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Today is such a day.

President Bush has just one publicly scheduled event, his meeting with the president of Ecuador, but the swirl of news surrounding France and NATO already has sucked up all the oxygen this morning and probably will continue to do so for the news cycle.

Those of you jonesing for domestic political subleads, however, have two to chomp on. The first is Mr. Andrea Mitchell's scheduled appearance before the Senate Banking Committee this morning, at which he is expected, per the Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman, to come out in favor of eliminating the double taxation of dividends, which has become the focal point of the Bush economic plan.

For some reason, we seem to know an awful lot more than usual in advance about what Dr. Greenspan will have to say. The Note has no idea why this is the case.

The other sublead out there is the running pratfall that is the administration's Medicare proposal, whose tortured and uncertain route to Congress reminds us of a Tim Conway skit (and not a very good one).

The Fed chief's testimony is expected to be a shot of good news for the White House. "Greenspan is expected to endorse President Bush's proposal to end the double taxation of corporate dividends today … according to congressional sources and others familiar with his thinking." LINK

"Democrats, and possibly a few Republicans, on the Senate Banking Committee will push the chairman to emphasize his concerns over the rising budget deficit. But congressional sources say Greenspan will hold firm to his long-standing support for slashing taxes on dividends. He will express concern about the deficit, sources said, but will tell lawmakers that they must decide how to bring the budget back into balance."

"Greenspan told a group of moderate senators last month that the dividend proposal is not likely to provide short-term economic stimulus, a position that he will be asked to reiterate today. His words could provide a counterweight to the naysayers. As one White House economist put it, 'there will be lots of televisions on' and tuned in to his testimony."

And then Weisman gets into how Greenspan is really in a tough spot on deficit spending.

Further emphasizing how today could represent a shift for Greenspan, ABCNEWS' Schindelheim Notes, "Greenspan reportedly has told several senators privately that he does not think they should be passing a fiscal plan until at least late summer — until after we see what happens to the economy as the result of war with Iraq. This could be the most intense questioning of the Chairman in some time. Democrats will try their best to get Greenspan to say this on-the-record. Republicans will try their best to get Greenspan to support the president's plan."

She adds, "You also might recall that back in November, the Chairman appeared before a budget committee. His comments on President Bush's campaign to make the tax cuts permanent generated a political tug-of-war, with each side claiming victory."

As for the economy, Schindelheim advises to "expect him to lower his forecast for economic growth and raise his forecast for unemployment. In his last semi-annual speech to Congress in July, Greenspan forecast GDP of 3.5-4% for 2003. (The latest Blue Chip Economic Survey lowered its forecast to 2.7%.) Greenspan also predicted the unemployment rate would be down to 5.2% to 5.5% by the end of 2003. It is at 5.7% now, but few economists believe it will go lower any time soon."

The Washington Post editorial page resurrects a two-year-old Greenspan warning: "'With today's euphoria surrounding the surpluses, it is not difficult to imagine the hard-earned fiscal restraint developed in recent years rapidly dissipating. We need to resist those policies that could readily resurrect the deficits of the past and the fiscal imbalances that followed in their wake.'" LINK

We write all the time about 43's efforts to avoid the mistakes of 41, and between those efforts, and simply through changed circumstances, George W. Bush may well steer clear of the political peril Bill Clinton was able to whip up for 41 over the deficit.

The differences, for now: no Ross Perot around to double-team with Democrats against (this) Bush; less voter anger at Washington in the wake of September 11; less voter concern about the deficit now, after the long economic boom; a weakened anti-deficit faction among conservatives; and the lack of any Democratic presidential candidate really making the case, as Clinton did ("a bone caught in our throats," "eating our seed corn," etc.).

Taking advantage of Bush economic vulnerabilities at a time of recession and after a successful war against Iraq was basically how Bill Clinton got elected in 1992.

But, as he himself says in that Atlantic Monthly interview we'll keep referring you back to for the rest of the year, he had spent years at the National Governors Association, the Democratic Governors Association, and various national policy groups mastering the intricacies of the federal government.

Having learned about the prose of government (we're making a Mario Cuomo reference here, people), he was able to talk during the campaign about the poetry, which is essential to beat an incumbent president.

