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Even with war and the economy front and center, politicians, consultants and yes, particularly political reporters tend to fixate on long-running controversial social questions like — just looking at today's menu — affirmative action (or "access," as the White House calls their version), abortion, welfare reform, and the Confederate battle flag.

No one really knows whether or not these issues, and the two sides' positioning on them, will make a difference in 2004, but any viable incumbent president or presidential candidate is going to simultaneously be playing offense and defense on them — yes, even in Times Like These, with Iraq, North Korea, and striking workers all percolating — because they still seem to pack the emotional wallop to motivate voters.

In dealing with these issues, and in general, the root of the genius of the macro Bush political strategy is twofold: 1) steal every smart idea from past successful presidents, including and perhaps especially Bill Clinton; and 2) on hot-button social issues, find a way to keep the base happy without riling up the other side (in this case, liberals).

George W. Bush did not seem to pay a price in the 2000 campaign for being pro life, in part because Al Gore didn't talk much about abortion, and in part because the partial-birth abortion debate and other factors seemed to make the country less tilted toward the pro-choice position.

But Democrats are insisting the president will start to pay a price on that issue now. Ditto on the University of Michigan affirmative action question — if the administration makes the "wrong" decision, some seem to think the Republican party is likely to pay a price among minorities.

What the Bushies hate more than anything else is to get caught using Clintonian methods and language to achieve strategy #2 above.

Clinton often dealt with hot-button issues by explicitly enunciating a "Third Way," a solution to a thorny problem that was cast as neither liberal nor conservative, neither Democrat nor Republican.

Bush, because he doesn't want to be compared to Clinton, rejects the explicit Third Way label, but (and stem cells is the best example here) he regularly goes straight to the Clinton playbook for the answer to a short-term, and sometimes also a long-term political problem, by splitting the substantive and (more commonly) rhetorical difference.

What makes Bush in some ways even more impressive than Clinton is his capacity to keep the Republican base and every conservative activist this side of Paul Weyrich and Gary Bauer completely on the reservation, even while soft-peddling some of what the base would otherwise want.

In the end, Clinton was in most cases able to satisfy the activists in his party by saying he was a loyal member by "heritage, instinct, and conviction," but he sure pissed off a lot of Democrats along the way.

The difficulty in trying to strike this balance is that a president who does it often gets accused of being "political" (and 43 should ask 42 about THAT)

And the problem of appearing "political" is creeping in on the White House's handling of some of these social issues, as well as elsewhere.

Writing in the pro forma just-the-facts AP style, Scott Lindlaw is positively Fournierian in saying, "Like their boss, White House staff members publicly wave off questions about the 2004 race, insisting they are focused on setting good policy," while at the same time referring to tomorrow's Pennsylvania medical malpractice event as a a "whack John Edwards" day. LINK

Lindlaw has written that rarest of modern commodities: a must-read wire story, which strangely doesn't get a lot of play today.

The White House's chief line when asked to respond on the record to anything any of the Democratic candidates say is (and Ari's deputies are awesomely on message when they dole this out) a version of "the Democrats have to sort out all the problems they have among themselves, and when that is done, the president will welcome his opponent into the race."

That's a harder position to sustain when you are, even on background, attacking candidates by name.

And one can look awfully political, for instance, in filing legal briefs on deadline after a series of floats and semi-public ruminations.

(For more from Lindlaw must-read stuff, see "The Invisible Primary" below.)

So today, both the president and his Democratic rivals are on the line with a bevy of controversial issues bubbling up, presenting a short-term governance question for the president, and with potential 2004 implications.

The Democratic presidential candidates don't get to take a walk on all of these issues, particularly on abortion and the Confederate flag (and they have their own trouble spots, too, like guns).

Tomorrow as you know is the deadline for the White House to weigh in on the University of Michigan affirmative action cases before the US Supreme Court. The Washington Times and others reported earlier that Bush will oppose the university program; the papers today offer some clearly leaked details on the crafting of the brief.

Seems like a pretty safe bet that the White House, in coming out against the program, will use political language in a legal document, supplemented by Ari Fleischer at the podium, to stress the president's commitment to equal opportunity, while legally opposing Michigan's system.

