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Even with all its tight control; its frequent up-is-down/black-is-white public spinning; and its leader who believes (and The Note admires him for it, particularly on days we publish at 10:30 am ET) that late is rude — even with all that, sometimes the administration of 43 seems to be animated by the perils-of-Pauline chaos that so characterized the administration of 42. LINK

White House chaos can be the inevitable product of tough national and international situations, or of trying to solve tough problems that previous presidents have left behind. But chaos can also set in when a president AVOIDS tough problems, annoying constituencies on one or more sides of an issue.

And the combination of chaos and enemies (short- or long-term) can make an incumbent president (even one with still-high poll ratings) seem more vulnerable than he really is.

Is President Bush still the 800-pound gorilla of American and world politics? Yes.

Can he still command extraordinary network road-blocked coverage for "major" speeches, even during the normally sacrosanct primetime "access" period? Yes.

Is he still a heavy favorite to be re-elected if he chooses to run again? Yes.

But are a balky legislative agenda; an impending war; rising gas prices serving as a hitting-home metaphor for a weak economy; and a host of other problems making it seem, more days than not, like the Bush Administration is having a tough go of it politically and substantively?

Yes to all of THAT, too.

What most distinguishes this government from the Clinton Administration is that when the Man from Hope was testing the limits of the chaos theory and/or making enemies at home and abroad, his White House team was open — probably too open for its own good — about admitting it.

Of course, the press corps tends to emphasize conflict and chaos with every president, and play up statements from foreign leaders and members of Congress that reflect those two "C" thematics, every chance it gets.

So while the president's "problems" might turn out to be just one big mirage eventually, a romp through the front-end of this news cycle just might suggest otherwise.

Before we get to that, we'll remind you that anywhere from three to four of the people who want to replace President Bush in January 2005 are planning to speak at the Center of the Universe Holiday Inn in Manchester, NH tonight.

Senator Joseph Lieberman, Rev. Al Sharpton, former Gov. Howard Dean and former Amb. Carol Moseley Braun expect to address several hundred New Hampshire Democrats at the state party's annual "100 Club" dinner.

Initially a New Hampshire moo-call of sorts, it transmogrified into a less formal gathering largely because a few of the biggies, including Senators Kerry and Edwards and Congressman Gephardt, won't attend. Congressman Kucinich, former Senator Hart, Senator Biden, and retired General Clark also will be absent.

There's a private reception at 5:30 p.m., followed by the dinner, which begins at 7:00 p.m..

As for the Men Who Won't Be There: none of them seem to have an excused absence on par with their wife getting some big award from Southern Methodist University.

Far be it for us to try to stir up trouble between those who cling to their First-in-the-Nation Birthright, and those whose presidential aspirations will rise or fall on the love (or lack thereof) that they get from Granite Staters, but how, exactly, is it that these cats are skipping the dinner, seemingly cost-free?

Particularly at the very time the primary is under siege from Michigan, and only one candidate (Mr. Gephardt) seems to have already pledged fidelity to New Hampshire.

One big skipper, meta front-runner (and Massachusetts Senator) John Kerry, at least had the courtesy to be about 3,000 miles away from Manchester yesterday, as he returned to the campaign trail, following his prostate surgery, in a pretty low-key manner. Today, Kerry does his first public event in weeks, a big environmental speech. (See "Invisible Primary" below for full coverage of that.)

At least one of the Absent Candidates, Gephardt, rolled out lists of New Hampshire supporters in advance of the dinner, and we expect more to do that within this news cycle, including some very key Lieberman pickups.

Gephardt offered New Hampshire Democrats the same courtesy as Kerry, and is also 3,000 miles away, fundraising in northern California.

The Union-Leader's DiStaso leads off his 100 Club coverage with the news, plucked from some rag called "The Note" (thanks, John) that Senator Edwards won't be coming.

As for Lieberman, he'll be there, come hell or high water, but not high snow or an Estrada vote. The former is possible, the latter improbable, and one Note writer made it to work in DC without getting snow in his tousled hair.

Lieberman spokesman Jano Cabrera told us this morning that the Senator will fly to New Hampshire this afternoon. The Note reported erroneously yesterday that Lieberman planned to not attend the dinner, and The Note regrets the error.

All those who do show up to speak will surely feel at least somewhat emboldened to go after the president on all sorts of things, and they might just be able to pull a Greg Mueller and rip some of their verbiage straight from the day's papers, which, as Greg knew, is cheaper than hiring a team of speechwriters. LINK

In cataloguing Mr. Bush's problems (2/27/03 edition), we are going beyond Al Hunt's Wall Street Journal column, which makes the now familiar argument that "the administration is tone deaf when it comes to opinion" overseas.

And we are going beyond the longtime US diplomat who is giving up his job in the Athens embassy through the New York Times to protest America's Iraq policy. LINK

No, right here at home, the president SEEMS to have the following inter-personal problems today:
-- congressional Republicans are rankled because of presidential criticism of the way they are allocating homeland security spending;
-- (other) congressional Republicans are unhappy with the president's spending plans;
-- (still other) congressional Republicans are unhappy with the president's tax cutting plans; and
-- labor leaders, including some who have received mucho presidential courting, are cross with the Gentle Lady from Kentucky, also known as Labor Secretary Chao.

