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First, our extrapolated survey of the Gang of 200 — Al and Judy, Ben and Sally, and the rest of the Chattering Class elite (yes, even the media and political elite have an elite) who will be gathering at holiday festivities over the next several days — suggests that 90 percent of them think he will be forced out as leader, and 59 percent of them seem to think he should be.

Second, whatever message President Bush actually intended to send, his words yesterday are being widely interpreted as an attempt to saw off the branch.

For example, the Los Angeles Times ' Simon and Hook write that Bush's comments "kept alive questions of whether Lott could lose his leadership post." LINK

The Gang's CW includes this: 1) that Democrats will be better off if Lott stays; 2) that IF Lott stays, he is forever weakened; 3) that Lott must come out and speak more directly about race and what's in his heart; and 4) that there will be more shoes dropping about Lott's record in the weekend papers and in the newsweeklies.

Lott's response to the Time.com story about blocking fraternity integration was kind of amazing in that it basically amounted to punting on defending or explaining his past.

And the Wall Street Journal 's Mayor of the Hill, David Rogers, gives bold voice to the heart of the Chattering Class' view of Lott (the Gang of 200 being an elite subset of the Chattering Class, as we suggested above): "But the 61-year-old senator remains almost singularly vulnerable to this type of controversy, given his deep distrust of the media and often distant relationship with the African-American community."

And: "Even now, Mr. Lott has yet to hold a full-fledged news conference to address the controversy, and his only two media interviews thus far have been by telephone with friendly radio and television talk shows."

The tone of the morning show coverage was: it's (practically) just a matter of time before another shoe drops — maybe a big one.

And even the Gang's more cautious voices are openly speculating about where all of this might lead. Rogers dispenses with the Bush rebuke in paragraph #1, and then you almost lose your breath reading graphs #2 and #3: "White House officials insisted later that Mr. Lott doesn't need to resign his post, but the presidential rebuke — and its lack of any statement supporting the senator — casts doubt on his future as Senate majority leader in the new Congress."

"Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, a close ally of the president, and Senator Don Nickles of Oklahoma, Mr. Lott's former deputy, are potential replacements. Neither man has moved yet to challenge Mr. Lott, but the week-old controversy has spiraled to a point where his leadership role is in serious peril."

David Frum's diary today makes several important points. Remember, by the way, where Mr. Frum used to work, and what he used to do. (Bush White House speechwriter, for those of you just joining us … )

"That was something much less than a ringing endorsement the president offered Trent Lott yesterday." LINK

"First he steps onto a platform in Philadelphia and denounces Trent Lott by name … Next, administration spokesman Ari Fleischer tells the press on the record that 'the president doesn't think Trent Lott needs to resign.' Odd formulation that, isn't it? Fleischer didn't offer a comment on Trent Lott himself (eg, "Senator Lott has the president's confidence and support") but on the merits of a Lott resignation. Nor did Fleischer say that a resignation would be undesirable — only that it would be unnecessary. Sorry, my mistake: Fleischer didn't say that Lott's resignation would be unnecessary — only that the president thinks it would be unnecessary."

"Then, on background, unnamed 'advisers' make the following points: 1. The president has never much liked Trent Lott. 2. Bush sees himself as the first Republican president in a generation to campaign explicitly for black votes — a campaign compromised by Lott's indiscretion. 3. The White House fully expects further damaging disclosures about him. 4. In the White House's view, these disclosures will probably embolden senators to challenge Lott's leadership."

"It couldn't be clearer if the president actually pulled the lever on the trap door himself, could it?"

More blind quotes from the incomparably sourced Tom DeFrank of New York's "bad" tab: "'It could be the death knell for Trent,' one highly placed GOP source said after Bush brought a racially mixed Philadelphia audience to its feet with an unusually forceful public admonishment of a key Republican ally." LINK

DeFrank lets one source give voice to the Bonjean Dream: "'I actually think Bush weighing in may help put an end to this,' a top GOP source said. 'As long as no Republican senators call for his resignation, this should die out in a few days."

But then: "But other sources close to the White House argued that Bush had made it easier for Senate Republicans, particularly moderates, to consider asking Lott to step aside for the good of the party."

"'This is a White House that does almost nothing spontaneously,' a senior GOP official said. 'The president's remarks were planned and purposeful. There can be no other purpose for what the president said than to signal to Trent that he needs to quit.'"

