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News summary

The Note, on the other hand, is gleeful.

And if you like politics at least in part for its contact-sport qualities, and for its "it doesn't matter so much what you say as much as when you say it" nature, you have our permission to salivate.

Before we tell you about Joltin' Joe's day (at least some of which will have occurred by the time you read this), check out these Invisible Primary tales found only in what some of you would consider to be lesser papers, but which we consider to be regional bibles.

In an apparent shot at some of his less experienced rivals for the Democratic nomination, Senator John Kerry said Friday night, in a Cornish, NH living room, in talking about the challenges of running for president and as documented by Glen Johnson of the Boston Globe : "'The agenda is enormous and this is not a time for neophytes,' Kerry said. He said the country needs people "who have been involved in the crosscurrents of our time.'" LINK

(Kerry also flexed some rhetorical muscle that seems reflective of his campaign's growing confidence: "'When I'm president of the United States, we're going to have early childhood education.'" Johnson writes today: "It was, according to an aide and a reporter who have witnessed nearly every moment of Kerry's fledgling presidential candidacy, the first time the Massachusetts Democrat had uttered such a statement in public, a flat-out declaration based on the assumption he will be elected president.")

And in South Carolina, also on Friday, Rep. Dick Gephardt called wartime President George W. Bush "'uninformed'" and "'inexperienced'" and said he "'has no curiosity … He is not up to this job, and he needs to be replaced.'" LINK

Let the games begin.

The Note tends to be more forgiving of foibles and slip-ups than the political press as a whole. It's just too early in the process for people to pounce all over these kinds of things with feeding-frenzy intensity. But they do serve as a reminder that none of the people running — including Dick Gephardt, Class of '88 — really are in position to know, from candidate to spouse to campaign staff, about the intensity and pressure of running for president in 2003-2004.

That brings us — coming, we hope and assume, more in sadness than in anger — to Joseph Isadore Lieberman. And his Bubby.

Lieberman is expected to announce today that he is pursuing a bid for the presidency, though how full-throated he will be about "exploring" versus flat-out "running" is still unclear.

And how much Lieberman will use his remarks to sketch out his vision for America — which the other would-be candidates are only just beginning to do themselves — remains to be seen.

Our sense is that Lieberman will do slightly more on these two fronts than the others have, but that he will save his "full" announcement — complete with a big speech and fly-around to key states — for later in the year.

At the same time, this is likely to LOOK more like a full-blown announcement than the others, with the event taking place at a more typical announcement venue, surrounded by family and friends, rather than announcing on TV, via a paper statement, etc.

Lieberman will declare his likely candidacy for president in Room 101 of Stamford High School at 10:00 am, then will do Q&A with reporters and students. At 11:00 am, he will have a discussion with an AP European history class, followed by a short motorcade to the Stamford Diner, arriving at 12 noon.

At 1:00 p.m., the motorcade will head to, yes, mom Marcia Lieberman's home.

Lieberman's announcement is of course historic, because of his 2000 veep candidacy as a Jewish American, and because he is currently the frontrunner in most national polls — although that's mostly due to residual name ID from 2000. He is not leading in any key early state polling.

Strip away his rise to national prominence through being picked by Al Gore; his religion; and his Northeast geographical base and ask yourself, will Lieberman — in setting the tone of his campaign beginning today, and going forward under attacks from his Democratic opponents and press scrutiny — run for his party's nomination with a Clinton-like call for his party to move to the center?

Or is he going to try to soft-pedal some of his past, more conservative positions in order to appeal to the left interests who still (despite all of Al From's hard work) dominate the nominating process?

Lieberman has a full week of events and interviews planned, with a bunch of post-announcement interviews today, and a two-day blitz of interviews (starting with Today on Wednesday morning) to promote the newsless campaign book he wrote with his wife Hadassah.

He will spend Tuesday in Connecticut finishing press interviews, then travel to New York Tuesday night to do the Today Show with his wife on Wednesday morning. He will spend the rest of Wednesday and Thursday in New York doing book interviews, including with Larry King and Charlie Rose.

Friday and Saturday, he's back to DC, where he will be down for the Sabbath.