As Judy Keen sets it up in USA Today : "The move carries considerable political risk. It comes at a time when top Bush adviser Karl Rove is weighing how to please the president's conservative base and at the same time improve his standing among Hispanic voters." LINK

"In 2000, Bush campaigned against racial quotas and affirmative action preferences. The White House plans to tell the Supreme Court that there are better ways to foster diversity."

"Details on how to frame the brief were still being debated. Among the issues is whether to use the case to make a broad statement against racial quotas or to stake out a more limited challenge to the program's constitutionality."

Administration "officials said Bush … plans to pay tribute to the value of racial diversity in higher education. But he plans to argue that Michigan's approach is flawed," write the Washington Post 's Allen and Lane. LINK

"Conservatives said they worry that a compromise brief from the administration will send an equivocal signal to the justice generally considered to hold the swing vote in the case, Sandra Day O'Connor."

"Both administration officials and conservative opponents of affirmative action depicted Bush's planned position as a political compromise forged amid intense negotiation."

With Ward Connerly as the lead quote, the Washington Times reports, "Leading opponents of racial quotas have told the White House that anything less than full support in their Supreme Court fight against discriminatory preferences at tax-supported universities would be worse than no support." LINK

"Several of those pushing for a tougher stand in a key case involving the University of Michigan used the words 'squishy' and 'wishy-washy' to describe what they fear President Bush will submit to the court tomorrow."

And the New York Times has similar stuff from Roger Clegg. LINK

The Washington Times ' editorial page applauds the seemingly imminent move but warns that, "as opponents of racial discrimination, we are still watching closely to see what is in that brief." LINK

All of this is of course unfortunately timed (for the White House), taking place right before Martin Luther King Day, which reminds us: who knew that Dr./Senator Bill Frist would share the stage at Monday's MLK night CORE dinner in New York with (along with Laura Bush) Rosa Parks, Hank Aaron, and vibraphonist Roy Ayers? Comedian George Wallace is master of ceremonies.

On abortion, the New York Times ' Nagourney previews the upcoming NARAL dinner, where the Democratic Six Pack will take the stage. LINK

"Aides to the Democratic candidates argued that the issue of abortion rights could prove to be unusually effective this year because of the likelihood of retirements on the Supreme Court and pressure on Mr. Bush, should they occur while he is president, to appoint a justice who might overturn Roe v. Wade."

"'It is entirely possible that choice will play a very significant role in this election — perhaps the biggest in presidential history,' said Jim Jordan, the campaign manager for Senator Kerry. 'I think there is a growing awareness among women, particularly among younger women, that the right to choose is in real jeopardy.'"

(Note to the Boston Globe desk: this Jordan guy is seeming less "press-shy" than you characterized him as being.)

"But there are differences among the Democrats as well, and the coming dinner seems likely to draw attention to them."

For what won't be the last time, Rep. Dick Gephardt's pro-choice bona fides are challenged.

And for another sense of the divisions within the left, check out this New York Times op-ed by a woman named "Peggy Loonan" (ah, the preponderance of "Peggy Noonan" jokes this woman must hear!), who believes that NARAL is too centrist and accomodationist. LINK

But the AP's Loven soars and shines in teasing out what close Bush observers have seen over and over in his dealing with the life issue: "President Bush pleased anti-abortion activists Tuesday by declaring a National Sanctity of Human Life Day and pledging his administration's commitment to 'build a culture that respects life.' 'As we seek to improve quality of life, overcome illness and promote vital medical research, my administration will continue to honor our country's founding ideals of equal dignity and equal rights for every American,' Bush said in a document that enacts no change in policy or program … " LINK

"He called unborn children 'those without the voice and power to defend their own rights.' But the president also stopped short of condemning abortion — or the cause of abortion rights activists — outright, using only the veiled language of the anti-abortion movement."

"As he has done throughout his presidency, Bush appeared to be seeking to burnish his anti-abortion credentials while trying not to alienate moderate voters."

"The six-paragraph document was enthusiastically received by anti-abortion activists, who said it precisely summarized the philosophy behind their movement."

Welfare reform is a slightly different case because while it's a thorny social issue, fiscal concerns in these deficit-running days are in some sense taking precedence. But the politics of race and class are never too far away.