Now, the cooler heads in the White House don't worry about all this too much. They, like The Note, focus on the big picture.

We'll say it again: if any war with Iraq goes OK; if the president gets his budget through mostly intact; and if the economy is better by the spring of 2004, all this Katzenjammer Kids drama won't really matter. LINK

Of course, didn't Karl Rove recently promise his friends on the Hill that the president would NOT triangulate?

In a mind-blowing New York Times story, Phil Shenon says, "Responding to criticism from Democrats and to the mounting concern of state and local governments, the White House is now saying that the long delayed government spending plan for the year does not provide enough money to protect against terrorist attacks on American soil." LINK

"After initially praising the giant spending package that was shaped by Congressional Republicans, the White House has reversed itself in recent days … "

"The president's remarks [this week] … have infuriated Republicans in Congress, who say they closely consulted with the White House in preparing the spending deal … "

"Aides to Republican leaders said they would not publicly respond to Mr. Bush for now. But the aides accused the White House of bowing to pressure from Congressional Democrats, including likely presidential candidates, who have charged that Mr. Bush is putting the nation at risk by spending too little on domestic security … "

"Spokesmen for two major Republican authors of the spending bill — Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and C. W. Bill Young of Florida, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee — said they had no comment on Mr. Bush's criticism … "

"A Republican Congressional aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Republicans were angry over the efforts of the White House to distance itself from the domestic-security provisions of the spending bill."

Yesterday's Wall Street Journal story about the alleged cost estimates of a possible war with Iraq sent the Democrats into Big Casino overdrive, and, apparently, got Republican eyes (if not mouths) moving as well.

Per the Washington Post 's Allen and Weisman (those cats make such beautiful prose together): "The rising estimates opened a new line of attack for Democrats, who plan to use a war's effect on the budget deficit as a further reason to oppose the president's new tax cut proposals. Conservatives, meanwhile, fretted anew about the administration's appetite for spending … " LINK

"Even some conservative Republicans are growing restive in the face of the rising war cost estimates and the burgeoning deficits. The House conservatives' Republican Study Committee circulated a pointed, one-page document yesterday contrasting Bush's budgetary response to budget deficits to the responses of Ronald Reagan in 1982 and of congressional Republicans in 1996 and 1997."

"Their conclusion? Reagan proposed nondefense spending over three years that was $226 billion less than it would have been had it merely kept pace with inflation. The five-year budget resolutions passed by Republicans in 1996 and 1997 cut nondefense spending subject to Congress's annual oversight by $123 billion and $105 billion, respectively. In contrast, Bush's 2004 budget allows nondefense discretionary spending to rise by $16 billion over inflation through 2008."

Pegged to today's expected introduction in the House (by the lovable Bill Thomas) and in the Senate (by the Oklahoman Don Nickles) of the president's tax and budget plan, the The Wall Street Journal takes the temperature of how things are going with that dirtiest of all possible phrases (at least in some quarters) — "moderate Senate Republicans."

With "the most vulnerable piece of the Bush economic package" still "its proposal to make dividends tax-free for stockholders," "Congress will soon begin debating a fiscal year 2004 budget, a process that will magnify the growing deficit and could well damp enthusiasm for further tax cuts. That's because Congress will try to squeeze in other big-ticket items, including a Medicare drug benefit and additional defense and homeland-security spending."

"Some Republican leaders want to craft a budget that looks ahead five years, rather than the 10-year forecasts that became popular in the era of surpluses. A five-year plan would be more accurate, Republicans argue; it also would make Mr. Bush's tax cuts look less steep. But that would invite Democratic attacks that Republicans are trying to cover up long-term costs."

And this sounds suspiciously like a veritable Tour of Triangulation: "In a bit of political hardball that has surprised some GOP lawmakers, administration officials are planning a barnstorming campaign for President Bush's $674 billion tax-cut plan by targeting the home states of Congressional Republicans who have been openly skeptical of the plan. Administration officials said they hope the effort on the part of Bush's economic team will help create public pressure on wavering Members and create more votes for the proposal, which many deficit-conscious Republicans have criticized as too costly and inadequate as a quick stimulus for the economy," Roll Call reports.

"But many targeted GOP lawmakers, such as Senator George Voinovich (Ohio), said the plan — which is reminiscent of the tactics successfully used by the White House against Democrats in the 2002 midterm elections — is misguided and ultimately will not change their decision on whether to support the president's tax plan. 'They're making a big mistake,' said Voinovich, whose state has been identified by the administration as a target because of the Senator's opposition to Bush's nearly $370 billion proposal to eliminate the double taxation of dividends."

And it doesn't appear that the administration is making friends in the House of Labor.

Still refusing to say goodbye to Hollywood, the New York Times ' definitive Steven Greenhouse says, "Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao ignited a furor today among labor leaders, including the administration's strongest friend in labor, the teamster president James P. Hoffa, when she cited repeated examples of union corruption while addressing the A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s winter meeting." LINK

"Mr. Hoffa criticized Secretary Chao and said labor should back a presidential candidate who understands working people, causing many union leaders to say Mr. Hoffa was distancing himself from the president."

"Mr. Hoffa complained that the Bush administration was veering further to the right, and one of his top aides said the secretary's remarks were only the latest of several antilabor actions committed by the administration."