President Bush has no public events currently scheduled for today, but the teeth-gnashing amongst the media and Democrats over his tax cut plan continues, and his party also will be doing some strategizing on an ongoing thorny issue. Dr./Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist will huddle with Republican National Committee Chairman Marc Racicot, Armstrong Williams, and some Administration staffers at the RNC headquarters at 11:00 am to talk about African-American outreach.

The meeting is closed, but Frist and Racicot are likely to offer some comments afterward.

The Washington Times ' Z. Hallow previews the two-hour confab. LINK

"A second meeting organized by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and Mr. Williams has been scheduled for Jan. 28 in Mr. DeLay's office, Republican sources said. House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert and 'the whole Republican House leadership' also will be there, a source said."

"Also scheduled to attend today's meeting at the RNC are two black Republicans from the Bush administration: Alphonse Jackson, deputy secretary of housing and urban development, and Leo Mackay, deputy secretary of veterans affairs."

"Later this month, for example, first lady Laura Bush and Mr. Frist will attend the annual Martin Luther King Day dinner in New York sponsored by the Congress of Racial Equality, a conservative civil rights organization."

Rockem' Sockem' Robots (get it — they were red and blue, at least back when we played) continues on Capitol Hill. The Los Angeles Times ' Hook offers her more Hill-oriented version of the Milbank Washington Post story from last week on Bush's big, bold opening pitch at the start of the new Congress. "Just one week into the new session … , President Bush already has made his mark on Capitol Hill with a determination — some would say hubris — that sets a combative tone for the year to come." LINK

"He unveiled a sweeping tax cut plan that made no concessions to Democratic sensibilities. He brashly renominated for the federal bench a controversial conservative judge whom Democrats rejected last year. And he practically dictated the first two bills to come before Congress: an extension of unemployment benefits and a big domestic spending bill that adheres to his own tight budget."

"For their part, Democrats pushed back with gusto."

"Bush's influence in Congress may be on display again this week, when the Senate is expected to take up a budget bill written to squeeze under the spending ceiling Bush wants, despite resistance from members of both parties."

The Washington Post 's VandeHei and Eilperin write up the House GOP's further consolidating of legislative muscle: "House Republican leaders, through a series of little-noticed rule changes and key appointments, are dramatically tightening their hold on power as they prepare to push for new spending cuts, bigger tax breaks and a more ambitious social agenda." LINK

Messrs Hastert and DeLay "have circumvented the seniority system to reward their most loyal allies with important chairmanships. They have systematically changed internal rules to seize greater authority over rank-and-file members, and they unexpectedly scrapped the eight-year limit on Hastert's reign. They also are cracking down on wayward members who frequently oppose party leadership positions."

"By centralizing power and demanding discipline, House Republicans are positioning themselves to push President Bush's agenda through the House and apply greater pressure on the closely divided Senate to adopt more conservative economic and social policies."

"In some cases, the Hastert-DeLay team wants to go beyond the Bush agenda. DeLay says the House should push for deeper tax cuts than the White House has proposed, even though several Republican senators say Bush's plan already goes too far. The Hastert-DeLay team also is mulling as many as six measures to curb abortions."

About the Bush tax plan … The Note predicted earlier that former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's first foray into political life post-axing would be, just … well, viscerally good (we also predicted that he would avoid directly criticizing the president, given the former Alcoa chairman's respect for the institution, if not the man).

"Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, in his first public comments since being forced out of the Bush administration in December, said money from the president's $674 billion tax-cut plan would be better spent on shoring up the nation's ailing Social Security system." LINK

"In an interview Friday for the KD/PG Sunday Edition television show and in comments afterward, O'Neill said he saw minor value in eliminating taxes on corporate dividends as proposed by Bush but added, "I would not have done it.'"

"O'Neill made clear he preferred to avoid direct criticism of Bush, even though it has been suggested their parting was less than amicable. 'I was never angry with the president,' he said, when asked about his abrupt departure. 'I was happy to leave.'"

"The former Alcoa chairman touched on his return to his hometown, where he will work to improve the way health care is provided and to promote patient safety. He said the model being developed locally could help cut health care costs in half nationwide. Health costs now account for 14 percent of gross domestic product."