"At the White House, President Bush called Tuesday for welfare recipients to work more hours," write the Los Angeles Times ' Chen and Simon. "In Olympia, Wash., and Lansing, Mich., and in state capitals around the nation, welfare officials asked: How?" LINK

"Facing their worst budget deficits in decades, state after state has cut back the support services designed to wean families from government checks."

The Washington Post 's Goldstein writes, "At a White House ceremony, the president made plain that the administration has not reshaped the approach to public assistance that it set forth a year ago, appealing to neither its critics nor its allies." LINK

"Yesterday's remarks, the third time in a year that Bush has used an East Room event to promote welfare changes, signaled the administration's hopes of taking advantage of its improved political strength on Capitol Hill."

Again, it's not like Dems have a layup on these issues, either, especially since they need to win in the South, where the Confederate battle flag remains perhaps the thorniest issue of them all.

Gephardt, trying to bounce back from his initial equivocation to some South Carolina press on whether or not the flag should continue to fly near the South Carolina statehouse, now has the satisfaction of seeing two Confederate battle flags at historic sites in his home state of Missouri get taken down. LINK

After appearing to hedge, Gephardt has swung to the other extreme, vowing to root out Confederate flags wherever they exist — even flags which haven't prompted complaints. LINK Senator Joe Lieberman said on a post-announcement conference call with South Carolina reporters that "he believes the banner should be removed." LINK

Meanwhile, the march in Georgia in support of the flag takes on added poignancy and dings a warning bell for the state's new Republican governor.

Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) would like the Georgia flag settled by a non-binding referenda. LINK

The Democratic Governors Association plans to announce today who will deliver the party's response to the State of the Union on January 28.

Our sources suggest that Washington state Gov. Gary Locke, who is now chairman of the DGA, will get the honors.

The Seattle Times's Postman writes that the speaking slot will help raise Locke's profile among national Democrats. LINK

"It also gives Locke the opportunity to burnish his Democratic credentials. Because of a state budget proposal that suspends three popular citizen initiatives and makes cuts in education, social service and health programs, Locke finds himself more popular among Republican lawmakers than his own party's legislators."

It's going to be the biggest speech of Governor Locke's career, and we look forward to seeing who he consults to add a bit more oooomph to his style. One suggestion, Governor: you might want to look at the tape of former Governor Whitman's try at this.

Budget Politics

Maureen Dowd pushes off the president's Gallup numbers to craft this: "Mr. Bush and Karl Rove may be disproving Santayana: They have dedicated themselves to learning from the history of the first President Bush, and yet they seem doomed to repeat it anyway." LINK

"Bush Senior was fired by voters who thought he was aloof from their economic suffering, overly consumed with foreign affairs and insulated by an inner circle of rich white patricians. He did little to appease his conservative base and, after the '88 campaign, chafed at being positioned by strategists. "

The Washington Times ' Dinan notes, "Senate Democrats are united in opposing President Bush's tax-cut package, but they haven't unified behind a plan of their own." LINK

"They have several options: an alternative offered by House Democrats, a plan put forth by the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, a scaled-down version of the president's package or a third Democratic proposal. Some Democrats say they won't support any tax-cut stimulus plan at all right now."

"Democrats said they do not underestimate the administration's power to attract senators' support."

"Some Democrats say the situation is different from 2001. 'The political landscape has shifted a lot since two years ago; that is, potential war with Iraq has kind of sobered people up a little bit,' said Mr. Baucus," who helped pass the president's tax cut in 2001.

"Maverick" Democratic presidential contender Gov. Howard Dean said yesterday, as reported by the AP: "'George Bush 41 had it right,' Dean said, referring to the president's father. 'It is voodoo economics, and Democrats ought to stand up to the president and say, "The right thing to do is repeal your tax cut because it did nothing to stimulate the economy and not talk any more about tax cuts until we've found, Mr. President, how we're going to pay our bills."'" LINK

"Dean said people in his party are 'so afraid to talk about that because they see the president's popularity and think, "Boy, people want tax cuts."'"

You don't have to be Clarice Starling to hear the states screaming with fiscal pain. USA Today has two pieces, one which looks are how expensive programs are practically beggaring the states (OK: our language, not theirs) — LINK -- and the other one looking at how "[s]tate and local governments are spending more money and hiring more people than last year, even as governors and mayors warn of draconian cuts in public services because of the economic slump." LINK

"The National Governors Association says states face the 'most dire fiscal situation since World War II.' But a USA TODAY analysis shows that most of the budget cuts being studied are not declines in spending from last year. Instead, they are reductions in spending increases that were approved when the U.S. economy was booming."

