go the microphone and would like to say things we meant to say differently, and I'm sure this was one of those cases for him, as well."
Daschle's position seems to have been at odds not only with some members of his own party, but also with some Republicans. There was plenty of GOP breast-beating on this matter yesterday.
Lott put out three statements on this over two days. His third one, last night, came too late to head off the opinion pieces on the left and right that run today, with those pesky early deadlines.
Following an early, very tough David Frum piece LINK , the Wall Street Journal editorial board, the Washington Post editorial board, Robert George in the New York Post , and the New York Times ' Krugman all attack Lott.
The Wall Street Journal ed board thumped Lott before the last statement, but they are mostly mad because "Mr. Lott played right into the hands of opponents who are eager to paint the Republican Party's Southern ascendancy as nothing more than old-fashioned bigotry" rather, it seems, than out of any real concern about his statement itself.
The most interesting aspect of Paul Krugman's pre-apology column of outrage is probably his challenging Jon Karl to a duel. Sort of.
LINK
Robert George in the New York Post goes so far as to suggest that Bush and Rove should consider trying to force Lott out. LINK
On the news side, with the lateness of the final statement, most papers run the wire story, but the New York Times plays up the roles of Jesse Jackson, John Lewis, Al Gore, and Bill Kristol in the narrative. LINK
We were wondering whether any of the other 2004 presidential types would try to match Gore on this and/or be tougher, given that almost all of them serve avec Mr. Lott in the world's most exclusive club with bean soup.
Lucky for us, our friends at Salon were on the case: "When asked if Senator John Edwards, D-N.C., had any reaction to Lott's comments, Edwards' spokesman Mike Briggs said only: 'We've been mulling it over.' Later in the afternoon, the Edwards team finally settled on a statement that called Lott's comments 'wrong' but seemed crafted with an eye toward the all-important 2004 South Carolina primary: 'Obviously we are better off because we did not elect a segregationist in 1948,' Edwards said. 'To his credit, Strom Thurmond has changed over the years. Senator Lott's comments were wrong.'"
"A spokesman for Senator Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said the former vice presidential nominee had not commented on Lott's remarks, but that he might do so soon. Calls seeking comment from other Democratic leaders including Senator John Kerry, D-Mass., and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. were unreturned Monday. None, at this writing, had publicly condemned Lott's remarks."
And third story on the watch list today is the administration's developing health care and prescription drug policy, of which Susan Page has a meaty chunk in USA Today (and which of course relates to Big Casino in a big way).
Page writes in one story: "President Bush is likely to spotlight new health care initiatives in his State of the Union address next month for some of the same reasons he fired leaders of his economic team last week: He wants to show that he's addressing domestic concerns, even as a war with Iraq looms."
LINK
"Health care for a decade has been among the most powerful issues in U.S. politics, ignored by politicians at their peril. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Bush is determined to avoid the fate of his father "
Page also got an interview with HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson and produces this lead to a second story: "President Bush is considering a proposal to offer prescription-drug coverage to seniors. To get it, they would have to join a managed-care plan that will cost them more for doctor's visits."
LINK
"A White House spokesman said it was 'premature' to disclose what Bush would propose. But Thompson's willingness to discuss the agenda seemed to indicate that he expects the ideas to be advanced. Together, they would be the first big domestic initiative that goes well beyond the core programs Bush campaigned on in 2000."
"Thompson said he also wants to launch demonstration projects in states to test new approaches for long-standing problems. Among them is providing health insurance to everyone."
"Thompson said in an interview on Monday that he is urging Bush to include the proposal and other health-care initiatives in his State of the Union speech next month."
Incidentally, David Broder says he will miss Paul O'Neill for his candor and, on a more substantive level, because "he knows as much about what needs fixing in the American health care system as anyone around. It would have been very useful to have him engaged in the health care debate that Congress and the Bush administration now seem ready to begin."
LINK
On the heels of yesterday's big court victory for Vice President Cheney in the energy task force matter, the New York Times looks at yet another conservative thinker in line to take another one of those court seats on which Bill Clinton would have disappointed Nan Aron and filled with a moderate.