"But most of his conversation, to be broadcast [Sunday] at 11 a.m. on KDKA-TV, focused on the economy, his views about leadership and his two-year tenure in the Bush administration."

"O'Neill said the current 6 percent unemployment rate is "not bad" when viewed in the context of the past 30 to 40 years. He said believes the economy, bolstered by "amazing" productivity gains the past five years, has the potential to grow at a 3.5 percent to 4 percent rate "for as far into the future as anyone can see" once the recovery takes root."

"In fact, he said, productivity gains have been one of the forces holding back employment as businesses learn to do more with fewer workers. Another challenge for the economy, he said, is accommodating the influx of immigrants entering the labor force — the economy must generate roughly 100,000 to 125,000 jobs a month just to absorb new entrants into the work pool."

"To achieve that level of job growth, O'Neill said, requires new ideas about how to do business. Unfortunately, creative leadership — in Washington and in many corporations — is often lacking."

On Tuesday, President Bush will make remarks on welfare reform and meet with the president of Poland.

He has no public events currently scheduled for Wednesday.

Thursday, he will travel to battleground state Pennsylvania to give a speech on medical malpractice tort reform.

And on Friday, he currently has no scheduled public events.

Pickering redux/"affirmative access"

Janet Hook notes in her story: "Many Democrats assumed Bush would not renominate Pickering … But one Senate source close to the administration said the White House concluded that it would pay a greater price by not nominating him and suffering criticism from its conservative political base." LINK

"What's more, one aide to a senior Democrat on the Judiciary Committee said, Pickering could serve a tactical purpose for Bush by drawing most of the left's political fire, making it easier for other conservative jurists to win confirmation."

"If President Bush decides not to participate in the Supreme Court case over whether public universities should favor racial or ethnic groups in their admissions, it would run counter to his administration's record of involvement in cases before the high court," asserts a Washington Times news analysis piece. LINK

The economy

Icky Wall Street Journal lead: "The nation's labor market is experiencing one of its most protracted slumps in post-World War II history, and economists don't see it getting much better in the next few months."

Arthur Laffer's Wall Street Journal op-ed says that the state budget crises (particularly the one in the Golden State) threaten the 43 CREEP.

Budget politics

Speaking of the Golden State, the Los Angeles Times , continuing to pick apart Gov. Gray Davis' approach to his state's fiscal crisis, reports that Davis' budget "steers clear of any new demand on corporate income, one of the deepest pockets it could have tapped to help close the state's revenue shortfall." LINK

"Davis' reluctance to tamper with business taxes reflects a nationwide shift away from fiscal policies that take more from the wealthy, a trend illustrated in President Bush's proposal to drop taxes on stock dividends."

Here's what the Wall Street Journal 's nimble Jeanne Cummings says the administration is doing: "Commerce Secretary Donald Evans and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao will visit small businesses in various cities that could benefit from the proposal, budget director Mitchell Daniels Jr. will speak to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and Vice President Dick Cheney will attend a luncheon of Senate Republicans to shore up support among skeptical members of Mr. Bush's own party."

"Meanwhile, Chief of Staff Andrew Card and Communications Adviser Dan Bartlett are doing editorial-board interviews with large metropolitan newspapers, and a couple of Treasury Department officials participated in Internet chats. The administration's business and conservative allies also are moving into war footing, hoping to build grass-roots support for the president's plan."

Not so "[p]rivately, White House officials are warning of a protracted battle to get the measure through the Senate. In a meeting late last week, political adviser Karl Rove told about 150 lobbyists and Republican activists that a final vote on the package isn't likely until around Memorial Day."

David Rogers updates the budget process (with a focus on its effects on his beloved intelligence programs) on A4 of the Wall Street Journal : "All this takes place as domestic Cabinet departments and foreign-aid agencies are operating without permanent appropriations for this fiscal year. Never in recent history has so much of the government drifted so long. The situation will continue at least into February as the administration tries to reach a compromise with the new Republican-controlled Congress."