Legislative Agenda

The Wall Street Journal says: "Senate Republican leaders are considering using a filibuster-proof budget maneuver to renew their push to allow drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge."

"U.S. Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico, the new chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, said he believes the controversial Arctic-refuge provision will be included as part of this year's budget-reconciliation process. The committee, working in collaboration with the White House and the Senate Budget Committee, will put together a revenue-raising package that could result in a floor vote on the Arctic refuge as early as March or April."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

More from that awesome Lindlaw AP story:

"Now, regardless of who emerges, the White House feels the president's re-election will largely hinge on factors unrelated to who the challenger is — factors such as whether the administration can simultaneously revive the economy and manage a potential war … "

"He is to visit Iowa, which he lost by fewer than 5,000 votes, for the ninth time following his State of the Union speech late this month, according to several senior Republicans … "

"Gore's decision not to run has an upside for the president, the official said. Bush believes Gore would have lost in the primaries and whoever beat him would have been seen as a giant killer, with momentum."

"The same adviser said Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., would be the toughest foe because of his support in organized labor, his experience as a national candidate and his ability to raise money."

"Fund-raising power will be critical for Democrats trying to oust the president. A joke making the rounds at the White House holds that Bush's 2000 campaign chairman, Commerce Secretary Don Evans, could raise $200 million for next year simply by standing on a street corner with a tin cup … ." (A joke that sounds suspiciously like something The Note said, but we used Joe Allbaugh instead.)

"Bush successfully skipped public financing in the 2000 primaries, raising more than $100 million to carry him to the GOP nomination. He is expected to do the same next year. He accepted public financing for his general election campaign in 2000. It's too early to say whether he will take the public money in the general election next year."

(Another Note note: it might be "too early" but we are still trying to figure out scenarios — beyond a huge GOP fundraising scandal, or 43 suddenly deciding that Gail Collins is Yoda — under which the president WOULDN'T blow off the public money.")

"Several White House officials cite Senator Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., Gore's 2000 running mate, as a potentially strong challenger. He is an experienced fund-raiser and a business-friendly moderate with foreign-policy experience in the Senate."

"Senator John Kerry, D-Mass., could also present a challenge, several White House officials said. They say he has a proven fund-raising record, and personal wealth, though in the past, Kerry and his wife, Heinz foods heir Teresa Heinz, have decided against using their own money, which totals in the hundreds of millions of dollars, for campaigns."

"Other White House officials say Bush could easily attack Kerry as a Northeastern liberal. They are quick to point out he served as lieutenant governor to Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, whose failed 1988 run for president raised questions about whether a New England Democrat could ever credibly run for president again."

"Yet former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont is seen by some White House officials as potentially holding appeal for Democrats. While he is an unknown quantity to many people, some administration officials say he could bring an outsider quality that the rest of the field — overwhelmingly members of Congress — cannot."

John Harwood's Wall Street Journal column thumbnails each Democratic candidate's strengths by looking at the "slots" they command right now ("outsider," "Southerner," etc.), and says a certain Congressman from the Show Me State "has been largely overlooked but is the closest thing to a front-runner in the field since Al Gore abandoned the race."

The Washington Times ' Lambro bases a story on how the Democratic field is short on stature on the writings of MoDowd and Mr. Safire. LINK

Fred Wertheimer lays out his proposal to overhaul the public financing (a/k/a matching funds) system. LINK

A helpful hint to those of you on all sides of the aisle who want to get good coverage in the granddaddy of them all ("them all" here referring to those dinosaur newsweeklies that still reach a lot of voters): flattery is the key to influencing former Bradley Big Rick Stengel , who, the New York Post tells us today "has been promoted to edit the Nation section. 'I'll be overseeing Washington, politics and war stuff,' said Stengel." LINK

The fictitious "Walter Scott" makes up the following letter and answer in this coming Sunday's widely read Parade magazine: "Q. Why did President Bush announce that he intends to keep Vice President Dick Cheney as his running mate in 2004? — Norma Rosenberg, Fort Myers, Fla."