We thought it was too early to float this yesterday; today, we appear to be late by the standards of the coverage. The White House would seem to prefer Frist to Nickles if Lott goes, but can anyone stop Nickles within the dynamics of a leadership fight? And how long would such a fight take? And how big a story would it be?

As ABCNEWS reported exclusively this morning (complete with video), Lott is vacationing in Florida.

Anybody know of any conference calls or meetings yesterday among certain cooing (and maybe "couping") GOP Senators, say, toward the end of the day? The amount of rumor-mongering and fire-stomping going on among the Republicans is making them seem positively like Democrats.

We aren't sure if the right model is the Venezuela coup or the Gingrich one, but when the leader is away, even (or actually: "especially") over a recess, like-minded "plotters" sure know how to find each other, and they just might say VERY different things in their talks with each other than they do with you, Senator Lott, and your allies. IF you can still figure out who your allies are.

While the most likely suspects in the Senate to be the first to speak out against Lott have been publicly supportive of him since this broke (Senators McCain, Snowe, Specter, Collins, and Hagel), almost all of them are now in the "he needs to say more" school, after starting off in the "we know Trent and he isn't a racist and let's move on" school.

The Tennessean's lead story is a must-read for a few reasons.

First, THE classic headline of the day: "Bush, Frist Condemn Lott's Remarks."

And guess who's quoted first?

"Tennessee Senator Bill Frist revised his comments on Senator Trent Lott and issued a denunciation of controversial remarks by the Senate Republican leader that seemed to praise the South's history of segregation after President Bush criticized Lott yesterday." LINK

"'Senator Lott's choice of words was insensitive and poorly chosen,' said Frist, a Republican. 'Segregationist policies are the saddest chapter in our nation's history, and comments from any elected official that suggest support for these offensive policies of the past must be condemned."'

"In his first statement, issued Wednesday, Frist characterized Lott's comments as 'an unfortunate choice of words' which had 'been interpreted unfairly.'"

Also, the article notes, casually, that Senator Lott "is expected [emphasis our own] to become Senate majority leader." That is no longer inevitable.

And finally, there's this paragraph: "But David Kustoff, a Memphis Republican who was director of Bush's Tennessee campaign and is co-chairman of Alexander's transition team, said many grass-roots Republicans were upset because of the damage Lott's remarks could cause to GOP outreach to minorities."

On to Maine, where the Portland Press Herald certainly understands the importance of its home-state Senators speaking out. LINK

But notice that Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins aren't necessarily at the same place in the scrum.

"Snowe, a Republican who has served 24 years with Lott in the House and Senate, called segregation 'a reprehensible blight on our past.' She said she never would have supported Lott for leadership positions if she thought the remarks accurately portrayed his beliefs."

"It was critical that he apologize — I was deeply disappointed with his choice of words that were insensitive and offensive, and I expressed my concerns to him in conversations this week,' Snowe said in a statement. 'In those discussions, he expressed deep regret for the implications of his remarks and was clearly remorseful. I believe his apology was sincere."

"Collins, also a Republican, issued a statement saying 'Senator Lott's comments were completely unacceptable and do not reflect the ideals of our country nor the values of the Republican Party. As President Bush noted, any suggestion that the segregated past was acceptable or positive in any way is simply wrong.'"

By the way: when politicians issue unprompted revisions of their earlier statements, why doesn't anyone ever take them to task for revising their beliefs in light of the developing situation? In other words: why didn't they express their outrage immediately? What's changed?

It's a recess, and we can't find all of these folks ourselves, so, Dear Colleagues in the Local Political Press: could you ask these GOP Senators, how come they are revising and extending? (We think we know the answer, but we would like to hear how they explain it.)

The Wall Street Journal says "As quickly as Senator Arlen Specter (R., Pa.) expressed support for Mr. Lott, a home-state coalition of labor, religious and community organizations demanded Mr. Specter act to remove the leader," reminding us that some Senators might actually feel pressure from their constituents to abandon Lott.

In their story, the Los Angeles Times ' Simon and Hook report, "Senator Charles Hagel (R-Neb.) broached the prospect that Lott's job is in jeopardy. 'Is this a big enough deal to cause a revolution in the Republican conference? I don't think so, but these things have a way of going further than you expect.'" LINK

A lot of Republican Senators, though, are still staying quiet, along with some other Republican Bigs who recognize the potential damage of all this, and might actually have had their consciences pricked by Krauthammer or someone else.