Ron Brownstein, who never approved of the size of the first Bush tax cut, opines today: "Forget guns and butter: Bush is now offering bombs and caviar." LINK

"With this push to slash taxes during wartime, Bush broke from 140 years of history under presidents of both parties. In every major conflict the United States has fought since the Civil War (and some minor ones), Washington has raised taxes to pay for the war."

"By proposing large new tax cuts when Washington is already in deficit and facing growing costs for defense, Bush is threatening an explosive growth in the national debt."

Using a presumably unsolicited phone call from Commerce Secretary Evans as his hook, Dean David Broder writes that the Bush tax cut is dishonest. If the administration truly wanted to do something about dividend double taxation, they could have easily allowed companies to deduct the costs associated with the tax. By reducing the tax entirely, writes Broder, they turned a "sound" economic idea into a political football. Rich people will benefit more than business, he says. LINK

The New York Times finds four families around the nation who aren't much stirred (YET) by the Bush plan. LINK

The Washington Times ' Lambro asserts in his column that the press is too focused on the elimination of the tax on dividends and that the income tax cuts are more economically significant, "putting money immediately into worker paychecks to raise consumer spending and investment." LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Roger Simon wonders how many of the Democratic hopefuls have coldbloodedly assessed their chances of winning. LINK

Peggy Noonan vibe-tests the Democratic field: "Howard Dean, physician and former governor of Vermont, seems as bantamy and pugnacious as John McCain, and is proud of his outsider status … "

"Senator Joseph Lieberman … Would the historical meaning of a Lieberman presidency be: Am I fabulous or what?"

" John Kerry brings the weight of experience and knowledge. Almost every member of his freshman Senate class has run for president, a fact he mentions. He wears his experience as if it were not a suit or a shield but a kind of gravity that hovers around his head, forcing his face and shoulders down."

"John Edwards doesn't bring gravity. He seems light, smooth and amiable."

"Dick Gephardt gives off a vibe of tired niceness. He is nice; it's part of who he is and part what he does. But he's tired of Congress. He long wanted to be speaker, and he realized that likely wouldn't happen for years, and minority leadership is full of less-interesting headaches."

"Former senator Gary Hart is talking about getting in, and so is Al Sharpton. Mr. Hart is interesting, intellectual and independent. He carries on his back a question: Has he mellowed much? Has he gotten more strange or less? When you hear him speak, you wonder less about his brain and the extent to which it is engaged with a discernible philosophy, than about what seems his spiky personal oddness."

"As for Mr. Sharpton, he's running not for president but for Party Powerbroker Who Must Not Be Ignored."

In case you missed Tom Edsall's not-to-be-missed money story from yesterday: LINK

Speaking of, this is the first of these that we've seen — a direct appeal for money based on President Bush's re-election campaign. "Please accept the challenge of helping President George W. Bush carry Michigan, earning our seventeen electoral votes, and winning re-election in 2004 by renewing your membership today with a contribution … " LINK

OK, we give up — there's now too much Invisible Primary news out there for us to lump it all together. We are now in a Sections Required Zone.

LIEBERMAN

The Connecticut papers splash their hometown boy's big announcement as if it were huge and surprising news. It is, however, endearing to read favorite son coverage.

Stamford High School on Strawberry Hill Avenue has been the "touchstone" for just about every big political event in Senator Lieberman's life. LINK

Matthew and Rebecca Lieberman will rejoin the campaign trail with their father. LINK

Stamford, CT apparently speaks with one voice … LINK

IOWA

Remember: Saturday brings the Linn County, IA Democratic fundraising dinner, which is drawing Dean, Kerry and Gephardt.

Is Kerry's crafty Iowa campaign manager playing the expectations game? "'There's some ground to be made up for us,' John Norris" tells the Boston Globe 's Miga. "'The other candidates have met and talked with a lot more Iowans than John Kerry."' LINK

(Miga gives Lieberman a "leg up" on Kerry in Iowa, despite Lieberman's lack of support for ethanol.)

"Norris estimated that Kerry, in three brief visits to the state as a prospective candidate over the past year, has spent less than a total of 48 hours in the state."