LINK
And given the topic (2004 politics) and the press access (zilch), we wonder if Karl Rove's students are subject to the same mind-control strictures that those kids up at Columbia (at least those who don't work for Rupert Murdoch) were under for Al Gore's classes. For those of you who can, check out the classic AP daybook entry on Professor Rove's Hopkins gig tonight.
Mike Allen has the goods in the Washington Post on the Snow confirmation process. "White House officials said they believe Snow, athletic and amiable, will be as disciplined as O'Neill was erratic in making Bush's case to Wall Street and Capitol Hill."
LINK
"Bush had hoped to use yesterday's ceremony to present successors to both O'Neill and economic adviser Lawrence B. Lindsey, who also was forced out Friday. Lindsey's planned replacement, investment banker Stephen Friedman, has run into complications in the review of his financial holdings, and his nomination (sic) has been delayed."
"Reflecting their view that Bush's handling of the economy is one of his vulnerabilities, Democrats made it clear they plan to give Snow no honeymoon and said they will use his Senate confirmation hearings to promote debate about Bush's stewardship of the economy in general and his tax cuts in particular."
"Republicans said they will begin confirmation hearings shortly after the Senate convenes on Jan. 7, and said the hearings should take a few days. Snow will have to remain silent on administration policy until then."
"Aides said that shortly after Jan. 1, Bush will announce" his economic proposals.
The Los Angeles Times ' Gosselin smartly notes, "Bush found something else as well in Snow: membership in a little-noticed fraternity that's hungry to prove once and for all that it can lead and that has provided much of the current administration's top talent the inner circle of the Ford White House."
LINK
The Wall Street Journal 's Personal Journal tees up an interview with incoming Senate Finance Committee chief Grassley to look at what tax cuts might actually pass Congress.
In his column, for some reason, Alan Murray takes a gratuitous shot at the commander in chief ("As for altering Social Security and Medicare, the two men will find their boss an enthusiastic advocate. But it isn't clear Mr. Bush is a wholly informed advocate.")
The Wall Street Journal floats all sorts of the names for the still-vacant SEC job. (And, yes, Mr. Murray, the president knows that that means "Securities and Exchange Commission," and not "Southeast Conference.")
That job just might get filled soon.
The New York Times ' Sanger gets all Elisabethian on O'Neill's absence from the Snow announcement. LINK
The White House and the The Wall Street Journal 's experts disagree about how common it is for executive deals to have a clause like the one Snow had to be able to depart to "fulfill an appointment to public office." (A10)
One day after acknowledging on This Week with George Stephanopoulos that implementing a single-payer health care system might require raising taxes, Al Gore walked that back a bit on another network Monday afternoon.
Asked about single payer, he said the same thing as on This Week: "that doesn't mean a government-run program" that it could be funded by a private entity (what kind of single payer is that? we ask).
Asked about his comments that a tax increase might be required, he said, "Those words were put into my mouth. I don't think we necessarily need any new funds" America is already paying too much for health care.
Funny: we didn't notice any words being put into his mouth.
Senator Byron Dorgan (D) of North Dakota tells Dan Balz of the Washington Post that he doesn't think Gore should run again. "Dorgan, burned by the way Gore and the national Democratic Party ran the 2000 presidential campaign, sent the former vice president a three-page letter in April outlining his complaints. He blamed Gore for issuing an 'I give up' message in North Dakota and many other states long before the campaign was over."
LINK
Today Senator Joe Lieberman will head to New Hampshire, where he will attend an informal lunch with Democratic members of the state House, hold a media avail, and meet with party activists; and then on to Delaware, where he will headline a fundraiser for Gov. Ruth Ann Minner.
Senator John Edwards today will address the North Carolina Farm Bureau's 57th annual meeting in Greensboro.
"Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards entertained about a dozen party activists from New Hampshire at his home Monday night, including a key worker for Al Gore in the state in 2000," reports Will Lester for the AP. In addition to former state Senator Caroline McCarley, who supported Gore in 2000, "The New Hampshire visitors included former state Rep. Linda Foster and her husband Scott Foster, and state Rep. Jim Craig from Manchester, McCarley said."