Much of Bill Clinton's poetry and prose in that effort came from the Democratic Leadership Council. It's no secret that the "most DLC" candidate in the 2004 race is Joe Lieberman, who is a close personal friend of the organization's godfather, Al From. But the group is willing to offer its advice to all comers (and in fact, thinks they should be all coming), and today they do just that.

The cover of the Democratic Leadership Council's latest edition of Blueprint magazine asks, "So you want to be President?," touting a "political memo" from Al From and Bruce Reed. The mega memo is addressed to the wannabes, with Senator John McCain cc'ed, and the lead includes the tongue-in-cheek line: "If you're lucky, you might be the first senator in your row to get into the race." LINK

The memo offers some admittedly "unsolicited suggestions" on how to "make sure" (is that a guarantee, Al and Bruce?) things go well, including a list of "10 of the best ideas to pursue."

Among those (unsketched-out) ideas: bolstering homeland security, reforming the tax code, instilling more teacher accountability, improving access to health care, and pushing energy-efficient technologies.

"Your most formidable opponent isn't President Bush or your fellow contestants for the nomination," From and Reed tell the wannabes. "Your real enemy is the ghost of Democrats past."

"The doubts Democrats worked so hard to dispel in the 1990s — that they loved government and taxes too much, and cared about security and values too little — have returned. The pounding Democrats took in the 2002 elections made painfully clear that no Democratic nominee can beat Bush without first changing the face of the Democratic Party."

"In other words, many Americans already have questions about your character even before they've heard your name … You have no time to waste in proving you're your own man, not your party's. The Bush team will raise and spend $200 million over the next 18 months to dredge up every bad Democratic stereotype. With each chance you get, you have to start right away running against that stereotype."

"Every campaign needs its 'Sister Souljah' moment to demonstrate that the candidate will speak truth to power — and to make sure the public sits up and takes notice."

" … [T]he American people still have deep misgivings about the Bush administration. They know the president cares a lot more about corporations and the wealthy than he does about people like them. They know the Bush White House will always side with business over any competing interest, from the environment to health care to the family. They don't believe the president has changed the tone in Washington. They respect the president's resolve after 9/11, but still wonder if he's out of his depth at home and abroad."

"The far more objective and credible way to attack Bush and the Republicans is not to hold them to the Democratic Party's standards, but to hold them to the standards they set for themselves. The administration will spend the next two years insisting that the president has kept his promises. Your job is to show that in the ways that matter, he has not."

Although these policy prescriptions range across a lot of areas and include national security, it's the twin Bush problems of the economy and the deficit that are likely to make or break this President's re-election.

A budget must-read, as David Rogers of the Wall Street Journal can hardly believe his eyes: "A massive spending bill got even bigger as House and Senate Republican leaders proposed to add Medicare provisions costing as much as $49 billion over the next 10 years to pay for increased reimbursements to physicians."

Remember the Clinton crime bill? Sometimes in the appropriations process, "too big to fail" just doesn't work. In this case, though, it probably will.

If Greenspan's testimony will be the domestic agenda high for the White House in this news cycle, the latest developments on their Medicare proposal will bring their average for the day to zero, with twin print interviews with GOP Bigs.

The (ever-thorny, for the White House) Senate Finance Committee chairman told the Washington Times in an interview that the "White House has 'botched' the debate over President Bush's prescription-drug plan, but is likely to get the bulk of the accelerated tax cuts he wants by early April … Senator Charles E. Grassley, Iowa Republican, also gently admonished White House officials for not briefing him fully on the president's tax-free supersavings accounts, which caught him by surprise and have since run into criticism from some House Republicans. 'I didn't have any idea that they would be so sweeping' … " http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030211-11862190.htm

"'The White House doesn't have to brief me on anything, but if they would brief me, I could keep them out of some trouble,' Mr. Grassley said. 'They can do what they want to, but they can't get it done without Congress' approval, and it's my job to help the president. But they've got to give me an opportunity to help him.'"