The Des Moines Register assess the impact of Gephardt's candidacy on the Iowa caucuses: "While Rep. Dick Gephardt's entry into the race for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination makes him the instant front- runner for the Iowa caucuses in 2004, political insiders agree an early favorite will not diminish activity in Iowa and may even invite more." ( LINK

"That's because the Iowa caucuses have long been as much about beating expectations and building momentum as they have been about winning or losing. Gephardt, in fact, may need to rein in expectations or be viewed as failing to meet them if he doesn't win Iowa convincingly."

Find out how much Iowa state employees get paid. LINK

NEW HAMPSHIRE

We love Glen Johnson's Sunday lead: "It was hard to miss Senator John F. Kerry's visit to New Hampshire yesterday: He was the lanky presidential contender wearing the white cap and neon ski boots, racing down the slopes in a charity ski match sponsored by the most widely viewed television station in the state." LINK

"Instead of arriving at Manchester Airport to a waiting bank of television cameras, as has been the case with Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and other likely contenders, Kerry has slipped across the border out of the spotlight, not for public appearances but for private meetings with political activists and fund-raisers."

"Kerry is campaigning quietly to win over the political operatives who can make the difference between winning and losing in the primaries. 'I think the key people that I've wanted to get, I've gotten so far,' the senator said yesterday after his second and final race."

State Rep. Jane Clemons of Nashua, "the Democratic Party chairwoman in a key city, has committed to supporting Kerry. She is one of four Kerry backers already identified on a list of the top '105 Politicos' up for grabs in the coming primary, as tracked by PoliticsNH.com, a Web site focused on state politics. The only Democratic presidential contender with more" is Gephardt.

"As early as this week, the Kerry campaign is expected to announce its New Hampshire campaign manager and communications director. It is believed that a much sought-after figure has agreed to manage the campaign."

"Gephardt will be expected to win the Iowa caucuses, since he comes from a border state. The same will be expected from Kerry in the New Hampshire primary, for the same reason. If either Gephardt or Kerry fails to reach those bars, the advantage could go to anyone else in the field who stages a surprise in the two lead voting states."

With the field basically set, the wooing of New Hampshire voters begins. LINK

MISSOURI

Instead of Iowa, Jo Mannies wonders whether the others will "cede" the former House Minority Leader his home state primary, now taking place on February 3. LINK

SOUTH CAROLINA Knight Ridder's Thomma, in writing up the flood of Democrats into the '04 presidential ring, reports, "The South Carolina party will hold its first primary debate on May 3 — about nine months before voters there vote." LINK

Is Sandra Fowler any relation to Don and Donnie? LINK

THE VALLEY

Roll Call 's Pershing writes up the Valley Primary (as in Silicon), saying that it's pretty much up for grabs, though Kerry is making headway. "While it's still too early to handicap the race definitively, local observers agreed that Kerry and Senator Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) are currently the best-positioned candidates in the high-tech world." LINK

"Several area Democrats said Kerry's relative strength at this point is based on his near-constant presence in the Bay area — he has made about a dozen trips there in the past two years — and his aggressive courtship of local players. He has already scored something of a coup by signing up Stone and Mark Gorenberg of Hummer Winblad Venture Partners, a key operative from former Senator Bill Bradley's (D-N.J.) 2000 campaign."

"Kerry will be in the Bay area on Wednesday and will do five events in San Francisco, Mountain View and Santa Clara. He will be back in San Francisco on March 13 for a high-profile fundraiser. Co-hosts will include Randlett, Gorenberg, Stone, David Pine of Handspring, David Roux of Silverlake Partners and Chris Larsen of E-Loan."

"While Kerry's stance on technology issues is thought to be strong, Lieberman has developed a reputation much like that of his former running mate Gore as a pioneer in the field."

"A Lieberman aide said the Senator did not currently have anything scheduled but that he planned to make 'frequent trips' to the Bay area this year."

"While Lieberman and Kerry are known quantities, Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.), who was scheduled to be in the Bay area this weekend, is more of a wild card. His relative obscurity could even be an asset, as many technology leaders are predisposed to fresh faces and new, forward-looking ideas."