"Some call Lott the new Newt Gingrich of the GOP, recalling how Democrats were able to mobilize voters and raise money by invoking the controversial Gingrich when he was House speaker," says USA Today 's Lawrence. LINK

"Among Republicans who did not return calls Thursday were former Senate majority leader Bob Dole, national Republican Party chairman Marc Racicot and Haley Barbour, a former party chairman preparing to run for governor of Mississippi."

The New York Times says " … Mr. Bush's remarks distanced the president from a man whom his advisers say he has never particularly liked." LINK

(Maybe it was that hat with the feather Lott wore that time; we bet the president HATED that.)

"White House Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr. called Lott before Bush's speech, and Lott said he agreed with the president's comments. A Lott aide said the president and Lott spoke by phone after the speech; the aide characterized the exchange as 'positive.'" LINK

"White House aides said Mr. Bush has no intention of wading further into the controversy, which was expected to rage for at least several more days." LINK

"Bush also seemed to be acting out of a concern that more damaging revelations could be in the offing, one Republican official said, a fear that seemed borne out by a report yesterday that Lott helped keep black members out of his college fraternity." LINK

The only conservative voice we can find in this news cycle joining the "Lott should step aside" team is Peggy Noonan, who writes in her usual broad and evocative manner on race, and shows just how much L'Affair Lott has scrambled things when she calls Harold Ickes a "hero." LINK

Peggy is a must-read today.

The story has moved somewhat beyond the (un)friendly realm of the Chattering Class, as Charles Barkley also said some really negative things about Lott yesterday. We'd put our money on an on-point Saturday Night Live sketch of some moment, too (and wonder whether Al Gore will be taking part in it).

There are too many op-eds and analysis pieces out there today to list them all, let alone quote from them.

The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board isn't ready to fully push Lott from the sled, but they give him a big invite to look OFF the sled and consider maybe taking the leap himself.

After first decrying the opportunism of the Democrats and the culture of Washington that has led to all of this (and Lott's words), the Journal concludes: "In light of this, it's remarkable that Senate Republicans have shown the restraint they have. Partly this is because Mr. Lott had shrewdly moved GOP leadership elections earlier than usual this year. Had the majority leader vote been held this week instead, he would no doubt be facing a stiff challenge from the likes of Kentucky's Mitch McConnell, Bill Frist of Tennessee or Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum. We think they would all do better as GOP leaders than Mr. Lott."

"But none of them is now likely to challenge a sitting leader. So it is going to be up to Mr. Lott to search his own conscience and decide if he remains the best man to lead Republicans in the Senate."

The Washington Post 's Milbank and VandeHei write, "Republican senators, including some who criticized Lott's comments in private, said his job appears safe so far, although several said things could change dramatically if the controversy is not quelled soon." LINK

"Many Republicans were taken aback by the tone of Bush's remarks. 'Lott wanted Bush to send him a life preserver, but he sent him an anchor,' a senior GOP aide said."

"If Lott can weather the storm a few more days, however, Republican senators said they believe the controversy will blow over."

"White House officials, monitoring senators' reactions, said there was some concern but that Lott appeared to be safe for now."

"A top GOP aide said Lott can withstand calls for his resignation from conservative activists outside of Congress. They include columnist Charles Krauthammer and writer William J. Bennett, who today suggested that Lott step aside unless he can provide a better explanation of his remarks. But if Republican senators start a drumbeat, Lott's leadership post could be deeply imperiled."

"Without mentioning Lott by name, White House political director Ken Mehlman said Bush has often commented that no political party can be 'a great national party that is not winning a greater percentage' of the minority vote … Mehlman, speaking at a political conference in Washington, said the best strategy for the GOP to improve its support among blacks "is to produce results" in education reform and other social programs." LINK

In the only other big political news we see out there heading into the weekend, Knight Ridder softly reports that EPA Administrator Christie Whitman is expected "to leave her job soon." LINK

"Whitman, a former New Jersey governor and a high-profile Republican moderate, has been a green-friendly face on President Bush's environmental team, but she reportedly has chafed at the administration's pro-development policies."

Whitman's office strongly denies it. "Nevertheless, the buzz in Washington's environmental-policy community only grows louder. In the most common scenario, Whitman is expected to take an ambassadorship. That would permit her to walk away from the EPA without abandoning Bush, and would let the White House cast her departure as a promotion for a deserving team player. Whitman's associates say she loves foreign policy and has a strong sense of loyalty to Bush."

The Sierra Club's legislative director "predicts a Christmas Eve announcement of Whitman's departure, because the Bush administration often discloses environmental news on days when few people are paying attention."