LINK
The Des Moines Register 's Norman repeats the point that very few Senators manage to get themselves elected straight to the presidency.
LINK
Here's that Marist poll of New Hampshire Democrats everyone's been buzzing about, which shows Kerry within striking distance of Gore.
LINK
The Washington Post 's Barbara Martinez and Lloyd Grove, always a combustible pair, try to make mischief regarding Al Gore, George Bush, and "demon rum."
LINK
David Shribman seems to project far ahead to 2008 and doesn't see too many of the newly elected GOP Senators having trouble winning re-election, predicting that many of them will endure. "That suggests that in the Senate, Republican rule this time could be no fluke and no temporary condition."
LINK
The budget wars are getting ugly in California.
LINK
Bush Administration strategy/personality
:
The Washington Post on the Cheney/GAO verdict: "If the ruling stands, it could severely weaken the GAO, and leave a president largely immune from aggressive congressional oversight unless the opposition party is in the majority."
LINK
Mr. Milbank notes in the same paper, "The apology issued last week by John DiIulio is destined for the Pantheon of Famous Recantations The irony of DiIulio's recantation is he wound up rewarding an information control system he decried in his now-infamous e-mail to an Esquire magazine writer."
LINK
"These are heady times for Rove and the political aides who have been quite successful at limiting scrutiny of White House operations."
What is it with the administration and their fixation on fitness? "President Bush's dismissal of top economic adviser Larry Lindsey came after the president complained privately about the full-figured aide's insufficient exercise. Newsweek this week reported that Bush and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice share a 'mutual fondness for working out.' The administration has also seen the untimely departure of two other men of girth, DiIulio and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt. Is this a trend?"
"An administration official mused yesterday that Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham may start limiting his visits to Wendy's."
John Negroponte gets perhaps his largest moment in the 43rd Street sun ever, with both a correction on his behalf AND a letter to the editor.
LINK and
LINK
Gray Lady historians: do you think that that has ever happened
9:00 am, Fed meeting on interest rates
9:50 am, President Bush meets with the President-elect of Brazil, Oval Office
10:45 am, Congressional Black Caucus news conference on new chairman, House Gallery
10:50 am, President Bush makes remarks at the Business Strengthening America's "Day of Service," US Chamber of Commerce
1:15 pm, President Bush drops by meeting between National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Turkish political leader Tayyip Erdongan
2:15 pm, Fed announcement of decision on interest rates
7:30 pm, Karl Rove addresses graduate students as part of a new government symposium on the upcoming presidential election, with Q&A to follow (all closed press and off the record), Johns Hopkins University Washington Center, DC
Dec. 7: Louisiana run-off
Dec. 9: South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle's birthday
Dec. 9: DGA winter holiday event, DC Dec. 9-14: National Black Caucus of State Legislators (NBCSL) 26th Annual Legislative Conference, Atlanta
Dec. 10: Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates
Dec. 11: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's birthday
Dec. 11: DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe speaks at "Politics and Eggs" Breakfast, Bedford Village Inn, Bedford, NH
Dec. 13: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's birthday
Dec. 15: Deadline for appointments to President council on 9/11 Dec. 16: President Bush meets with Sultan of Brunei, Washington
Dec. 16: Federal Accounting Standards Board meets for rulemaking, DC
Dec. 18: President Bush meets with President Jose Maria Aznar of Spain, DC
Dec. 19: U.S. officials hold Mideast Peace discussions with European ministers, DC
Dec. 21-22: Muslim Public Affairs Council convention, Long Beach, California
Dec. 26: California Gov. Gray Davis's birthday
Dec. 31: Conference board release consumer confidence survey
Jan, 1 2003: New federal individual contribution limits take effect (tentative) Jan 1, 2003: Jennifer Granholm (D) sworn in as Michigan governor
Jan 4, 2003: Special election to fill Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District seat
Jan 6, 2003: Gov. Gray Davis (D) sworn in for second term as California governor