"Compared to the Senate contenders, Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) has an entirely different set of assets and liabilities. He is certainly a familiar face in the Bay area, and his fundraising efforts for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have taken him to the region frequently in the past five years."

"Gephardt could also be aided by the fact that all of the House Members who represent San Francisco and Silicon Valley are Democrats … "

"On the policy front, the former Democratic leader could be hampered by the fact that he is not a moderate on economic issues and is well-known in the region as an opponent of free trade."

"A Gephardt aide argued that his trade stance isn't a hindrance among those executives who understand the nuances of his position."

And make sure you clip and save Pershing's who's who of the Valley's most active fundraisers.

DEAN

Tomorrow, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean will address the New America Foundation and the Atlantic Monthly Policy Forum at the National Press Club. On Thursday, Dean will be in Atlanta for a reception and to speak at the Atlanta Executive Network's monthly meeting.

EDWARDS

Senator John Edwards likes I.F. Stone more than Bob Novak likes I.F. Stone. LINK

The Wall Street Journal has some correction on A2 about Edwards, but frankly, we don't understand it.

In his piece comparing Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D), the Raleigh News & Observer's Christensen writes, "Republicans also hope to draw a contrast between Dole's emphasis on North Carolina issues, while Democratic Senator John Edwards travels around the country seeking the Democratic nomination for president." LINK

GEPHARDT

Rep. Dick Gephardt traveled to South Carolina on Friday, where he called the president ill-equipped for the job, as Noted above; toured some with Rep. John Spratt, who is backing his presidential bid; praised influential Rep. Jim Clyburn to the skies; and, after some equivocation that got well-documented by the venerable Mr. Bandy, denounced the flying of the Confederate flag.

"After initially declining to take sides on the flag issue during a Columbia visit Friday, Gephardt clarified his position in a statement released by his presidential exploratory committee," Bandy writes. "He denounced the flag and said it should be removed from 'any official display anywhere in the state.'" LINK

In addition to releasing a statement, the Gephardt folks also called the paper, per a Gephardt source.

"In an interview with The State on Friday, Gephardt was asked about the NAACP's call for economic sanctions against South Carolina to protest the flag's continued display on the State House grounds. Seeking support for his nascent presidential bid in a one-day trip here, Gephardt at first declined to take sides … "

"S.C. NAACP president James Gallman and Columbia NAACP president Lonnie Randolph criticized Gephardt on Friday for equivocating on the issue. Gephardt acknowledged Saturday he was 'too cautious' initially in stating his views on the flag."

Gephardt did roll out some components of an agenda during the South Carolina trip, in addition to attacking the president. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Shesgreen reported on Saturday, "Rep. Richard Gephardt took his nascent presidential bid to South Carolina on Friday, wooing activists in this key primary state with a message of redirecting tax cuts to health care and a stronger homeland defense."

Gephardt "called for canceling future tax cuts scheduled to be phased in over the next eight years as part of the $1.35 trillion tax cut Congress passed in 2001. He said he would redirect that money into tax incentives for businesses to provide health care to their employees."

"'It's a major change in tax policy,' he said in an interview later. 'The thing that distinguishes this (from other health care proposals) is it's a feasible idea, something that could pass.'"

"Gephardt said he would unveil the details when he formally announces his presidential bid."

"He also touted a proposal for universal preschool, a teacher corps program and increased funding for homeland defense."

Gephardt also got weekend press coverage of his call for the president to renominate Missouri Supreme Court Justice Ronnie White to the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals.

GRAHAM

Senator Bob Graham certainly sounds like a man who's made up his mind. RNC oppo researchers: better open a Graham file if you don't already have one.

"Blurting that "I am going to be the next president of the United States,' U.S. Senator Bob Graham said Saturday that he has begun building a political team to put him in the White House." LINK

"Making his most pointed comments to date about a potential presidential campaign, Graham said he is interviewing potential campaign managers this week and that he has met with pollsters and media consultants — the key building blocks of any big-time campaign."

"It indicates that I'm serious enough that we are getting down in the details of strategy for victory and trying to find the people who can execute that strategy,' he told The Herald."