"Secretary Chao stunned more than 100 labor leaders when, in a response to a question about greater financial disclosure, she read aloud for several minutes about seven criminal cases involving officials from the machinists' union. She brought to the meeting a dossier detailing union-related crimes and she read from it after Thomas Buffenbarger, the machinists' president, asked her why the Bush administration was proposing far stricter financial disclosure rules for labor unions … ."

"Mr. Buffenbarger … said he was taken aback when Ms. Chao, in responding to his question, read details of seven cases of financial malfeasance by officials from his union."

"'I felt a little appalled that a labor secretary would come to the meeting prepared to attack the labor movement,' he said. 'She came prepared with her book of sins. It's like Satan at the gates of hell.'"

This, after the White House has put in all that stroking time and effort with Mr. Hoffa …

And the labor movement just might be able to turn all that anger into a political force with which to be reckoned.

Bush political advisers regularly heap praise on the organizational skills of Michael Whouley and Donna Brazile, but they tend to underestimate the just-departed AFL-CIO political director Steve Rosenthal, who makes more than a cameo in Tom Edsall's Washington Post story today: "Union leaders meeting here have agreed to pour at least $20 million into a new political operation to mobilize nonunion voters — especially blacks, Latinos and women — in an effort to defeat President Bush in 2004." LINK

See "Politics" below for more from this must-read Edsall story.

Hubbard/Mankiw

With the earlier Lindsey and O'Neill departures having burst the bubble of "no exit," last night's announcement of Council of Economic Chair Glenn Hubbard's departure isn't shaking up Washington the way it might have at an earlier time.

Of course, it helped that the White House had genius Harvard professor N. Gregory Mankiw ready to be announced as Hubbard's successor.

The political press will ALWAYS ratchet down the degree to which departure stories are cast as "Administration in disarray" stories in instances in which the replacement person is named simultaneously, if only because a certain amount of the column inches and airtime is devoted to the bio of the successor, but also because, well, having the next person lined up actually suggests less disarray.

In addition, since the White House crammed in the announcement in the tiny little time window between the end of the network news on the East Coast and the president's widely covered AEI speech, it's almost amazing that anyone noticed.

And, as the Washington Post points out, "Hubbard's announcement and Mankiw's nomination have been expected since last month," and as John King taught us back in the '90s (we say again) the first three letters of "news" are "n," "e," and "w." LINK

The Harvard Crimson's Blenkinsopp (keep your collective eyes on this fella ( LINK ) also Notes that Mankiw's Harvard colleagues have known about the impending announcement for weeks. LINK

And the New York Times says:" … [T]he White House is in somewhat better shape now. John W. Snow, who took over as Treasury secretary two weeks ago, has quickly jumped in as a forceful new salesman for Mr. Bush's $674 billion tax-cutting plan. Stephen Friedman, a former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, has succeeded Mr. Lindsey at the National Economic Council." H LINK

"People who know Mr. Mankiw say he may prove to be more acerbic and perhaps more outspoken than Mr. Hubbard. But he may also be less wedded to ideological consistency, which Mr. Bush usually demands from the people beneath him."

The Washington Post 's Weisman also says Mankiw, is expected to "take a deliberately low profile as the 'inside man' on the economic team, according to a Republican source." LINK

And Note, Mr. Mankiw, since you have written some less-than-flattering things about Mr. Andrea Mitchell in the past: the Washington Post 's business section blaringly headlines today: "Greenspan Remains Popular in Congress." LINK

Big Casino/budget politics

House Speaker Dennis Hastert sat down with the Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman, who is both the paper's nightclub fire reporter AND human truth serum: "During a half-hour interview with the Tribune, Hastert, an Illinois Republican, launched into a lengthy and passionate denunciation of French 'obstreperousness' toward the United States and advocated giving no ground to objections raised by the longtime American ally." LINK

"He also warned that the cost of the war--newly revised Pentagon estimates reportedly place it as high as $95 billion--will prevent Congress from increasing spending for some domestic programs, citing education and health research in particular."

"If you have to pay for guns, you can't pay for all the butter,' Hastert said. 'That's something that we're going to have to deal with.'"

The Washington Post 's Milbank (who, when he wrote for Style, never had juggle this many numbers) writes about the haggling over AmeriCorps funding, a "development (that) has left the White House, Congress and AmeriCorps officials pointing fingers at each other. Democrats say it is another example of the president and his allies failing to back his 'compassion' agenda with funding. They say Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress have also cut funding for housing and after-school programs that the president has promoted, and that Bush's plan for a Citizen Corps of volunteers devoted to homeland security has not advanced." LINK

We admit that we are slavish suckers for ANY story that quotes the very-quotable Trent Duffy, so check this out: "OMB spokesman Trent Duffy said the agency has no choice but to make the bookkeeping change because of what he called 'Enron-like' accounting at AmeriCorps, which registered more volunteers than it had money for in the past. 'Call us crazy, but we feel it's important to operate programs within the law,' Duffy said."

Legislative agenda:

In his Roll Call column, Stu Rothenberg hacks away at the politics of the administration's prescription drug proposal: "The problem for the president is that Medicare reform and prescription drugs aren't just any issues. They are the heart of Bush's "compassionate" agenda for his 2004 re-election campaign. Just as Bush wooed conservatives with his call for tax cuts and moderates with his emphasis on education during the 2000 campaign, he clearly hoped to use his tax cut and prescription drug proposals to reach both groups of voters, as well as seniors, during his campaign for re-election."