"Some of Mr. Bush's allies on Capitol Hill have privately complained that the White House has not promoted his tax-cutting initiatives as well as it could, a complaint that Mr. Grassley disputed. But he said he was not satisfied with the way things are going on the president's other domestic-policy fronts."

"'The only thing that the White House has botched is their discussion of prescription drugs. They don't have it well thought out about what they want to do. And they've leaked too much and said too much to the demagogues of the other party, who believe that only the government can deliver health care,' he said."

And the Chicago Tribune's Zuckman rolls this out: "Using uncharacteristically blunt language, House Speaker Dennis Hastert told President Bush in a White House meeting that his tentative plan to require seniors to leave the Medicare program in order to obtain prescription drug benefits is unworkable. 'I don't think you can do it humanely,' Hastert, an Illinois Republican, said he told Bush. 'I don't think you can do it politically. I don't think it's practical.'"

"In a meeting with the Tribune editorial board Monday, Hastert said he told Bush that 'I don't think you can pass a piece of legislation that takes an 80-year-old grandmother and says you have to give up your fee-for-service as you know it in order to get a drug piece on it.' Hastert said Bush nodded and said, '"Well, you know, you're going to write the legislation." And we will.'"

Charlie Cook writes in CongressDailyAM: "Presumably, as public attention over the next few weeks turns increasingly onto foreign policy and national security issues, Bush's approval ratings will pick up some … The key questions then are how the economy is doing and what the public perception is of Bush's performance on dealing with the economy and domestic issues once public attention returns to that subject. Will there be a sustained 'halo' effect that improves the president's measurements even on aspects of his performance completely unrelated to the war for a sustained period of time, or will the good will become more 'compartmentalized,' largely confined to those areas in which he is seen as excelling?"

One last item: "The Bush administration plans to double licensing fees on doctors, pharmacies and drug makers to expand the government's fight against prescription drug abuse, which is growing rapidly across the nation. Officials said the fee increase will be disclosed in the next few days by the Drug Enforcement Administration." LINK

Our thanks again to DC's coolest guest editor, John Harwood.

And Ron Ziegler, RIP.

Big Casino/budget politics:

The New York Times ' Firestone can't believe all these modern-day David Stockmans who are the House Republicans who no longer seem to think deficits are really bad for anything, and are dandy for controlling spending. LINK

We still can't quite understand how one can say spending is being controlled under these circumstances, but, then, we still spend our milk money on candy.

Robert Pear (or rather, probably, Robert Pear's sources) continues to find elements of the Bush budget that would appear to some to be positively Dickensian, if Mitch Daniels were actually named "Mitch Poorwacker."

In today's episode: "The Bush administration is proposing to increase rents charged to thousands of poor people who receive federal housing aid." LINK

In looking at the costs of state and local layoffs owing to budget cuts, the The Wall Street Journal sees human despair, while the White House political team presumably sees both bad news (less chance for consumer spending) and good news (fewer AFSCME members).

But that same political team can only see bad news in this big threat to the American Dream, also brought to you by the Journal: "Confirming what students and their parents already knew — and certain to fuel the growing national outcry over college costs — an influential education think tank says that states are passing along their budget woes to public university students and their families. Tuitions are rising by double digits in some states, while the amount of state-funded student aid is dropping."

The New York Times finds an overlooked tax deduction for high health care costs. LINK

A sluggish retail sales market is pushing out more and more executives. LINK

A brief New York Times story postulates that advance ticket sales for long flights are down because passengers worry about getting stuck if a war break outs. LINK

If you are a longtime student of Big Casino — "longtime" meaning over the past decade — you'll know why this is here: former Rep. Ed Mezvinsky began his seven-year prison term yesterday. LINK

Estrada

Senator John Edwards is expected to make a floor statement on Estrada at some point today, which would make him the second Democratic presidential candidate to offer a public statement, after Senator Joe Lieberman's comments in the gallery.

New York Republicans bashed Senators Clinton and Schumer for threatening to filibuster. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Ron Brownstein nicely if not that newsily looks at why the war is often a tough sell for the wannabes among dovish Democratic activists, and how it has created a "foothold" for Dean, and may do so for Sharpton and Kucinich. "At the same time, the widespread Democratic skepticism about war is creating constant tension for the three contenders who have most steadfastly supported President Bush on Iraq: Edwards, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.)." LINK

"Edwards, for instance, said in an interview that he has taken flak for his position 'everywhere, everywhere' he has campaigned, not only among grass-roots activists but also donors and fund-raisers."