"A. Because Mr. Bush is relying on Cheney to help push through his domestic program, and he wanted to send a signal to Capitol Hill that the Vice President is no powerless lame duck. Despite the endorsement, we doubt that Cheney, 61, who's had four heart attacks, will be on the ticket. More likely, he'll announce in 2004 that he's bowing out in favor of a healthier candidate."

Iowa

Saturday's Linn County Sustaining Banquet is a must-see, according to the Quad City Times. LINK

"Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator John Edwards was unable Tuesday to land the Iowa Democratic Party's executive director as his Iowa caucus campaign director," the Des Moines Register reports. LINK

"Jean Hessburg, who became state party director in March, said Tuesday that she declined the offer made by former state party chairman Rob Tully, who is expected to be named Edwards' Iowa campaign chairman."

"'I love my job,' Hessburg said Tuesday. 'It's no reflection on Senator Edwards.'"

"Hessburg was director of the Iowa Democrats' 2002 coordinated campaign, which ran re-election campaigns for U.S. Senator Tom Harkin, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell and other Democratic candidates. Hessburg, a Waverly native, is the former campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Dave Nagle of Cedar Falls, who served from 1987 to 1993. She later ran People for the American Way, a Los Angeles-based national free speech and civil liberties organization, before returning to Iowa."

New Hampshire

Senator John Kerry leads the latest American Research Group New Hampshire poll, followed by a surging Gov. Howard Dean.

"Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters one year before the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. This latest survey indicates that Kerry and Dean are the early beneficiaries in New Hampshire of Al Gore's decision not to seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. Kerry and Dean are the only contenders with ballot preference in double digits, with Kerry at 27% and Dean at 15%. A total of 38% of likely Democratic primary voters, the largest block of voters, remain undecided in the race." LINK

That Granite State Democratic cattle call Will Lester hinted at in his recent story could well be the state party's 100 Club dinner in late February.

Dean

The Boston Globe 's Milligan gives nice enough treatment to Dean to probably thrill Kate and Susan, and make for some good fundraising mailers, though she notes that "the race has moved along much faster than the recently assembled Dean for President operation anticipated, leaving the maverick Democrat far behind in fund-raising." LINK

Edwards

Through the Senate reorganization, Edwards got to keep his Judiciary Committee slot. "The prominent position gives Edwards a high-profile venue from which he can review President Bush's judicial appointees while campaigning for the presidency." http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/news/politics/4949381.htm

The Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner points out that the debate over medical malpractice insurance and tort reform "could prove an early test of how Senator John Edwards' days in the courtroom affect his presidential ambitions." LINK

"During a trip Thursday to Pennsylvania, President Bush is expected to renew his call to cap jury awards for pain and suffering in malpractice cases at $250,000," a move which "many Democrats see as politically motivated."

"Edwards, a North Carolina Democrat who made millions handling malpractice cases as a trial lawyer, acknowledges that doctors are facing 'a serious problem.'"

"But Edwards said that imposing caps probably won't bring down insurance rates and that the federal government has no business imposing them in states that don't want them."

"Edwards said that he is not beholden to any interest group. 'When the interests of regular people and interests of trial lawyers or any other group collide, I will do what's best for regular people,' he said."

"Edwards' take on the issue will be backed up by a group of three consumer-advocacy groups that will announce plans today to weigh in against the president's proposals when he presents them Thursday in Pennsylvania."

Gephardt

The Gephardt team currently is using Ed Reilly, former head of KRC Research, former BSMG honcho, and Gephardt '88 pollster, as their campaign pollster in an unofficial capacity, according to Gephardt sources.

Nothing has been formalized yet. Per Reilly's bio: "Ed Reilly is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Westhill Partners and a nationally recognized communications strategist and business consultant … Mr. Reilly is highly regarded for his work with industries and companies facing rapidly changing market circumstances or intense competition … Since 1977, Mr. Reilly has worked as a campaign strategist to Democratic political candidates and continues to advise some of the party's leading figures on an informal basis. His experience as a political strategist also includes directing a number of successful political campaigns throughout Latin America, including in Colombia, Bolivia, Chile and Peru."

The Kansas City Star looks at Gephardt's PAC donations to local candidates in South Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa and elsewhere. LINK

"Gephardt's Effective Government Committee was especially thorough, giving to 116 candidates in Iowa, 127 in South Carolina and 59 in New Hampshire."