"Some political allies of Bush believe that he will ultimately fall back on a tactic that he has used repeatedly and with great success in the past, both in Austin and the nation's capital. They foresee him backing off his own proposal and inviting — indeed urging — Congress to come up with its own Medicare legislation that would include a prescription drug benefit for seniors. If he likes the results, he would embrace the new plan as his own, taking credit for solving a problem that only a few years ago seemed intractable."

"The problem for the White House is that both Medicare reform and prescription drug coverage for seniors are likely to get caught up in the developing presidential election, with the two political parties spending more time pointing fingers at each other than working on resolving fundamental differences."

Elsewhere in Roll Call , a veritable Army Captain disses both dynamic and static scoring.

Hundreds of thousands of people opposed to war in Iraq bombarded the Senate and the White House with phone calls, e-mails and faxes in what supporters called a "virtual march" on Washington yesterday, reports ABCNEWS' Ed O'Keefe. Congressional phones were jammed all day as offices reported upward of 2,500 calls. One Senator reported getting 18 times more e-mails than normal.

If nothing else, the protestors managed to overload the Senate's Verizon-wired switchboard and produce record Excedrin sales near the apartments and/or dorms of phone room staffers …

… who didn't even get their popcorn as Popcorn Factory treats FedEx'd to suffering staffers on behalf of MoveOn.org groups weren't allowed to be delivered … they couldn't/wouldn't pass security: LINK >

On a kindly note courtesy of MoveOn.org:

"Dear Staff,

We know the Virtual March has placed a burden on you. Thanks from your constituents & country — from MoveOn.org & Win Without War Coalition."

Bush judicial nominees:

The Los Angeles Times ' Hook writes that the Estrada fight has become a proxy war over the loyalties of Latino Democrats. LINK The New York Times ' Hulse does one of the more thoughtful and balanced pieces yet on the Estrada fight, looking at the current state of play, but also trying to get at the politics of which side is winning so far. LINK

Hulse courageously adopts an "only time will tell" posture throughout, although the piece is decidedly more bullish on the GOP prospects for gains with Hispanics by continuing the fight than most of the dominant media has been. (As Rush would tell you: don't say "mainstream," say "dominant.")

Those Republicans who have been critical in the past of the party's pre-Bush communications efforts can't help but be pleased at the coordinated effort between the White House and the party on the Hill to coalition-build and Hispanic-media-outreach on this, but, as (belated) birthday boy Bob Novak says and writes regularly, it still isn't clear what the Republican end game on this shall be.

Speaking of Novak, he writes yet another column on Estrada. LINK

Novak writes about some notion of Senator Kennedy's "secret" plan to block Bush judges (seems pretty open to us), and then becomes part of the conservative movement's effort to re-write history, and erase any record of the aggressive job the Republicans did to thwart all sorts of Clinton judicial nominees, as if Democrats were the ones who started it all.

The Washington Times ' Curl has a testy piece about President Bush's frustration over the "'travesty'" of the delay of the Estrada nomination. Curl also quotes a fretful Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle: "'As this economy worsens, we spend our time on the floor totally consumed with one nomination having to do with a circuit court nominee for the District of Columbia.'" LINK

The Washington Post 's lobbying column looks at the Estrada ad wars, without asking any serious questions about how big these media buys actually are. LINK

Some of these efforts are surely just tokenly-run video press releases …

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

USA Today 's Susan Page notes the challenges of a large Democratic field. Among them, for example (aside from all the political media and late-night TV jokes about it): Howard Dean's position as the only viable current anti-war candidate being threatened by the filing of Senator Bob Graham, and a battle amongst all of them for media attention:

"Many news organizations will be stretched to cover all the candidates. 'The challenges now aren't all that great, because they don't tend to be in town on the same day,' says Jennifer Crompton, news director at WMUR in Manchester, N.H. It's the most powerful TV station in the state where the first primary will be held in January. 'Any challenges tend to be at the end of the year, when they're all visiting simultaneously. Then it can be a mad scramble.'" LINK

"What's more, the more established contenders are less likely to agree to the debates that have been a prime platform for challengers in the past. With so many candidates, they reason, debates threaten to become free-for-alls. Sponsors who try to limit participation to 'major' candidates are sure to face protests from those who are excluded."

Deborah Orin gives her thumbnail view of how Iraq might shake up the Democratic field, and takes a pro forma (for her) shot at the Junior Senator from New York along the way. LINK

The Hotline's Chuck Todd plays Go Fish, trying to match up the 2004 presidential campaign with one from recent history. Despite similarities between the way this race is shaping up and the contests of 1992, 1988, 1984 and 1976, Todd decides it most resembles 1972, and likens Kerry to Ed Muskie.

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC 100 CLUB DINNER

The speaking order of 100 Club appears to be in alphabetical order.