"Speaking to reporters after an address to a group of environmental activists, Graham could barely contain his excitement about running — although he said he still needs a few more weeks before making a final decision."

"Graham silenced a roomful of reporters and his own aides when he waved off as 'pessimism' questions about whether he would reenter the Senate race next spring if he loses important early presidential primaries."

"I'm not running for president. I am going to be the next president of the United States,' he said, shaking his hand in the air."

"Yet he quickly softened that pronouncement, explaining that he simply meant his goal would be winning the White House, not merely becoming a candidate."

"If I run, it is not going to be to be just in the field, but with the expectation of victory."

George Will historically gives most every Democrat running for president one column in which he lays out a lovely sugar-plum vision of their candidacy, making the case for why they might be strong contenders for the nomination and, often, strong general election candidates (before ripping them, and their party, to shreds for the match-up against whomever the Republican is).

This week, Will forgives Graham for those diaries he keeps, casting them as the very model of a modern anti-Clinton. ( LINK

While Graham ponders, political dominoes in Florida teeter. LINK

SHARPTON

The New York Times ' Nagourney gives Al Sharpton his turn in the profile series, making this macro point: "Aides in competing presidential camps describe Mr. Sharpton's candidacy as little more than a distraction, a quest on the fringe that will ultimately have little bearing on the Democratic presidential competition." LINK

"Yet Democrats acquainted with Mr. Sharpton's style and skills suggest that might be a miscalculation. Many Democrats say he could prove to be a constant and potentially unwelcome complication for the other Democrats seeking to challenge President Bush."

On "Meet," Tim Russert tried to get Sharpton to explain those fundraisers he seemed to have held last year that are still vexing us:

RUSSERT: Have you been raising money before filing the campaign exploratory committee?

SHARPTON: No. We're not in fund raising mode as of yet.

Which still leaves us confused.

BIDEN

Senator Joe Biden says he'll make his decision about a presidential run by the fall, which is sort of like saying you'll decide whether the coffee is too hot after it's been sitting out for an hour. ( LINK

DASCHLE

Senator Daschle dodged George Stephanopoulos' question on "This Week," so we still don't know what Daschle did during those three or so hours before getting out of the race. Which means we still have pretty free reign to make it all up for the play we are working on fictionalizing the whole thing.

THE CONVENTIONS

Bob Novak forgives himself (and, sorta, his sources) for his heavy lean into the notion that New Orleans was going to get the Republican convention. LINK

"Mayor Michael Bloomberg, accused by Republicans of losing the party's 2004 national convention because of his pugnacious attitude, ended up saving the event for New York with a last-minute sales pitch."

"Bloomberg offered a sweetened economic guarantee and a mediation plan to ease Republican fears of labor troubles. Although word had spread through GOP channels that New Orleans was in the lead for the convention, no decision had been made until Bloomberg's final offer."

Bob: which "GOP channels" are those, exactly?

The New York Times this past weekend wondered whether the GOP convention would help local Republicans as much as it may help the national guys. LINK

Politics

We could have spent our weekend trying to break the story of who the Democratic Governors Association is going to tap to give the response to the president's State of the Union address ("SOTU" in Notespeak), but, well, to give you an idea of how busy we were, we still haven't seen "The Hours."

Anyway, the story is going to break in the next news cycle or two, and if we were you (and we aren't), and if we were the betting type (and we aren't), we would put our money on what we call a "non-white-male."

Here's the list; make your own guesses. LINK

In case you missed it, Roll Call 's Chappie warns, "In an emergency meeting of the U.S. Sentencing Commission" last week, a "five-member panel unanimously voted to dramatically stiffen the penalties for violating the new Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, making it more likely that donors, campaign officials and even candidates could face prison terms for criminal violations of the law." LINK

"Under the criminal provisions of the new law, the Federal Election Commission will have less discretion to enforce the statute under civil proceedings. And the sentencing guidelines give criminal prosecutors a formidable tool — the threat of incarceration — that can be used to force compliance with the law's restrictions on contributions and other campaign activities."

Senators Nickles and Clinton make beautiful music together, and somehow Carl Hulse thinks that is news. LIN K

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal ed board attacks Tom Daschle (and, somewhat more softly, Joe Lieberman) for obstructing the president's agenda in the Senate.