"Is there any such thing as a dovish hawk? Or a hawkish dove? We're about to find out. This being the Democratic Party, don't expect any consistency," writes Gloria Borger. LINK

Leading with the Rob Reiner Primary and a quote from Big Donor Haim Saban, the Los Angeles Times ' Mark Z. Barabak tackles the wannabes' mining for gold in Hollywood. "Hollywood is in the throes of an ardent courtship, as candidates, moguls and celebrities get acquainted at elaborate dinners, luncheon tryouts and private performances in the mansions and high-rises of Los Angeles' Westside." LINK

"By the end of February, each of the five leading Democratic contenders will have called on Hollywood at least one time this month."

And here's the handy historical sidebar: LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's cagey ed board puts Senators Lieberman and Biden on the hook for the president's proposed DC voucher experiment, which, we should Note again, is textbook Bush-mostly-below-the-radar-for-the-base politics at its tactical best.

The Edwards' camp's new 919 area code has prompted some sniping from, we suspect, one of two possible rival campaigns. Our only beef with the number is that those of us who have to dial 9 and then 1 to get out sometimes stumble over dialing 9-1-919. LINK

The Boston Globe reports that the "Democratic National Committee is considering taking 70,000 square feet of space in the new 226 Causeway building near the FleetCenter" to use for more media workspace at the 2004 convention. LINK

Republican pollster John McLaughlin said yesterday that President Bush could conceivably win New York state in 2004. LINK

Arizona

As reported here a while ago, Arizona will hold its Democratic nominating contest on February 3. LINK

Edwards

Senator John "Edwards on Monday formally unveiled his top presidential campaign aides in New Hampshire, tapping three veterans of Granite State politics." As Noted previously, former state Senator Caroline McCarley will be Edwards' state director, and state party communications director Colin Van Ostern will be Edwards' New Hampshire press secretary. "Also announced Monday was Field Director Laura Walters, who worked as a regional field director for Al Gore in the New Hampshire primary in 2000 and statewide field director in Tennessee during the general election. She will start later this spring." LINK

The Manchester Union Leader's DiStaso has details about Edwards' visit to the Granite State next week: "So far Edwards has committed to stops in Manchester, Concord and Derry to meet with party activists and undecided voters on Feb. 19, with a more detailed itinerary to come."

State Senator Darrell Jackson will be Edwards' South Carolina chair.

We wonder if Edwards' life will change now that he has an opponent for his Senate seat — unless he has chosen/choose not to run for re-election … Republican Rep. Richard Burr announced yesterday that he is likely to run for Edwards' seat — whether occupied by Edwards or not. "The timing of his announcement, Burr said, was accelerated by Edwards' quest for the presidency. Edwards said last month that he is considering challenging President Bush in 2004, but he has not ruled out seeking re-election to the Senate." LINK

"Burr said that before making his announcement, he spoke with Karl Rove, the president's chief strategist, and Ken Mellman, the White House political director. 'This seat is of significant interest to them,' Burr said."

"Carter Wrenn, a longtime GOP strategist, said putting the heat on Edwards is an extra incentive for the White House to become involved in North Carolina. 'From the White House point of view, they want to give Edwards a little grief on the home front, pin him down a little bit and make it tougher for him to run for both at once,' Wrenn said."

"Burr said he expects to run against Edwards — a race that would give North Carolina its first Senate Battle of the Baby Boomers." LINK

"Burr indicated he would cast himself as a Bush ally on tax cuts, tort reform and other issues, and Edwards, 49, as a senator whose record is 'left of center. And since he has become a presidential campaign,' Burr said of Edwards, 'it is no longer a drift to the left. It may be a sprint to the left.'"