As for Edwards' cancellation, DiStaso says: "Edwards spokesman Jennifer Palmieri said, "When we accepted, we said we'd try to make it based on Senate business and what not." The Senate does have a floor vote slated on funding resolutions. Edwards' New Hampshire adviser Caroline McCarley said the decision was made Tuesday. She said she left messages with dinner chair Sophia Collier and party chair Kathy Sullivan (who's on vacation this week and won't attend)." LINK

"'I'm disappointed,' McCarley admitted. 'But we are all really sensitive to him missing votes. And we all understand here that this is part of what he is going to do.' While backers of other camps quietly wonder if there's a broader signal here that the North Carolinian's interest in Kerry and Dean's neighboring state may be waning, Edwards' folks say he's committed as ever to New Hampshire."

KERRY

An apparently feeling-fine Senator John Kerry will address the Orange County Democrats Foundation in Anaheim today, amidst his fundraising stops. Per his staff and an advance copy of his remarks, Kerry will:
-- open by saying he's "doing great;"
-- make yet another reference — as many of the candidates are — to duct tape and plastic sheeting as a means of criticizing/belittling President Bush's efforts on homeland security;
-- say he's gotten to spend a lot of time watching TV lately, and it's all bad news under the Bush Administration;
-- refer to the GOP charge that former Senator Max Cleland was not patriotic, to stir up vets' emotions;
-- call on President Bush to have the federal government buy back 36 undeveloped oil leases, like he did for his brother the Governor of Florida; and
-- charge that Bush has ignored the Golden State.

And the speech will feature these new Kerry lines, coming soon to speeches and campaign events near you: "There are big differences between us. Pretty simple differences. George Bush wants every American to look at their country and ask, what's in it for me? I want Americans to start asking again, what's in it for us?"

And "phooey!," or, we should say, "the opposite of 'phooey!,'" as American political journalism gets back one of our beloved leaders.

Writing under the ever-so-classy "San Francisco" dateline, former CNNer Beth Fouhy curtain-raises the speech her own self. LINK

Her lead? "In a nod to environmentalists trying to halt new oil drilling off the California coast, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is expected to call Thursday for President Bush to buy back 36 disputed coastal leases in order to prohibit new oil and gas develop.m.ent."

"The Bush administration purchased and retired several leases off the Florida coast last year, where the president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, was in a tough race for re-election."

And Beth apparently still knows how to use that White House switchboard: "White House officials, reached after business hours Wednesday, said no one was immediately available to discuss the issue."

Glen Johnson is back on the case, as is Senator Kerry.

The two men returned to the campaign trail following the latter's two weeks of recuperating from prostate cancer surgery. LINK

The ever-observant Johnson, having worked his way yet again into the history books with the first post-op interview, writes: "Looking tan from a secret trip to what aides would only say was 'an undisclosed warm-weather location,' the Massachusetts Democrat walked gingerly but otherwise looked fit following a closed-door appearance before entertainment executives at the Fox studios."

Johnson writes that the famously vigorous Senator, who was still wearing his hospital bracelet adorned with photos of his wife and children, now requires time to rest between events, and takes the opportunity to stretch out en route in his wife's private jet (the Mrs. is on the trip).

Johnson points out, however, that recovery usually lasts six weeks, and quotes Kerry's outlook: "'The doctor said it was amazing. He thinks I'm doing great … 'They're having to restrain me."'

Although Kerry missed some key events over the last fortnight, Johnson has him making up for lost time, scooping up former Gore supporters in Los Angeles with a 400-person fundraiser hosted by Richard and Daphna Ziman, and attending "an event before a largely black audience at the Beverly Hills home of Tracey and Kenneth 'Babyface' Edmonds."

Those of you who want fresh Kerry pix, but don't want to chase him all over the West: Glen informs the world that the Senator plans to be back on the Hill on Monday.

But the big news, to both Note readers and Kerry himself, apparently, is the signing of his good-luck charm Bob Shrum.

Johnson writes: "The senator then ticked through his recent schedule, including what he considered the most prominent event — the signing of political consultant Robert M. Shrum to his media team. 'Last week I managed to close the deal on my media team, which I wanted and put together, a team that I think is first-rate,' Kerry said. 'And I got a lot of commitments from people out in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other places, and was on the phone with the DNC. I think we did well."'

Kerry's return merits a paragraph's worth of AP material in the New York Times . LINK

As best we can find, no California papers covered the Kerry day, with only one or two running the AP wire.

Dan Balz really, really tries to get to the bottom of what happened in the Archie-Reggie-and-Veronica saga that was the Kerry-Edwards-and-Shrum mating dance over the last few months. LINK

Nailing the continuing buzz in our world that raged yesterday, and focusing on the just-below-the-surface sniping between the two campaigns, Balz refocused his mind from his time with Joe Lieberman at the Council on Foreign Relations to write this: "The not-altogether-clear story of how Bob Shrum and partners Tad Devine and Mike Donilon came to work for Kerry's campaign no doubt holds little interest to the world at large, but it was closely followed and much discussed yesterday inside the often-insular world of political consultants and campaign strategists … "

"If nothing else, the 'Shrum primary' … serves as a metaphor for the intense and growing competition among the Democratic presidential campaigns at a time in the political cycle when relatively small things — personnel moves, a new poll or a favorable column — can take on an outsized significance."