"Even as Whitman still holds her position, three names are being floated throughout Washington as her possible successors: auto industry lobbyist Josephine Cooper, retiring Michigan Gov. John Engler and Florida Environmental Protection Secretary David Struhs."

And finally, some Bush personnel news that ISN'T tentative: vice-presidential adviser Mary Matalin is returning to private life January. During her time in the administration, she showed absolute loyalty to President Bush and Vice President Cheney.

A source close to Matalin tells The Note: Matalin plans to stay closely involved with helping the White House. She is also expected to return to the speaking circuit, and is exploring other opportunities.

Not that Matalin can actually be replaced, but expect her successor to come from within the administration.

Scooter: if you get bored, call us and we will chat playfully with you.

Lott

Once again, courtesy of the incomparable David Eaton (a West Coast boy with a new Southern heart), the editorial round-up from the region:

The Columbia (SC) State — the leading paper in Senator Thurmond's home state — calls for Lott's removal as Majority Leader. LINK

The Florida Sun Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale) says Lott should remove himself from consideration for Majority Leader. LINK

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger says Lott's explanations — up to now — are wanting and he owes the state of Mississippi an apology. LINK

The Memphis-Commercial Appeal — which yesterday called for Lott to apologize — today calls for him to stand down as a candidate for Majority Leader. LINK

The Charleston (SC) paper also calls for Lott not to run for Majority Leader. LINK

The Raleigh News & Observer takes a softer tone, saying that Lott should be permitted to extricate his foot from his mouth. LINK

The Winston-Salem (NC) Journal suggests Senate Republicans can come up with a better candidate than Lott. LINK

The Greenville News (SC) calls into question Lott's suitability for a national leadership position. LINK

EJ Dionne and USA Today both found a dismayed and displeased former Senator Ed Brooke (R), who says he would not vote today for Lott for majority leader. LINK LINK

Robert George finds his voice again for today's column. LINK

Another once Lott-friendly venue turns cold: the New York Post letters page. LINK

Adam Clymer does some major-league thumb-sucking in the New York Times , but we mean that in a good way: "Despite the initial amnesiac calm that greeted Mr. Lott's statement that the country would have been better off if Mr. Thurmond was elected in 1948, the potential damage in the suburbs is hard to overstate … " LINK

Poor Peggy Noonan. Her otherwise outstanding piece is slightly marred by the fact that she analyzes why the New York Times ISN'T "flooding the zone" (Peggy uses sports metaphors more than The Note does) on the very day the paper (with articles and sidebars galore) moves Howell's Southern/race obsession focus from the Masters to Lott. (Our atlas suggests that Mississippi and Alabama are very near each other.)

Edsall and Fears went to work for the Washington Post and found "that over the past 40 years, [Lott] has consistently taken positions at odds with those of the traditional civil rights community." LINK

Whither Judge Charles Pickering? LINK

"Three black University of Mississippi freshmen could face expulsion for scribbling racist and obscene graffiti on dormitory doors of other black students, officials say," according to the AP.

When Mississippi's racial past is under scrutiny, incidents like this one — even though it's counterintuitive — probably become more important. LINK

Jackson County is on edge. "The television footage of 'what Trent said' wears on the nerves and sets telephones to ringing in Jackson County. It just won't go away. People are worried, outraged and uncertain." LINK

Mounting pressure on Lott from the state's legislative black caucus, while Republican lawmakers continue to defend him. LINK

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution finds Pascagoula a town divided. LINK

NOW doesn't like Lott's "sexual innuendo." LINK

As a leading indicator of why the White House and the Republicans might want to cut this off, some Democrats are thinking of saying, in effect, "If the CCC and the Southern Partisan aren't good enough for Trent Lott why not re-open the John Ashcroft file once the Lott episode plays out?" Senator Robert Byrd remains the GOP's favorite push-back talking point.

If the Democrats were more organized, they might actually begin to realize the risk of a backlash if they bash "Southern culture" too much, given their mixed results in that region in this past election, but we are a long way away from that storyline.

Economic Team

New White House economic adviser Steve Friedman "was criticized over the past week by conservative activists who accused him of being insufficiently devoted to tax cuts. Bush was unmoved, and some of his senior aides were annoyed by what they saw as interference." LINK

The Club for Growth's Stephen Moore tells the Washington Times ' Don Lambro that the White House's Karl Rove "guaranteed" Moore that "'Friedman will be a solid supporter of'" tax cuts. LINK

"White House officials said that Mr. Friedman's appointment was delayed this week because of questions about a minor heart condition that flared up last week and a detailed review of his large investment holdings."