Jan 7, 2003: Congress back in session Jan.7, 2003: Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) delivers state of the state address
Jan 8, 2003: California Gov. Gray Davis (D) delivers state of the state address
Jan 9, 2003: Craig Benson (R)sworn in as New Hampshire governor
Jan 11, 2003: Continuing budget resolution expires
Jan 13, 2003: pretrial hearing for ex-Enron CFO Andrew Fastow Jan 13, 2003: Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) delivers state of the state speech
Jan 13, 2003: Iowa Legislature convenes
Jan 14, 2003: Sonny Perdue (R) sworn in as governor of Georgia
Jan 14, 2004: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) delivers state of the state address
Jan 15, 2003: Bob Ehrlich (R) sworn in as governor of Maryland
Jan 17, 2003: Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) sworn in for second term as Iowa governor
Jan 18, 2003: Linn County, Iowa Third Annual sustaining banquet with guests to be announced. Jan 21, 2003: Ed Rendell (D) sworn in as Pennsylvania governor
Jan 23, 2003: Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) delivers state of the state address
Jan 21-24, 2003: National Association of Homebuilders annual convention, Las Vegas
Jan 21-24, 2003: American Federation of Teachers executive meeting, Hollywood, Florida
Jan. 22, 2003: National March for Life, Washington, DC
Jan. 22-24, 2003: U.S. Conference of Mayors, DC
Jan 23-25, 2003: FamiliesUSA annual health care conference, DC
Jan 26, 2003: Super Bowl, San Diego
Jan. 28, 2003: President delivers State Of The Union address
Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday Jan 30-Feb. 1, 2003: Conservative Political Action Conference, Crystal City, Virginia
Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
Feb. 1-4, 2003: National Automobile Dealers Association annual convention, San Francisco
Feb. 1-5, 2003 Association of Trial Lawyers of America winter convention at the Hyatt Regency in Maui
Feb, 13, 2003: New Hampshire Gov. Craig Benson delivers state of the state address
Feb, 18-22, 2003: Service Employees International Union convention, Las Vegas
February 20-22, 2003: Democratic National Committee winter meeting, DC
Feb, 21-24, 2003: National Association of Secretaries of State Winter Meeting, DC
Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman's birthday
Feb, 24, 2003: February 24, 2003 Democratic Governors Association annual Taste of America Gala at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington, DC
March 3-5, 2003: American Medical Association annual advocacy conference, DC
March 7-11, 2003: National League of Cities holds annual congressional
city conference
March 11, 2003: Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes's birthday
March 23, 2003: The Oscars, Los Angeles
March 28-April 1, 2003: March 28 - April 1, 2003 American Pharmaceutical Association's annual meeting and exposition at the Morial Convention Center in New Orleans
March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
April 5-10, 2003: National Association of Broadcasters annual convention, Las Vegas
May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
May 20, 2003: Kentucky primary
May 27, 2003: Jury selection begins in U.S. vs. Moussaoui
June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
June 30, 2003: tentative start date for Moussaoui trial
July 6, 2003: President Bush's birthday
July 19-23, 2003: Association of Trial Lawyers of America convention, San Francisco
July 23-26, 2003: National Conference of State Legislatures Annual Meeting, San Francisco
July 25-29, 2003: National Association of Secretaries of State Summer Meeting, Portland, Maine
July 27-Aug 1, 2003: United Food and Commercial Workers union annual meeting, San Francisco
July 28, 2003: Bill Bradley's birthday.
Aug. 8-12, 2003: American Bar Association annual meeting, San Francisco
Aug. 14, 2003: Lynne Cheney's birthday
Aug. 16-19,2003 National Governors Association summer meeting in Indianapolis
Aug. 19, 2003: Bill Clinton's birthday
Aug. 19, 2003: Tipper Gore's birthday
Sept. 15-17, 2003: National Restaurant Association lobbying conference, DC
Oct. 4, 2003: Louisiana primary
Nov. 4, 2003: General elections in Kentucky and Mississippi
Nov. 6-11, 2003: National Association of Realtors annual convention, San Francisco
Jan. 19, 2004: Iowa Caucuses (tentative)
Jan 27, 2004: New Hampshire Primary(tentative)
Feb. 3, 2004: South Carolina Primary (tentative)
July 26, 2004: Start of Democratic National Convention, Boston
Aug. 14-29, 2004: 2004 Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
Nov. 2, 2004: United States holds general election
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