"By the end of the day, Edwards's advisers were suggesting that they had 'won' the Shrum primary and that Kerry's campaign would trade long-term problems for a few days of good press. They also claimed, in a not-so-complimentary way, that the Kerry campaign was beginning to take on the appearance of Al Gore's consultant-laden operation of 2000, a campaign in which Shrum and his partners played a central role. Kerry advisers said the Edwards team risked making enemies for no good reason … "

"Edwards's advisers painted Shrum as a potentially disruptive force and said that he and his partners wanted significant control over the campaign's operations and that Edwards 'wasn't willing to completely relinquish control of message, campaign budget, press decisions to consultants.' The North Carolinian had offered Shrum a more limited role 'knowing that it was unlikely that it was going to be accepted,' an Edwards adviser said."

Dan gets some not-very-illuminating Shrum quotes on the record (which is better than we could do!), and implicitly Notes the relative radio silence of the gracious, winning(?) Kerry side.

And he saves for his very last paragraph the very thing insiders have been buzzing about in the last 48 hours: "Democrats not associated with either campaign said Shrum and (Kerry campaign manager Jim) Jordan have had a prickly relationship in the past, but both men said they are glad to be part of the same team and are eager to work together. Said Shrum, 'I think Jim Jordan is doing a superb job.'"

And now here's the real news about Bob Shrum: the New York Daily News has him selling his DC home, and lunching and wining with Ruth Reichl. LINK

And one of our professional heroes tells us that Shrum is slated to be on "Capital Report" on CNBC tonight at 9:00 p.m.. LINK

And there is STILL no Shrum stuff on E-bay.

iOWA

IOWA Former President George HW Bush will speak at Coe College in Cedar Rapids tonight. He is expected to take questions from the audience.

Campaign headquarter addresses in Iowa!! (See end of article.) LINK

Somebody plot them on Map Quest for us, please.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

One of our favorite Granite State source Notes that Howard Dean doesn't seem to be scooping up all the liberal legislators: new Kerry supporter Below was one of only two state Senators to support Bill Bradley in 2000, and liberal state Rep. Susan Almy, another Bradley supporter, is also likely to go with Kerry, whereas "progressive" state Rep. Jack Pratt is going with Gephardt.

DiStaso says not to "push the panic button--yet" about the possibility that Michigan will sully up New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation advantage.

And/but Kevin Landrigan reports that "New Hampshire Democratic leaders are mobilizing to try to stop an effort by a Michigan senator to schedule that state's nominating caucus on the same day as this state's first-in-the-nation primary."

'It's of great concern to us,' state Democratic Party Vice Chairman Raymond Buckley said Wednesday about the proposal by U.S. Senator Carl Levin, D-Mich."

"'We are going to try to do whatever we can as quickly as possible to discourage such action on Michigan's part . . . It could set off a whole long list of things to happen.'" LINK

The latest American Research Group NH numbers, just for fun: Kerry: 23 percent; Dean: 16 percent; Gephardt: 15 percent; Lieberman: 10 percent.

ARIZONA

Arizona's Democratic party is talking up their proposed February 3, 2004 primary. LINK

GEPHARDT

A guest column in Roll Call reminds the world, as if it needs reminding, that it's tough to leap from the House to the Presidency.

"Should Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) succeed in becoming president in 2004, he would be the first sitting Member of the House of Representatives to jump directly to the White House since Rep. James Garfield (R-Ohio) in 1880, more than 120 years ago," writes Kenneth Ackerman.

"In fact, other than Garfield, he would be the only one to do so. The problem isn't Gephardt's alone. Senators have done little better over the years; Only two have made the direct presidential jump, Sens. John F. Kennedy (D-Mass.) in 1960 and Warren G. Harding (R-Ohio) in 1920."

Today, the House takes up legislation by Congressmen Weldon and Stupak to categorically ban all human cloning.

Pro-life groups and anti-cloning Republicans are circulating a dear colleague letter quoting Gephardt as saying this on a "Meet" appearance on August 19, 2001: "Obviously, we don't want cloning … . We passed a law saying no cloning, and that's the law we ought to follow."

At the same time, Gephardt voted against the 2001 version of Weldon-Stupak. So he's accused of using the royal "we" to paper over his political disagreements.

And so there's pressure on him to vote in favor of Weldon-Stupak, since he appears to have supported the content of the law shortly after he voted against the letter of the law.

GRAHAM

Senator Bob Graham is expected to file papers with the Federal Election Commission today, bringing the Democratic field to a baseball-team nine.

USA Today 's Susan Page looks at how Graham might change certain race dynamics: "The burgeoning field is forcing some candidates to adjust strategy. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean, for instance, pitched himself until recently as the only governor and the only antiwar candidate in the race. But Graham's entry into the race will eliminate some of Dean's distinctiveness. Graham is also a former governor — of a much bigger state than Vermont — and he voted against the congressional resolution authorizing Bush to use force against Iraq. Anti-war candidates Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and Al Sharpton also have entered the race in recent weeks." LINK

"Graham 'will be an obvious, clear favorite in the primary for Florida,' said North Carolina Senator John Edwards, a competing candidate for president." LINK

Senator Bob Graham seems to be becoming an increasingly key Democrat on Estrada. We're not sure what we'll do-his mind was not made up as of late yesterday-or when he'll do it-though probably not this week.

LIEBERMAN

Lieberman has a full schedule in New Hampshire, beyond the dinner. He is scheduled to hit Manchester in the mid-afternoon, with his first scheduled public event being an appearance at a pre-100 Club, state Democratic party reception.