Graham

Senator Bob Graham has consulted with former President Clinton about a presidential run. LINK

Hart

Senator Gary Hart's next big events:

Friday, he's in Arizona at a Straight Talk forum.

Next Tuesday, he addresses the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on national security.

And next Wednesday, he guest-lectures to an Iowa State University class on "Political Corruption and Campaign Finance."

We'll keep you posted.

Kerry

Senator John Kerry spoke at an ANGLE breakfast in Los Angeles yesterday. ( http://www.angleonline.org/index.html )

ANGLE is an influential California-based gay and lesbian political and fundraising group. The crowd left, according to A Democrat Who Was There, "in full swoon." "It was a very sympathetic crowd and he got a standing ovation before his speech, after his speech, and after Q & A."

"If it was his stump speech, it wasn't that smooth. He was still funny and engaging. He played up his national security credentials several times (closing with the idea that Democrats need someone who is credible on national security and the war on terror, as Clinton stated). He mentioned he served in Vietnam at least four times as well."

"He ended with the idea of 'No Person Left Behind in America' (it seemed to be a Clintonesque phrase). The crowd was in full swoon."

Lieberman

Lieberman took care of South Carolinian reporters via conference call, too, though he declined to give a list of key state supporters.

"He promised to devote a lot of time and resources here," writes The State's Lee Bandy. "Lieberman, who was the party's vice presidential nominee in 2000, has visited South Carolina five times. He has always received a warm welcome, he said, and feels very much in tune with the voters in this state. He specifically cited his strong stance on national security and plans for reviving the economy." LINK

The Hartford Courant's Lightman believes that Lieberman's campaign kick-off, which was roundly praised for its smoothness and technical competence, should have had more staying power than it did.

"Still fresh from his Stamford presidential announcement, he should have been all over the airwaves, building on the momentum of Monday. Instead, the senator spent much of his day at his new campaign office a few blocks from the Capitol, making fund-raising calls and talking to potential supporters. He ignored the reporters clustered for hours outside the Senate chamber, waiting to talk to him. There were no major Lieberman pronouncements on national issues, no waves from the cars with wife Hadassah or prominent backers." LINK

"There are two reasons for the sudden silence. First, though he is now an official candidate for president, Lieberman is still assembling the traditional campaign machinery. Second, a scheduled high-profile hearing Tuesday on homeland security, which Lieberman planned to chair as one of his last majority party acts in the new Republican-led Senate, fizzled and evaporated in an inter-party dispute."

"Lieberman has not yet hired a national campaign manager. At the moment, his effort is being masterminded by longtime Connecticut aide and political strategist Sherry Brown." "Lieberman's deputy Senate press secretary, Adam Kovacevich, is taking vacation time this week and serving as campaign spokesman until a full-time press secretary is hired. There are some consultants on board with national experience, but the organization is not yet fully in place."

Sharpton

Rev. Al Sharpton makes Page Six AGAIN: "The Rev. Al Sharpton exchanging greetings with Revlon boss Ron Perelman at another table at Cipriani . . . " LINK

Politics

Dean Broder takes the New York Times to task for leaving House Speaker Denny Hastert off their recent list of 10 Republicans to watch, and ponders "the most powerful Republican outside the White House's" ongoing anonymity. LINK

The Hotline's Chuck Todd reel$ off some reason$ why congressional Democrats are going to have an uphill climb retaking control of either chamber of Congress in '04.

AFL-CIO consultant Steve Rosenthal managed to work details of a new labor-money project into a Harvard College talk yesterday--it's not clear whether the program referred to is his own, separate 527 venture.

"In preparation for the next election, the AFL-CIO is about to launch a new program to mobilize black, Latino and women voters, who have been vastly underrepresented at the polls in past years." LINK

"The $20-40 million program, scheduled to be operational in selected states by the end of February, will identify issues important to these voters to help the AFL-CIO find candidates representing their interests."