Dana Milbank takes his turn asking the question, is the White House afraid of Edwards? He finds some evidence to suggest as much. "Bush's allies have also been stalking Edwards in the first primary state. According to local press reports, Connecticut Gov. John Rowland, a Republican, told New Hampshire doctors: 'When I pick up a paper and read about how some doctors in New Hampshire beat up a poor Democratic candidate driving through the snow in his station wagon, I'll know you're doing your job.'" LINK

"A key Bush activist, Tom Rath, has joined the American Association of Health Plans, an adversary of Edwards, to help the HMO lobby's political efforts in New Hampshire. The group last week released a poll showing Edwards in fifth place in the state."

"In private conversations, Republicans linked to the White House often talk of Edwards as the most dangerous of the Democratic candidates, because he is handsome and southern and 'undefined' in the public imagination. That gives him the potential to create a populist challenge to Bush … "

"Of course, it's quite possible that the White House is disseminating phony concerns about Edwards because it is really worried about another candidate, such as Kerry, with his potential access to the Heinz fortune."

"But Edwards's nascent campaign is using the White House attention as a selling point."

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire Democratic party sent a letter to state and federal investigators asking them to probe the phone-bank jamming admitted to by a Republican firm hired by the state GOP. LINK

Seth Gitell told the Manchester Union Leader he stands by his report that the Gore campaign organized a traffic-jamming caravan on primary day, and that he'll write more about this later in the week

"A coalition of New Hampshire organizations will hold events next month to draw attention to the plight of the millions of Americans, including an estimated 119,000 state residents, who lack health insurance," the Manchester Union Leader reports. LINK

Lieberman

Continuing the staff rollout, the Lieberman campaign has signed up Ted Osthelder as its Iowa state director. Osthelder most recently served as operations director for Bill Richardson's successful gubernatorial campaign in New Mexico. He was the executive director of the Wisconsin Democratic party in 1996, ran Rep. Adam Schiff's first run for Congress against Jim Rogan, which shattered House race fundraising and spending records, and ran a mayoral campaign in Los Angeles.

You may Notice: no mention of any Iowa experience.

The Des Moines Register writes up the campaign's emphasis on Osthelder's substantial retail political experience: LINK

Lieberman huddled with AFL-CIO President John Sweeney and a group of union presidents for two hours yesterday over steak or salmon at the Phoenix Park Hotel. Per one source who was present, who described the meeting as constructive to positive, they discussed the economy, health care, retirement security and the presidential campaign.

David Lightman contrasts Lieberman's war views with those of Rep. John Larsen, Democrat of Connecticut, who represents Hartford. LINK

Graham

Senator Bob Graham is determined to run for the presidency and will soon establish a fundraising committee, his friends and advisers tell ABCNEWS.

From his son-in-law's Virginia home, where he's recovering from heart surgery, Graham is said to be making at least a half-dozen phone calls a day to potential donors and campaign advisers.

At this point, he expects to make his announcement by March 1. But if the war starts or domestic news eclipses news coverage of the presidential race, his advisers think he'd be able to wait until mid-April to enter.

Graham adviser Buddy Shorstein said he's heard "anecdotal" evidence that the other presidential candidates are having trouble raising money from Florida donors, perhaps as a consequence of Graham's indecision. Some of the those money mavens are presumably holding out for their home-state Senator.

The St. Pete Times reports that Graham has talked to Donnie Fowler: "Graham has been talking to potential campaign staffers, including Donnie Fowler, Al Gore's former field director. Fowler, who has not committed to a campaign, met with Graham the day before the surgery." LINK

"Graham's late start will require that he work harder than the others to court fundraisers, but Fowler said he's not too late. He said Graham's gubernatorial experience and Florida base make him a contender."

"'If the Democrats can't force George Bush to compete in some of the Southern states, meaning spend time and money, it's going to be very, very hard if not impossible to win the White House back. Bob Graham is as competitive among the Democrats for Southern votes as anybody,' Fowler said."

South Carolina

If Donnie's father, former DNC chairman and Richland County, SC party chair Don Fowler, has his way, South Carolina Democrats will stage a stellar presidential primary. He wrote a letter to thousands of them: "Even before May, we must begin preparing for our 2004 Presidential Primary, a huge, costly undertaking. Throughout the year we must be diligent in raising money for the Party, a task that will be even more essential and difficult without a Democratic governor. This will require a very different approach involving smaller contributions from many people; we can no longer count on enormous checks from just a few donors. The Party and its officials will be more important than ever in articulating a message and providing a focus of effective political activity. All of us have a responsibility to help with these tasks."