On Friday, Lieberman will attend a coffee reception, then tour a local plant. At lunchtime he'll appear at a get-out-the-vote event and campaign with special House race candidate Tom Katsiantonis at Grand Slam Pizza in Manchester before heading out of state.

He also nabbed one two of the state's most powerful Democrats, according to the Manchester Union-Leader's DiStaso: "The Status has learned that Dick and Katrina Swett will formally sign on with Lieberman today. With the exception of the Shaheens -former Gov. Jeanne and husband Bill — the Swetts are the biggest names in New Hampshire Democratic politics. And since Jeanne has not yet endorsed anyone (while Bill quietly signed on with John Kerry several weeks ago), the Swett duo takes on added significance. Only Shaheen has had more success in state Democratic politics in recent years than Dick Swett, and although Katrina lost her recent congressional bid, her knowledge of state politics and organizational skills are well-known."

"Katrina Swett will be one of Lieberman's handful of national co-chairs." LINK

Lieberman's speech before the Council on Foreign Relations gets very respectful treatment from Mr. Dan Balz in the Washington Post . LINK

The Los Angeles Times ' Chen writes that "[i]n answering questions after his speech, Lieberman chided Bush for having failed, in his view, to make a more compelling case for war — a shortcoming that he said was 'by and large' responsible for the recent worldwide antiwar demonstrations." LINK

MOSELEY BRAUN

Why does the press hyphenate Moseley-Braun when she does not? LINK

Should we all agree to stop?

EDWARDS

If the Edwards campaign was as comprehensive (read: "in-box clogging") as the Lieberman campaign is, we all would have gotten Dana Milbank's AmeriCorps by e-mail from the meta-919 area code, since the Tar Heel State's senior senator makes a small cameo." LINK

BIDEN

Senator Joseph Biden's cancelled-by-blizzard speech on America's role in the world has been rescheduled for Monday, March 3 at New York University.

And a Note to close readers in 221 Russell: "Philadelphia" was, of course, both a metaphor and an historical reference, not a current locale. You can take the boy out of Philly (or Wilmington for that matter), but you can't take the Mid-Atlantic out of the boy …

KUCINICH

The media jumps on "flip flops" because they supposedly represent hypocrisy or political calculation. But name a politician who hasn't changed his or her mind on a major issue — and do any of you out there know anyone who has been singularly consistent on every bedrock value in their life? And what's wrong with someone who is humble enough to admit that they were wrong? Many "flip flops" represent genuine changes of mind. What distinguishes a real flip-flop from a gradual revolution is time and effort: you don't decide to support, say, gay marriage, overnight--if you've been opposed to it for thirty years.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich was, until very recently, pro life. (Recent laudatory profiles cluck-clucked at this: LINK

But he now appears to be pro-choice.

And "Iowa Democrats on both sides of the abortion issue are suspicious of Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich's transformation from abortion opponent to abortion rights supporter," the Des Moines Register reports.

"The Cleveland Democrat said this week the change has nothing to do with his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. He said his position has evolved over the past couple years and is a response to conservatives' push to outlaw abortion."

"'I didn't just turn on a dime in Iowa,' Kucinich said. 'This involved thinking way before I became a candidate for president.'"

"But longtime Cleveland abortion foes say Kucinich's shift has been both dramatic and quick. They say up until about a year ago he voted with the anti-abortion movement's agenda 90 percent of the time since his election in 1994."

"'He's always been a champion of the rights of the unborn," said Molly Smith, executive director of Cleveland Right to Life. 'It alarms me greatly.'"

"Kucinich raised eyebrows among activists on both sides of the abortion issue when he told reporters in Cedar Rapids Feb. 16 that: 'I would say I would be a pro-choice president, but would also work to make abortions less necessary.'" LINK

Will Lester gets Kate Michelman to nod favorably in Kucinich's direction. LINK

Meanwhile, Joshua Micah Marshall digs out Cleveland Magazine articles suggesting that Kucinich's early political career was predicated on reclaiming Cleveland for white ethnics and that his campaign was subtly, though unmistakably, anti-non-white-ethnics. LINK

"Basically, in the early days — before he was running citywide, let alone nationwide — Kucinich's political schtick was posing as the champion of the 'forgotten' white ethnic voters over against the rising force of black political power. Sort of a great white hope type, or great Slavic hope, if you will," writes Marshall.

Not the best of news cycles for Mr. Kucinich.

Perhaps because we always strive for balance here at The Note, here's a link to his snazzy campaign website: LINK

HART

Gary Hart spoke in Charlottesville, VA last night. We couldn't find much coverage of the speech, so we'll provide a paragraph from the prepared text we found interesting: "Throughout my public life, I have been considered by some to be 'cerebral' and, given our experience in recent years, I can understand how such a thing might seem a little strange. I confess to having spent part of a public lifetime trying to find, with the help of very bright minds, new strategies of economic growth and justice that reflect the egalitarian commitment to social justice of the Democratic New Deal but that use the new productivity of the information age to do so. And I have tried to design a new approach to national defense based on profound principles of military reform. I did so, and still do, because the American people must once again see the Democratic Party as the vehicle for social reform, for justice and progress, as well as for progressively securing our nation and our future."