The not that dirty, not that little secret in Democratic circles for the past several weeks has been Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's search for a message meister. Roll Call 's Billings reports on the headway made so far — that Pelosi is consulting with former Clinton mouthpieces Mike McCurry and Joe Lockhart, and that former Senator George Mitchell spokesperson Diane Dewhirst has been playing headhunter. But no clear contender yet. LINK

"Under the plan, sources said, [Pelosi communications director Brendan] Daly and the new adviser would be equal in stature but have different roles. Daly would continue to field reporter inquiries and manage day-to-day press operations. The new adviser, on the other hand, would adopt a broader strategic role and 'take a longer-term picture and see where things fit,' Daly said. That individual would also focus on a strategy to reach out to voters beyond the Beltway, according to one Democratic insider."

Lots of Democrats are quoted approving the plan.

"One name being mentioned is Barry Toiv, former Clinton White House deputy press secretary who is currently working for freshman Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.)."

Senator Schumer's patented "if I hold a press conference on a Sunday, I'll make the Monday tabs" gambit is rewarded with this New York Post headline: "Chuck: Cut Wait For Breast Test."

Bad news is no news: where else have you heard the fact that the number of children without health insurance declined for the fifth year in a row? LINK

Mike Allen profiles young African-American Republican politico and unsuccessful House candidate Dylan Glenn. "Among national Republicans, he is known as one of the party's most promising weapons for reaching young African Americans." LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality

It's a slow time at the White House (not much going on … ), so Elisabeth Bumiller takes time to write about squirrels, complete with shaggy dog lead. LINK

First, the administration wielded the war as one-half of their rationale for running a deficit. Now the Pentagon is pleading wartime needs in seeking congressional relief from "environmental regulations that protect endangered species and critical habitats on millions of acres of military training ranges across the country, saying those controls impede crucial exercises and combat readiness." LINK

Along the same line, David Broder reminded us yesterday in his Outlook piece that Bush "did not campaign as an enemy of the federal government. But he claimed that he would limit its growth and power." And, well, look at it now. LINK

At first we thought the headline of his column — GOP Senators Unhappy — was just the dummy text for Bob Novak's column, because nearly all of his columns are about unhappy GOP Senators or are based on chats from unhappy GOP Senators.

But Novak's habits of mind were greased by reality this time. He got a read-out from the closed-door Senate Republican Conference meeting at the library of Congress: "No senator more solidly supports Bush's national security policy than John W. Warner, the 75-year-old chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who was re-elected last year to a fifth Senate term from Virginia without Democratic opposition. A veteran of the Navy (World War II) and Marine Corps (Korean War), and a former secretary of the navy, he has devoted long public service to American's national defense. " LINK

"Consequently, Warner had his colleagues' attention when he addressed Card in stentorian tones. 'I will not tolerate,' he boomed, 'a continuation of what's been going on the last two years.' He cited cavalier treatment that denies information even to the venerable top Senate Republican on Armed Services. To specify who he is talking about, Warner said he had breakfast scheduled the next morning with Rumsfeld and would tell the secretary of defense the very same thing."

"Next up was Senator Pat Roberts, a former Marine officer who has spent the last 40 years on Capitol Hill as a staffer, House member and (since 1996) a Senator. Roberts, a plainspoken Midwesterner from Dodge City, Kan., is the new Senate Intelligence Committee chairman. He told Card to mark him down agreeing with everything Warner just said. Roberts long has been frustrated by lack of information on national security issues but has not publicly complained."

"Senator Kit Bond of Missouri, another Bush backer who keeps criticism to himself, next got up to tell Card that the administration had better put out more concrete information justifying military action against Iraq as part of the war against terrorism. 'What is the connection between Iraq and Al Qaeda?' Bond asked. 'Don't worry,' replied Card, indicating the information would come along."

Media

Imagine someone sending Katie a chicken-fried steak. Howie Kurtz tickles us with some old morning show intramural hijinks from Bob Schieffer's autobiography: "In Schieffer's folksy style, the book pokes fun at people but never draws blood." LINK