Hart

Spotted with a pretty good seat at the Gary Hart foreign policy speech in San Francisco last night: Kathy Bushkin.

The crowd around Hart after the speech prevented us from asking him what he meant by this: "We must not let our role in the world be dictated … by Americans who too often find it hard to distinguish their loyalties to their original homelands from their loyalties to America and its national interests."

But we hope to find out today.

Sharpton

The Register asked the Rev. Al Sharpton whether he'd take the state seriously. "[T]he outspoken New York civil rights activist would not say Monday whether he planned to hire an Iowa campaign staff, as Jackson did, or pay for a detailed voter information list the party sells. Those are two steps that indicate a candidate is planning a serious caucus challenge." LINK

"Sharpton met with state party officials and labor activists Monday, the first day of a two-day visit. He also spoke to students at Des Moines Area Community College's Des Moines campus and attended a rally at Union Baptist Church. His visit continues today."

"[Jesse] Jackson's efforts to incorporate the plight of farmers into his Rainbow Coalition won him praise from both pundits and caucus participants."

"Jackson's 1988 caucus co-chairman, Jay Howe of Greenfield, said he was attracted in 1987 by Jackson's appeal to Iowa farmers who were in the throes of the decade's farm crisis."

"'For one thing, I don't know what Sharpton's track record on farm policy is,' Howe said when asked about the 2004 candidate. 'Jackson took a very strong position in line with our positions on farm policy.'"

"Sharpton said Monday he doesn't yet have a formal farm policy, but he expects to offer 'a progressive farm agenda in Iowa' as early as next month. He said he believes the last farm bill helped larger farmers at the expense of small ones."

Mike Glover adds this graph: "Rep. Wayne Ford, D-Des Moines, one of few black lawmakers in the Iowa Legislature and a Jackson supporter, said Sharpton will be dogged by a long list of controversies in which he's been involved." LINK

"'He can rouse the people but he has a lot of baggage,' said Ford, who has not picked a candidate."

Politics

That Mikulski crabcakes thing really scared us, too (not to mention when Judy went to the beach … ). LINK

In his syndicated column, Frank Gaffney blasts back at Grover Norquist. LINK

The FPOTUS, in Boston last night, endorsed the Bush Administration's new AIDS spending proposal. "But Clinton cautioned that the specialists listening to him must not consider the boost in spending a fait accompli. Instead, he said, they must fight to ensure that Congress commits to the increase, while preventing politics from intruding on decisions about health care." LINK

Spotted at the Cynthia Steffe show during this Fashion Week: a seat reserved for one Emily Pataki. Unclear whether or not she showed.

EJ Dionne takes after Tom DeLay over that disavowed letter: LINK

The Washington Post front-pages its update on the University of Michigan affirmative action cases, pointing out that the school has lined up support from a variety of corporate, labor, and other heavyweight interests, while just "13 briefs that have been filed on behalf of the white students. Other than the brief filed by the Bush administration and another filed by the state of Florida and Gov. Jeb Bush (R), they were backed mainly by relatively small conservative public-interest groups." LINK

Texas Gov. Rick Perry will give his State of the State address today at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

Dana Milbank points out that Bush's speech to the religious broadcasters yesterday was "a strikingly religious address even for a president long comfortable with such speech," and adds that "[i]n a series of speeches — a pair of remembrances for the Columbia victims, last week's National Prayer Breakfast and today's address to the religious broadcasters — Bush has far more openly embraced Christian theology." LINK

"The growing emphasis on religious discourse has gone largely unchallenged by Democrats and the press," notes the Washington Times ' Sammon, who ties the shift to the "increasingly imminent" war with Iraq. "That is a major change from a few years ago, when Mr. Bush was widely criticized for mentioning Jesus Christ as his favorite philosopher in a debate during the presidential campaign." LINK

Media

Mr. Meislen and Mr. Redburn, promoted, New York Times . LINK