If you aren't impressed by the sheer bulk of the New York Times coverage of the new economic team today, you need to recalibrate your standards. We didn't even have time to read it all.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

For those of you think the Democratic nomination field is pretty set, what would you say if you heard that Senator Bob Graham of Florida had initiated some "serious discussions" with people about whether he might put together a strong 2004 presidential campaign?

If Walter Shapiro were doing his "Invisible Primary" book as an online weblog instead of a book, the whole chapter on the LiebermanWorld folks gritting their teeth while they wait for Gore's decision would be a truly fabulous one — filled with intrigue, personality clashes, and a surprising amount of invective.

Sources say that yesterday, Sherry Brown, the executive director of Lieberman's ROCPAC, sent around Adam Nagourney's New York Times article from yesterday suggesting Gore associates believed he wouldn't run to a bunch of donors and Lieber-friends with the following note: "Isn't it nice to know that your investment in us might actually pay off? Don't go on any extended vacations — we may need you!!!"

Oh, Sherry: go a little softer on those exclamation points; the guy might still run.

From the Wall Street Journal /NBC poll, which is littered throughout today's "Washington Wire:" "Democrats no longer look first to Bill Clinton or Al Gore as the party voice; Senate party leader Tom Daschle ranks at the top, the choice of 21% of Democrats … "

"Among Democrats polled, Senator Kerry moves to 2nd place among 2004 presidential rivals — the choice of 13% to Gore's 39%; he gets contract with Viking for book on his 'vision for America.'"

The Boston Globe writes up the results of the Hotline/University of Virginia surveys conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. LINK

John Wagner reports in the Raleigh News & Observer that Bill Bradley 2000 deputy campaign manager Ed Turlington "is in line to play a leading role in the presidential campaign of U.S. Senator John Edwards if the North Carolina Democrat moves forward with a 2004 White House bid. Turlington … is expected to be among the key operatives stationed in Raleigh, where Edwards will base his operations." LINK

"If Edwards moves forward with a presidential bid, former Gore aide Nick Baldick is also expected to play a major role in the Raleigh-based operation. Steve Jarding, the current director of Edwards' political action committee, is likely to play an advisery role from Washington."

Soon, meet Dr. Judith Steinberg, potential First Lady? LINK

Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle will be in Iowa tonight addressing the 12th Annual East Central Iowa-North Western Illinois AFL-CIO Hall of Fame Banquet, hosted by the Quad City Federation of Labor, in Bettendorf.

The St. Pete Times busts some great details about the RNC convention site selection conference call, with a focus on the New York bid. LINK

Politics

Democratic Caucus chairman Bob Menendez will deliver his party's response to the president's radio address this Saturday.

TNR's Michael Crowley looks at Senator Mary Landrieu's killer sugar ad and the internal debate over whether to head into runoff day on a positive or negative note. LINK

The Washington Post 's Walsh reports on former GOP Rep. Jim Rogan's nice side income from the rental of his donor list, after losing one of the most expensive House races in history in 2000. LINK

Correction: When we wrote yesterday that Erskine Bowles in 2002 broke John Edwards' record for the biggest loan of personal funds to a campaign for public office, we (duh) meant to say, in North Carolina.

Even though incoming New Hampshire Gov. Craig Benson (R) says he played no role in Enterasys, the off-shot from his Cabletron company, it can't help that this week's news accounts presage a long, public look into both companies' histories. LINK

Senator Judd Gregg (R): Chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, member of the Appropriations Committee, and candidate for re-election in 2004. LINK

Many Florida Democrats think that the only thing preventing Tallahassee Mayor and former state Attorney General candidate Scott Maddox from becoming the new chair of the state party is a lingering belief that he will use the Post as a platform for his own political aspirations. Stay tuned. LINK

New York viewers face a tough choice in fewer than 48 hours.

In Gotham, to watch "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" and Tivo two-thirds of The Note on C-SPAN's "Sunday Journal" at 9:00 am, or to do the reverse.

Good luck deciding.

Cultural PSA

Stop by the Rhodeside Grill in Arlington Saturday night around 9:00 p.m. and see for yourself that AP White House reporters really do have lives — and for once we're not talking about a family night with Fournier. Quite the opposite. Word has it that Scott Lindlaw and his band, name TBD, will be making their public debut. Trust us, don't wait for the Behind the Music special.