The Denver Post's Washington bureau chief wrote up Hart's speech. LINK

A Bettendorfian urges Hart to get in the race: "Former U.S. Senator Gary Hart of Colorado is of unmistakable presidential moxie. Senator Hart is one of the nation's foremost experts in homeland security, and has been a staunch advocate for a strong U.S. military while still standing firmly with core democrats on environmental and economic issues. In a national race, Gary Hart would run favorably with George W. Bush on the president's strengths and beat him soundly on his weaknesses." LINK

SHARPTON

Before his appearance at the 100 Club fundraiser tonight, the Rev. Al Sharpton will speak at New England College at 4:30 p.m..

His campaign is touting the endorsement of "Reverend T.J. Jemison, the former President of the National Baptist Convention in Baton Rouge, Louisiana."

Politics

More from that very key Washington Post story on labor's big political push: "The initiative, dubbed the Partnership for America's Families, represents a significant expansion of organized labor's campaign to restore its clout in national politics. Unlike traditional union-backed political efforts, such as getting voters to the polls, this one will target liberal and Democratic-leaning voters who don't belong to unions … ."

"The new partnership is the latest example of what is known as a 527 committee, which groups on the left and right are establishing in response to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law that took effect in November. Unlike the national political parties, these committees can raise and spend unlimited amounts of "soft money," which can be used to pay for "issue ads" and get-out-the-vote efforts. Such committees cannot be affiliated with a political party or a federal candidate."

"Running the new partnership will be two of labor's and the Democratic Party's best-known voter-turnout specialists. Steve Rosenthal, former AFL political director, will be the full-time director. Donna Brazile, who has worked for numerous Democratic presidential and statewide campaigns, will be a consultant."

"In the past eight years, Rosenthal developed a program that significantly raised turnout among union members. Brazile, who specializes in mobilizing minority and women's groups, was credited with helping produce a strong black turnout in December's Senate runoff in Louisiana won by Senator Mary Landrieu (D)."

"For labor, the new 527 committee provides a way to capture and use millions of dollars in soft money that once went to the Democratic Party's national, senatorial and House campaign committees. All of them are now prohibited from accepting soft money."

"'Changes in the law have forced us to rethink how we do our business,' said a key player in creating the partnership. After giving millions of dollars to Democratic committees and liberal groups, with 'us begging them to do the right things, now we have the resources to do it ourselves,' the official said. 'Instead of giving the money to some other group and hoping they are going to do the right thing, let's try to set up something closer to us.'"

"Unlike many new 527 committees, the Partnership for America's Families has a ready source of money from the labor movement. If the new partnership succeeds, Rosenthal said, it will move the Democratic Party and its candidates in a more liberal direction … ."

"Rosenthal said the partnership will target key states, such as Ohio, Missouri and Florida. In addition, he said, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado may be targeted in hopes of boosting a pro-Democratic Hispanic turnout."

"The initiative is geared mainly to voter registration and turnout, but Rosenthal said it probably will also involve mail campaigns and possibly television. 'The idea,' he said, 'is to start early and to really expose the inconsistencies of the Bush administration, to very early on define what George Bush is.'"

The Wall Street Journal ed-boards daily diary of rankings of America's governors:

Utah's Mike Leavitt — bad on school choice (for now).

New York's George Pataki — good on taxes and spending (for now).

Roll Call reports that the political parties are stranded in hard-money debt land. "Although debt is a regular fixture at each committee at the end of every cycle following extensive borrowing designed to put a handful of races over the top in the election's final days, strategists — especially on the Democratic side — believe paying off back bills in an all-hard-money world will limit the committees' ability to engage in other crucial early activities."

Roll Call 's article about the California GOP's recall effort against Gov. Gray Davis (D) has this: "Bob Mulholland, a consultant to the California Democratic Party, predicted that no name Democrat would run in a recall election, because Democrats would successfully characterize it as illegitimate. While acknowledging that the recall will probably get on the ballot for the first time in California history, Mulholland said Democrats would use the vote as an opportunity to blame national Republicans, rather than Davis, for the fragile economy."

"Gov. Sonny Perdue has come up with a suggested fix for his referendum on the state flag, and it doesn't include dropping the Confederate battle emblem as one of voters' choices," the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. LINK

"The revision Perdue's office unfurled Wednesday could make it easier for the state's previous flag to return, some lawmakers and others said."

D'Amato and Lucci: Perfect together. Actually, Rao's was busy Monday night: former President Clinton dined with Senator Jon Corzine and former Gov. Tom Kean, while D'Amato and Lucci, at other tables, looked on. LINK

The Washington Post 's highly political Ben White observes that erstwhile politicians are no longer rushing to milk lucrative corporate board positions, in this Enron-addled, bear market. Dick Armey, John Thune, and Tim Hutchinson are amongst those resisting. LINK

It couldn't possibly be true that AOL/CNN/IP stalwart Sasha Johnson is 27 years old today, the 27th of the month, the very day of a big New Hampshire political event.

Or could it?

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

Despite what must be an excellent security set-up, 41 still can find a use for duct tape, when heckled during a speech at Tufts by anti-war protesters. The former president and First Father defended his administration's own Iraq issues, saying: "'If we had tried to go in there and created more instability in Iraq, I think it would have been very bad for the neighborhood."' He also defended his boy's strong stance. LINK

Not for the first or last, Mr. Rove makes Doonesbury. LINK