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack pledged reform during his State of the State address yesterday: "[He] challenged Iowans to shake up the status quo in an address to the Legislature Tuesday, setting far-reaching goals to reinvigorate the state's economy and dismantle its complicated property-tax system." LINK

His "radical" propositions might be too radical for David Yepsen. LINK

Here's a link to the text of his speech: LINK

Coming soon to Congress: a full debate about "partial birth abortion." A study released by the Alan Guttmacher Institute shows that while the number of abortions continues to drop, the number of partial birth abortions appears to have skyrocketed over the past four years. LINK

(We say "appears to have" because the methodology and question validity aren't entirely clear). LINK

Pro-life advocates weren't certain whether the new numbers would impact the wider world, but they hinted to The Note that this was favorable to a very rapid introduction of legislation.

B4A of the Wall Street Journal has a good story about e-voting and venture capital.

We WERE going to take a break in writing about Senator Gregg's chief of staff, Joel Maiola, even after his recent close work with new Gov. Craig Benson.

But then Business NH magazine named him one of the state's most powerful people.

At first, we chalked this up to there being no Democrats holding major elective office in the state.

But since W. once called Maiola "one of the greatest political minds in the country," we have to assume that the inevitable cameo in the next Austin Powers sequel is just around the corner. (Note to Note readers: this is sort of a Where Is Waldo? thing: can you find the five inside jokes embedded in this item?)

What's the hottest OPEN PRESS event in Washington?

The American Association of Political Consultants (www.theaapc.org), will kick off its annual convention in Washington tonight with a whiz-bang banquet sponsored by the National Rifle Association.

Key panels include a symposium on ethnic voters and changing political dynamics on Thursday afternoon; a look back at the 2002 elections with outgoing NRSC executive director Mitch Bainwol and new DSCC executive director Andy Grossman; a Friday morning roundtable on the media and the 2004 presidential elections (featuring CBS News Political Unit's Douglas Kiker, and ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin, as well as NBC's Campbell Brown, Fox News' Major Garrett, and not-Fox News's Judy Woodruff); and a Friday discussion of swing voters with pollsters Mark Mellman, Glen Bolger and Dave Beattie.

Saturday's morning panel will feature Messrs McMahon, Elmendorf and Smith chatting about Dean., Gephardt and Lieberman, respectively. Dr. William Schneider of CNN hosts. Charlie Cook will master the ceremonial handing out of the Pollie Awards around noon.

Here's a link to their full schedule: LINK

The New York Post (apparently) can't handle the truth: Senator Clinton is on Armed Services. LINK

"The Rev. Jesse Jackson's financial empire took a $3 million loss of revenue in 2001, newly released tax records show, as he continued to receive financial backing from companies he has threatened with boycotts over the years," says the Washington Times . "Mr. Jackson's primary funding mechanism, the tax-exempt Citizenship Education Fund, saw its contributions drop from $9.2 million in 2000 to $6.2 million in 2001." LINK

Rep. Mark Foley (R) floats his potential 2004 challenge to Senator Bob Graham (D) in the Washington Times . LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

US Undersecretary of Education Eugene W. Hicock denied to a New Hampshire audience that the president's education initiative would worsen the state's fiscal woes.

"Hicock defended the law and denied critics' contention that it amounts to a unfunded government mandate. Educators in New Hampshire and elsewhere have complained that the law will be difficult to comply with and expensive. The reforms require failing school districts to make changes. Schools can lose funding if they don't improve in areas such as: reading scores; assessment tests; and teacher quality." LINK

"'Nothing could be further from the truth,' Hicock said of the assertion that the legislation amounts to an unfunded mandate."

"'If you look at the law … first, the assessments are funded and secondly, in the future they shall be funded or states shall not be required to participate.'"

Look for more of these stories as the January 31 deadline for states to submit compliance plans nears.

Oh, and just asking: why did the administrator in charge of implementing the program — Assistant Secretary of State for Secondary and Elementary Education Susan B. Neuman — apparently abruptly resign this week?

Attention White House reporters, labor reporters, and other interested parties: there's a really intriguing Wall Street Journal lead editorial today about Eugene Scalia, Carpenters and Joiners "imperious president, Douglas McCarron," and President Bush's commitment to the "right" union policies. We urge y'all to check it out.

"The incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said yesterday that he expressed concern about a lack of full White House consultation with Congress on Iraq and North Korea as a means of 'instruction only,'" says the Washington Times . LINK

"Yesterday's public comments were the first by Mr. Warner since it was reported that he and other senior Republican senators grilled White House Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr. last week over keeping Congress largely out of the loop regarding important military matters."